Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Lopez Heats Up From Deep

Another installment of our daily NBA player prop picks is here, and today we're focusing on the big men to do damage. We'll hone in on Brook Lopez's hot shooting, Myles Turner's resurgence, and a certain Celtics player to cook the Wiz.

Nov 27, 2022 • 09:21 ET • 4 min read
Brook Lopez Milwaukee Bucks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s a packed NBA slate today featuring nine games, and we’ve pondered over every matchup and betting board to find the best value available in the NBA player props market.

For our three favorite daily NBA player prop picks we’re backing a pair of big men off to strong shooting starts in Brook Lopez and Myles Turner, and appreciating the slow growth to stardom that has Jaylen Brown set for a big performance against the Washington Wizards. Let’s dive in.

NBA player props for November 27

Picks made on 11/27/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best NBA bonuses

Looking to bet on some NBA action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2022.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Splash mountain

Is there a better nickname in all the NBA than “Splash Mountain,”? Not only is this a nod to Brook Lopez’s 7-foot 282-pound frame and his avid Disney fandom, it also celebrates his late career transformation into one of the NBA’s best shooting centers.

But at 34 years of age and coming off a season almost entirely disrupted by back surgery, it would have been fair to wonder how much the elder Lopez twin still had in the tank. 

He’s quickly put those concerns to rest. Lopez is playing some of the best ball of his Bucks tenure, returning to form as a centerpiece of the league's No. 1 defense while stretching opposing defenses to the breaking point with his outside shooting. 

Lopez is attempting 6.1 threes per game — just a hair below his career high — and hitting them at a career-best 40.4% clip. He’s in a particularly great rhythm recently, shooting north of 57% from deep over his last five games. He’s also generating nearly half of all his shots from three, the most since his first year with the Bucks in 2018-19. 

Impressively, he’s doing so while taking fewer assisted threes than at any point in his career and has one of the highest rates of 3-point self creation among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass.

The Mavericks' best lineups all involve them playing somewhat small at the four or the five, and often both — something that will kill them against the Bucks. When they have to send help in the paint to deal with Giannis’ size, the kick out to Brook is going to be wide open.  Dallas is also on heavy legs, having just played last night in Toronto. All that leaves “Splash Mountain” my favorite plus money bet on the board.

Brook Lopez Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+155)

A Turn for the better

Save for John Collins, there’s no player in the NBA that has found themselves in more consistent trade chatter the last several years than Myles Turner. The reasons are obvious. He’s young, he’s talented, and he has a skill set — interior defense and perimeter shooting — that contenders covet.

And yet when the Indiana Pacers elected to make a trade last year, it was his frontcourt partner Domantas Sabonis, not Turner, that was dealt. 

Now Turner is having a breakout season for the under-the-radar 11-7 Indiana Pacers. He’s shooting a career-high 46.7% from the arc, but that’s not even the reason I’m so bullish on his scoring. 

Turner is off to a hot shooting start from outside, yes, but that’s not the sole reason for his dramatic improvement. He’s fully embraced the Pacers' shift into a high-octane, transition-focused team, running the floor hard, make or miss, and getting great position. 

He’s shifted his shot diet away from being a 3-point specialist and more toward a multi-tool scoring big. He played so long having to share the court with Sabonis, and he’s thriving now that he can play more of the role of a traditional center.

His shooting frequency at the rim — 45% of his attempts — is a career high and a 12% jump over last season. He’s also hitting those shots at an outstanding 74% rate. His newfound aggression in the paint has led to a career-best free throw rate at 5.6 free throws per game, more than double his previous season’s average.

That’s all allowed him to score 18.9 points on an absurd 70.2% true shooting. That’s the highest such mark for any player scoring 15 points or more in the NBA this season. Higher than Jokic. Higher than Steph. Turner isn’t getting much publicity for his play yet, but that will soon change if the Pacers keep winning. For now though, he’s great value at this Over.

Myles Turner Prop: Over 16.5 points (-113)

Jaylen's growth

Jaylen Brown’s development into a superstar is like the old story of the frog slowly boiling in a pot of water. One day his numbers look pretty good, and then the next year they look a little better, and then one day, he’s 26 years old, and without totally realizing it you look up and he might be an All-NBA player.

It hits you in the face when you watch him play now, but it’s harder to pin down exactly when Brown “made the leap” so to speak.

Really, when you look at Brown’s progression just on a statistical level, there is no single-year jump we so often associate with great players. Instead, you find steady improvement in just about every area, culminating this season with career highs in usage, 2-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, free throw percentage, points (25.6), and rebounds (6.6). 

He’s come back after every offseason with a little something extra to his game, but instead of flashy moves, he’s mainly focused on refining his already potent game to a razor's edge. As much as people criticize Brown’s ballhandling, his development in that area has been immense, perhaps only outdone by his growth as a shooter.

Brown’s also shown steady growth as an offensive centerpiece, capable of generating shots off his own steam, and is scoring more unassisted buckets than at any other point in his career. 

For all that though, he’s the definitive Robin to Jayson Tatum’s Batman. But not on Sunday. Tatum is going to miss his twice-annual showdown with fellow St. Louisan Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards tonight, leaving Brown as the Celtic's No.1 offensive option. In such instances before, he’s seen a corresponding bump in usage and scoring, and that should be no different tonight. 

Jaylen Brown Prop: Over 25.5 points (-110)

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo