Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: LaVine Crashes the Glass vs Thunder

Nothing says Black Friday basketball betting like plus-money NBA player props. With a jam-packed schedule featuring 14 games, there is certainly no shortage of options.

Today, the focus is on a pair of plus-money 3-pointer props, as Gordon Hayward of the Hornets and Anfernee Simons of the Trail Blazers will look to let it fly from downtown in a couple of matchups that feature perimeter defense as relaxed as the waistband on a pair of sweatpants after Thanksgiving.

Here are my best NBA player prop bets for Friday, November 25.

(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to the Charlotte Hornets ruling Gordon Hayward OUT for their game tonight vs. the Timberwolves.)

NBA player props for November 25

• Hayward Over 1.5 made 3s (+102)
• Simons Over 4.5 made 3s (+126)
• LaVine Over 4.5 rebounds (-111)

Picks made on 11/25/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Open looks

The Rudy Gobert experiment for the Minnesota Timberwolves has been a mixed bag so far this season, particularly on defense. 

Obviously, Gobert is a fearsome presence in the paint and as a result, the Wolves rank 10th in defensive rating. But the problem is when they have both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor, they can have trouble stepping out and guarding the perimeter. Like, a lot of trouble. 

Minnesota allows the second-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA while ranking 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage, so even a poor offensive team like the Charlotte Hornets should be able to take advantage of that matchup. The player with the best value to do that is Gordon Hayward.

The Hornets’ small forward doesn’t take a ton of threes but his made threes prop is set at a low 1.5, and we’re getting close to even money. 

Hayward is taking a meager 3.8 attempts from beyond the arc per game but is hitting a solid 38.1% of those attempts. He has been shooting even better since recovering from a shoulder injury. Hayward is 6-for-14 (42.9%) from 3-point range over his last three games, hitting multiple attempts twice over that span.

He should get plenty of opportunities to hit multiple threes once again in this matchup against the Wolves.

Gordon Hayward Prop: Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+102)

Anfernee time

With Damian Lillard sidelined for the next few weeks with a strained calf, we know one thing is certain for the Portland Trail Blazers: Anfernee Simons is going to shoot. A lot. That isn’t going to change in Friday night’s matchup against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

Simons has no problem shouldering the load whenever Lillard is unavailable for the Blazers. Portland’s shooting guard is taking a big 20 shots per game whenever Lillard isn’t on the court this season, and most of those shots are coming from downtown. 

Simons has taken an average of 11.8 3-pointers in games where Lillard doesn’t play, hitting nearly 39% of those attempts. Simons is also hitting a solid 37.1% of his 3-point attempts for the season and he’s going to have a great opportunity to keep making it rain in this matchup against Knicks.

That’s because the Knicks’ perimeter defense is as lax as a pair of sweatpants after Thanksgiving. No team in the NBA allows more 3-point attempts per game, surrendering nearly 40 shots from deep every contest. At the same time, they rank a middle-of-the-pack 15th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Simons is averaging 4.6 made threes per game when Lillard is out, so with the boost he’ll get facing this suspect Knicks 3-point defense, getting this type of plus money feels like a Black Friday kind of value.

Anfernee Simons Prop: Over 4.5 made 3-pointers (+126)

High flier

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most entertaining young teams to this point in the NBA season. They play at an extremely fast pace and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been at an MVP level most of the season.

But, the Thunder still clearly have some flaws. They generally play a small-ball lineup and aren’t the greatest of shooting teams. A fast pace and missed shots mean one thing: a lot of rebounds are up for grabs in Thunder games. In fact, OKC ranks dead last in opponent rebounds per game and 28th in rebounding rate.

That makes the Thunder a great team to pick on when it comes to opposing rebounding props, which is exactly what we’ll do in their Friday night matchup against the Chicago Bulls. We won’t be going with the obvious Nikola Vucevic, with an elevated number of 11.5. 

Instead, let's look at shooting guard Zach LaVine. LaVine is a long and athletic guard who has no problem putting work in on the boards. He averages 4.1 rebounds per game for the season but he’s pulled down five rebounds in three straight games and in four of his last five.

So, LaVine’s rebounding number of 4.5 is much more reasonable considering the matchup against the Thunder.

Zach LaVine Prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (-111)

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