Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Rockets' Young Legs Takeoff vs OKC

It’s a jam-packed night with nine games on the schedule for basketball bettors to dig into. That means there is plenty of value to be found in the NBA player prop market.

Tell me if you’ve heard this before: Damian Lillard is lighting it up from beyond the arc and he’ll have a good chance to keep it up tonight against the Grizz. Then, we look at a pair of rebounding props as Jaylen Brown should clean the glass against the Nets while Kenyon Martin Jr. should take advantage of an undersized Thunder team.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, February 1.

NBA player props for February 1

• Lillard Over 4.5 3s
• Brown Over 6.5 rebs
• Martin Over 7.5 rebs

Picks made on 2/1/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Dame's time

Look out NBA defenses, Damian Lillard is entering another one of his patented hot streaks. Dame will undoubtedly keep letting it fly tonight when he and the Portland Trail Blazers visit Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies.

Dame is doing all he can to shoot the Blazers to victories right now. The six-time All-Star has been shooting the lights out over the last 10 games, draining 40.8% of his 11.8 attempts from 3-point range per game. Over the last four games, he’s been even better, going 23-for-47 (48.9%) beyond the arc.

Now, he gets a sneaky good matchup against the Grizzlies. Generally, the Grizz are a good-to-great defensive team. Memphis has a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Jaren Jackson Jr. and ranks second in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating.

Where the Grizzlies excel is in the paint, where they can clog everything up with their bigs, but they are susceptible to attacks on the perimeter. The Grizz allow the fifth-most 3-point attempts per game and a strong shooter like Dame can take advantage of that.

Lillard’s 3-point total is set at 4.5 for tonight’s matchup and we are getting nice plus money on the Over. He’s gone Over that number in five of his last 10 games and in three of the last four. Let’s back Dame to make it four of five.

Damian Lillard prop: Over 4.5 made 3-pointers (+120)

No luck needed

The Boston Celtics haven’t played at the same level as they were early on this season but have managed to hold on to the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, they’ll look to pad that lead when they host the Kevin Durant-less Brooklyn Nets.

No KD is a big reason that the Nets are 9-point dogs for this Atlantic Division matchup, but another reason the Celtics can cover this spread is that they have a big edge on the boards. The Nets rank next-to-last in the NBA in rebounding rate and 21^st in opponent rebounds per game.

Meanwhile, the Celtics rank a respectable 12^th in rebounding rate thanks to a team mentality where everyone rebounds. Tonight, we’ll focus on Jaylen Brown.

The Celtics’ wing is filling up the stat sheet this season and is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game this season. For the last two months (26 games), that number has bumped up to 7.7 per contest.

He has also hauled down seven or more boards 18 times over the last 26 games. That includes when Brown grabbed 10 boards in a December 4 meeting in Brooklyn. With a rebounding total on the board of 6.5 and the Over near even money, I’m backing Brown to have another good night on the boards.

Jaylen Brown prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+100)

No shock 

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets are in different stages of their respective rebuilds. The Thunder have some great pieces and a boatload of draft picks to pair with them, while the Rockets are firmly in the middle of the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

So, it’s not a surprise to see OKC laying 5.5 points on the road. While I expect the Thunder to pull out a win, the Rockets will have one big edge in this matchup, and that is on the glass.

Somewhat shockingly, the Rockets have the best rebounding rate in the NBA this season while the Thunder are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.

The Thunder are an undersized team to start with and they play plenty of small-ball lineups to boot, so it’s no surprise they rank 27^th in rebounding rate, but there are also a ton of boards up for grabs in Thunder games.

The Thunder play at a high pace and take the third-most shots per game in the NBA while, at the same time, rank 22^nd in effective field goal percentage.

So, my favorite Rocket to back on the boards in this spot is Kenyon Martin Jr. Since Martin became a regular starter for Houston in the middle of January (nine games), he is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game.

His rebounding total for this one is set at 7.5 and we are getting plus money on the Over. He’s gone Over that number three times in the last five games. I’m betting he makes it four of his last six.

Kenyon Martin Jr. prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (+120)

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