Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Doncic Stuffs Stat Sheet in Nuggets Rematch

It’s a light night in the NBA with just three games on the schedule but we’ve got some doozies. LeBron James returns to Cleveland when the Lakers take on the Cavaliers and two of the best all-around players go head-to-head when Luka Doncic and the Mavericks visit Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.

And with matchups this great, you know I’ve got some great NBA player props for you. While LeBron and the big men will get the headlines in Cleveland, I turn my attention to a guard with some upside. And who is the best bet to stuff the stat sheet tonight? Luka or The Joker?

Here are my best player prop NBA picks for Tuesday, December 6.

NBA player props for December 6

• Garland Over 2.5 made 3s (+100)
• Bogdanovic Over 2.5 made 3s (+146)
• Doncic Over 16.5 rebounds + assists (-115)

Picks made on 12/6/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Long-range Garland

The Los Angeles Lakers have been steamrolling the competition late thanks mostly to Anthony Davis being an absolute monster. And the big man will be the story heading into tonight’s matchup when AD and the Lakers travel to Cleveland and to take on Evan Mobley and the Cavaliers. (Yes, an even bigger story than LeBron James returning to Cleveland yet again).

But while everyone is focused on Davis and Mobley’s battle in the paint, I’ll turn my attention to the guard play. The Donovan Mitchell-Darius Garland combination has gotten off to a roaring success this season. Mitchell is averaging 28.4 points per game, with Garland coming in at 22.2.

You can expect that Mitchell will be Patrick Beverly’s top priority in this matchup, and I’m betting Garland takes advantage. Because despite Beverly’s presence, L.A. has not done a great job of containing guards.

The Lakers surrender the fourth-most points to opposing guards this season while ranking 26th in opposing guard 3-point attempts per game. 

Garland has been an excellent 3-point shooter this season, nailing 40.3% of his nearly seven attempts per game from long range. He’s also feeling it right now, going 10-for-24 from deep over his last four games, hitting multiple threes in each.

With all the attention being given to the big men and LeBron, I’ll happily take Garland to go Over 2.5 made 3-pointers at even money.

Darius Garland prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+100)

Can't bog Bojan down

Entering the season, everyone knew Detroit Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic was a sharpshooter. But even he had to be a little surprised by how well was firing the 3-ball at the start of the season. 

Bogdanovic began the year hitting three or more threes eight times in his first nine, games hitting a ridiculous 50% of his 7.3 attempts from 3-point range per game. His shooting hand was so hot, that trade rumors immediately started swirling around the Pistons’ small forward.

While Bogdanovic has cooled off a bit over the last month, that may just be giving us some betting value heading into tonight’s game in South Beach against the Miami Heat.

Because of Miami’s collapsing style of defense, the team has a tendency to give up a lot of attempts from beyond the arc. In fact, the Heat rank next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to opponent 3-point attempts per game this season, allowing 38 per contest.

Basically, the Heat aren’t going to give you anything easy inside and will live and die with their opponent’s ability to hit threes. And that is a matchup that sets up well for Bogdanovic. 

The Pistons forward is still hitting on 41.9% of his attempts from downtown on the season and is 7-for-10 from three over his last two games. Back Bogdanovic to find his rhythm in this matchup against the Heat, and go Over his made threes props.

Bojan Bogdanovic prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+146 at FanDuel)

Another Doncic dandy

Tuesday night pits two of the best box score stat stuffers in the NBA against one another when Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks visit Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. Jokic is the reigning two-time NBA MVP while Doncic is among the betting favorites to claim his first MVP award this season.

Tonight, we’re going to focus on Doncic. The Mavs’ superstar guard is filling up the bucket, going for 30 or more points eight times in his last 11 games. But that hasn’t hindered his ability to put up close to a triple-double almost every time he takes the court.

Doncic has seen an uptick in his assists over that 11-game stretch, dishing out 9.2 dimes per game. His rebounds are also up slightly to 8.7 per contest. That’s an average of 17.9 rebounds + assists per game in that span. Tonight, we're getting a total of 16.5.

That’s likely because the Nuggets are a good rebounding team, and Luka has actually fallen below that number in three straight games. But not by much. He’s also gone Over that number seven times in that 11-game stretch, including in back-to-back games against the Nuggets in mid-November. Doncic went for 12 rebounds and 11 assists in the first game, and nine rebounds and eight assists in the next.

While the Nuggets are solid on the glass, they are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in offensive rebounding rate and are 19th in opponent assists per game.

Give me Luka stuff the stat sheet once again in this one.

Luka Doncic prop: Over 16.5 rebounds + assists (-115)

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