We've got NBA action all day on Saturday, beginning with a noon showdown in New York, but I've got my eye on three later matchups with my favorite NBA player prop bets.
Today, I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Rudy Gobert, backing Anfernee Simons to continue taking care of the ball, and betting on Jabari Smith's strong play to continue against a Warriors team that might be winning but still sucks on defense.
Here are my best free NBA player prop picks for December 3.
NBA player props for December 3
Picks made on 12/3/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Board stiff
Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is coming off perhaps the worst rebounding performance of his career, pulling down just a single rebound in 26 minutes of action against Memphis on Wednesday.
That said, the three-time Defensive Player of the Year has been rebounding at an elite level for years and is coming off a season where he led the NBA with 14.7 rebounds per game.
Gobert has found it tough to coexist with fellow seven-footer Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota's frontcourt, but with Towns hitting the IL with a calf injury earlier this week, he has no excuse not to dominate inside.
The Thunder have the fourth-worst rebounding rate in the league and play at the sixth-fastest pace, so there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Gobert in this one. Expect the Stifle Tower to bounce back from a pathetic performance and go Over his rebounds total tonight.
Rudy Gobert Prop: Over 13.5 rebounds (-120)
Simons and Garfunkel
The Blazers have lost seven of their last eight games as they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz. A big reason for Portland's current slide has been the absence of All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, who has missed the last six games and isn't expected to suit up until tomorrow.
With Dame sidelined, Anfernee Simons has stepped up and continues to be one of the most promising young guards in the league. Although Simons can be a bit inconsistent with his shooting (he's been red-hot in three of his last six games and ice-cold in the other three) he has made massive strides with his ability to take care of the ball.
Simons has turned the ball over two or fewer times in 10 of his last 12 games despite logging 37.7 minutes per game and having an extremely high usage rate during that span.
The Jazz are 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating and their opponent turnover rate of 12.3% also ranks 22nd in the league. That number has dipped to just 10.6% in their last three games as they continue to miss Mike Conley who is their best defender at pressuring opposing ballhandlers. Take the Under 2.5 on Simons turnovers.
Anfernee Simons Prop: Under 2.5 turnovers (+100)
Rocket launch
After a poor start to their season, the Golden State Warriors are back to looking like the defending champions having won six of their last eight games.
That said, they are still just 26th in the league in scoring defense (117 ppg allowed) and haven't gotten any better with the Dubs allowing 116.3 ppg in their last seven contests. That span began with a 127-120 shootout win against the Rockets on November 20 and they face off against Houston again today.
The Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league but they play at a fast tempo and are capable of filling up the hoop, which we saw last night when they upset the Suns 122-121.
Rookie Jabari Smith has been making strides on the offensive end of the floor and dropped 17 points last night while scoring a season-high 22 in that previously mentioned contest versus the Warriors.
With the O/U on Smith's points total set at 12.5, a number he has eclipsed in five of his last six games (Smith logged 17 minutes and took just four field goal attempts in the one contest he went Under during that stretch), bet the Over.
Jabari Smith Jr. Prop: Over 12.5 points (-115 at Caesars)
