There's only one game on the NBA betting board this Thursday, with the Detroit Pistons hosting the Dallas Mavericks, but if you dive into the NBA player props market there are still plenty of betting options.
With the Mavs installed as 8-point favorites against the 5-16 Pistons, I'm expecting MVP favorite Luka Doncic to be on cruise control. That's one of my favorite plays with my best free NBA player props for December 1.
NBA player props for December 1
- Hardaway Jr. Under 13.5 points (-115)
- Bogdanovic Over 18.5 points (-106)
- Doncic Under 3.5 TOs (+100)
Picks made on 12/1/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
The hard way
Mavs guard Tim Hardaway Jr. exploded for 22 points on 16 field goal attempts in Tuesday's win against the Warriors. That said, both numbers were massive outliers for the veteran, who hadn't scored more than six points or taken more than nine field goal attempts in each of his previous four contests.
The O/U on Hardaway's points total is set at 13.5 tonight, a number he went over just four times in 14 games in November. He averaged just 9.6 points on 10.3 field goal attempts per game last month and those numbers were inflated by a contest in which Doncic sat out due to rest and Hardaway dropped 28 points on 26 field goal attempts.
The Pistons are terrible defensively but they've been playing at a slower pace since losing Cade Cunningham to a leg injury on November 9 and given Hardaway's track record this season, his points total is simply too high.
Tim Hardaway Jr. Prop: Under 13.5 points (-115)
No misfire
Detroit's Bojan Bogdanovic is coming off a game against the Knicks where he scored just 13 points. However, he did that in just 19 minutes of action in a blowout loss and if he sees more of the floor tonight, he should be able to eclipse his points total of 18.5.
Keep in mind that before that contest against the Knicks, he had scored at least 19 points in eight of the previous nine games with Cunningham sidelined. Bogdanovic averaged 22.4 ppg over that span and although the Mavs are very stingy on the defensive end of the floor, he's the only Pistons scoring threat with Cunningham and rookie Jaden Ivey injured.
Bogdanovic might not be his typical efficient self but he should get plenty of shot attempts, which should lead to him going Over this number.
Bojan Bogdanovic Prop: Over 18.5 pts (-106)
Luka locked in
Doncic averages 3.6 turnovers per game, which is right in line with the O/U of 3.5 on his turnovers today (juiced slightly toward the Over).
That said, many of his turnover issues are due to him trying to carry this offense against strong opponents, with the Mavs playing the fourth toughest strength of schedule in the league according to Power Rankings Guru.
The Pistons struggle on the defensive end of the floor and rank just 25th in opponent turnover rate. Doncic has played just three games this season against teams currently below .500 (two against the Magic and one against the Thunder) and turned the ball over a total of just three times in those contests.
Expect Doncic to face less pressure tonight (and maybe even see fewer minutes if the Mavs run away with this) and take the Under on his turnovers.
Luka Doncic Prop: Under 3.5 turnovers (+115)
