The Minnesota Timberwolves hope an extended break doesn’t mess with their momentum as they try to build a 3-0 series lead over the Denver Nuggets in their Western Conference semifinal. My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions focus on how the Denver frontcourt can fight back in Game 3.
Minnesota stole both matchups in Denver, but last played on May 6, giving Denver ample time to prepare for the next two games inside the Target Center. The NBA odds have the T-Wolves installed as 4.5-point home favorites for tonight's Game 3.
I break down the spread and total for tonight’s tilt and give my best NBA picks for May 10.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Nuggets need everyone to up their efforts if the team is going to dig itself out of a 0-2 hole on the road the next two games. That includes forward Aaron Gordon, who has been quiet on the glass in the opening two games of this conference semifinal series.
Gordon has rounded up totals of just three and four boards in those opening contests, not only taking on a bigger frontcourt in Minnesota but playing limited minutes due to foul trouble in Game 1 and the one-sided result in Game 2.
He averaged 9.8 rebounds over 40-plus minutes per game versus the L.A. Lakers in the opening round but has logged just 33 minutes of floor time in each of the last two games.
Also keeping his rebounding opportunities down is an efficient Timberwolves offense, that has shot better than 50% to open the series — meaning there were fewer defensive rebounds available for guys like Gordon. Denver's defense has to tighten up in a crucial Game 3 showdown.
Today's player projections call for 6-plus rebounds from the Nuggets' athletic forward, with a ceiling closer to eight from some forecasts. These models have Gordon logging between 31 and 35 minutes, but with key contributors like Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson listed as questionable, Gordon’s minutes could jump back up in the 40s.
My number comes out to 6.5 rebounds over 34 minutes, but should he put in that extra work, that projection leans more toward eight boards in Game 3. Measuring that against the NBA player props market, we see some rebounding totals dealing a high of 6.5 O/U, while sharper books have Over 5.5 boards priced as high as -128.
However, you can shop around on Friday morning and find Over 5.5 rebounds as low as -115 at bet365.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 rebounds
Michael Porter Jr. Over 16.5 points
Minnesota Timberwolves 1H moneyline
Gordon’s been limited the past two games, compared to his past playoff work, and projections all call for six or more boards tonight, with his floor time ticking up.
The Nuggets have questions in the backcourt, with three key guards listed as questionable. Michael Porter Jr. projections call for 17-plus already, and he could get more touches if any of those guys do sit out or are limited.
The crowd will be insane in Minnesota to start this game, and I expect the T-Wolves to play with that energy in the first 24 minutes. Denver has been known to start slow and hang around enough to make a second-half push. But I like Minnesota to lead at the break.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves odds
Nuggets vs Timberwolves live odds
Get the latest Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Denver +4 (-104) | Minnesota -4 (-106)
- Moneyline: Denver +159 | Minnesota -177
- Over/Under: Over 204 (-106) | Under 204 (-106)
Nuggets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
• After dominating the first two games in Denver, Minnesota opened as a 4-point home favorite for Game 3. Over the next three days, action on the T-Wolves pushed that line as high as -5 before buyback on the Nuggets has this spread sitting at Minnesota -4.5 on Friday morning.
• The Game 3 total opened at 204 points, reflecting the low-scoring results from the opening two contests. Those results played Under closing totals of 210.5 and 209 points, thanks to Minnesota’s swarming defense.
• Covers Consensus data shows 51% of point spread picks on Minnesota while the Game 3 total is drawing 71% of picks to the Over.
• On the injury front, Denver has a trio of key guards listed as questionable for Game 3: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves trend
The Denver Nuggets have only won on the first-half moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (-20.80 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 5-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Nuggets vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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