2023-24 NBA MVP Odds: Jokic Now a Near-Lock Favorite

The 2023-24 NBA season has seen some wild awards futures movement, and the Most Valuable Player odds continue to shake up, with Nikola Jokic cementing his place as the betting favorite.

Mar 27, 2024 • 11:25 ET • 3 min read
Nikola Jokic NBA MVP odds
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The NBA Most Valuable Player odds were shaken up violently when Joel Embiid went down for the count, leaving just Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic as serious threats to Nikola Jokic's months-long status as the favorite.

NBA odds for this award will be scrutinized again this year, with narratives evolving and debates continuing to rage in the media as we creep toward April's balloting. But for now, Joker continues to stretch his lead further than ever before.

Has Jokic put the NBA MVP odds out of reach for this season? Let's check out the favorites in this popular NBA futures market, as the contenders continue to narrow.

NBA MVP odds

Player Team Position DraftKings FanDuel bet365
Nikola Jokic Nuggets Denver Nuggets C -1,100 -1,100 -1,100
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Celtics Oklahoma City Thunder PG +800 +1,100 +900
Luka Doncic Celtics Dallas Mavericks PG +1,600 +1,800 +1,600
Giannis Antetokounmpo Browns Milwaukee Bucks PF +7,000 +9,000 +8,000
Jayson Tatum Celtics Boston Celtics F +8,000 +10,000 +8,000

Odds as of March 27, 2024.

2024 NBA MVP favorites

Nikola Jokic (-1,100)

Nikola Jokic spent the summer as an MVP odds favorite across major books, despite spending far more time at his stables than anywhere near a basketball court. His play this season has done little to change the perception that he's the best basketball player alive.

While the Nuggets have had a couple of bumps in the road — some injury-related, some complacency-related — to another title, Jokic has generally been his usual stellar self, putting up exactly the kind of comic-book stats (26/12/9 on .650 true shooting) we've come to expect. 

The Nuggets have gone 9-1 in their past 10 to overtake the West's No. 1 seed, and Joker's been stepping it up for the stretch run, including eviscerating the Celtics in a possible finals preview.

Joker has pushed his odds from -350 to -1,100 in the past week, timing his latest offensive outburst well with the onset of awards discussion in the media and podcast spheres. As a result, the MVP odds may have swung permanently in his favor, barring a ridiculous close by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

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2023-24 NBA MVP odds over time

How to read NBA MVP odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. Nikola Jokic had all but locked up the award by the end of the 2022 season, so his odds were listed with a minus (-) sign ahead of the number. 

  • Nikola Jokic -700

The (-) meant that Jokic was an odds-on favorite, and a bettor needed to wager $700 to win $100. Other contenders in the MVP race had plus (+) odds to win.

  • Joel Embiid +650

Here, a bettor stood to profit $650 for a $100 wager on Embiid if he had won the award. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

NBA MVP betting trends

Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP:

    • Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic's 2022 win marked the 13th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.

    • The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only five MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.

    • The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only four MVPs have been younger than 23 years old.

    • Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won the last three MVPs.

NBA MVP voting criteria

The NBA's Most Valuable Player award is voted on by a panel of 100 media members, comprised of both national and local analysts.

Only regular-season games are taken into account (ballots are due shortly after the schedule concludes), and the league has intentionally not included specific criteria to guide voters, leading to a more open interpretation of "value", and the type of debate that now dominates media cycles and podcasts every March-April.

Despite the absence of a rubric, voters have generally trended towards awarding an MVP who leads a dominant team campaign (the "best player on the best team" is a popular contender argument).

Statistics are also a crucial factor to consider. However, with the rise of analytic models, traditional stats like points, rebounds, and assists have begun to carry less raw weight, despite still being part of the equation. Advanced stats like win shares, plus-minus, and VORP (value over replacement player) are leaned upon heavily in most discussions.

A player who has MVP moments throughout the season will resonate with voters too: monster stat lines in big games, outperforming rivals in head-to-head matchups, clutch performances — anything to add extra appeal to their MVP case.

In today's age of load management, how much an MVP plays is of increasing importance. The league's newly-imposed 65-game minimum for award contenders will help curb the debate here, but a player who suits up every night is inherently more valuable.

And, while it's unfortunate to admit, voter fatigue absolutely governs this process when a player wins several awards and the media perform mental gymnastics to vote for another player, whether out of boredom or contrarianism. It happened to Michael Jordan. It happened to LeBron James. It possibly just happened to Nikola Jokic. It will happen again. 

Past NBA MVP awards by position

Position NBA MVP wins
Point guard 11
Shooting guard 8
Small forward 9
Power forward 10
Center 29

Centers owned the NBA MVP award in the early days of the Association, winning the trophy in 21 of the first 25 years it was presented.

NBA MVP history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and the position they played.

Season Player Position Team
2022-23 Joel Embiid Center 76ers Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22 Nikola Jokic Center Browns Denver Nuggets
2020-21 Nikola Jokic Center Browns Denver Nuggets
2019-20 Giannis Antetokounmpo Power forward Browns Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19 Giannis Antetokounmpo Power forward Browns Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18 James Harden Shooting guard Rockets Houston Rockets
2016-17 Russell Westbrook Point guard Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16 Stephen Curry Point guard Browns Golden State Warriors
2014-15 Stephen Curry Point guard Browns Golden State Warriors
2013-14 Kevin Durant Small forward Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder
2012-13 LeBron James Small forward Browns Miami Heat
2011-12 LeBron James Small forward Browns Miami Heat
2010-11 Derrick Rose Point guard Bulls Chicago Bulls
2009-10 LeBron James Small forward Browns Cleveland Cavaliers
2008-09 LeBron James Small forward Browns Cleveland Cavaliers
2007-08 Kobe Bryant Shooting guard Browns Los Angeles Lakers
2006-07 Dirk Nowitzki Power forward Mavericks Dallas Mavericks
2005-06 Steve Nash Point guard Suns Phoenix Suns
2004-05 Steve Nash Point guard Suns Phoenix Suns
2003-04 Kevin Garnett Power forward Timberwolves Minnesota Timberwolves

Best NBA MVP betting sites

Scouting basketball betting websites should be a breeze, but new bettors often feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of options available. Here are the must-have basketball betting site features you should target before placing your wagers.

Best odds: Not all sportsbooks are created equally, especially when it comes to odds. Finding the best price for your basketball bets is key to a successful betting strategy. 

Live betting: Watching betting lines move in real-time and comparing statistics allows you to jump into the action at just the right moment.

Fast payouts: Accessing your hard-earned funds shouldn't feel like breaking a full-court press. It's important to choose a sportsbook that offers fast and reliable money withdrawals post game.

Safe money transactions: The days of placing bets with bookies in shadowy back rooms are long over. Major online sportsbooks boast state-of-the-art security measures like SSL data encryption, and each holds a legal operating license from registered authorities.

Best NBA MVP betting promos

Betting boosts are special promotions offered by legal sports betting sites that increase the odds for a specific game, event, or prop, designed to give you better value on your bets or encourage you to sign up for a new sportsbook with unique rewards and offerings.

They can be a great way for bettors to get better value for their wagers, as the odds are temporarily increased, thereby increasing a potential payout. The promotions are usually limited to a specific period and are subject to terms and conditions, so it's always important to read the fine print for more details.

Types of odds boosts

There are a number of different types of betting boosts available, with some targeting specific games, some aimed at specific leagues, and some just enticing users to try a new sportsbook. Here are the most common types of betting boosts:

  • Odds boost: When a sportsbook enhances the value of a specifically chosen player prop or a curated parlay/SGP, offering better odds than if you normally bet or created the wager yourself.

  • Profit boosts: When you are given a token that increases the value of any bet you want (such as a 25% boost on one Super Bowl bet). Sometimes these tokens are for all bets, while sometimes they have specific criteria (such parlays/SGPs only or bets above a certain price).

  • Sign-up offers: Operators offer benefits such as free bonus bets after your first wager, bonus bets offered as insurance if your first bet loses, an initial account deposit match, or even giving you discounts on other services for signing up with a sportsbook.

Take advantage of our best NBA betting promos — from our best NBA betting sites — to see if any other promotions appear that you can place a wager on!

NBA MVP odds FAQ

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