NBA Draft Odds: Smith Stretches Lead With Draft Almost Here

The countdown is on. With the NBA Finals concluded, the 2022 NBA Draft is having its moment, with the rookies-to-be taking center stage tonight.

NBA Draft betting began garnering more attention after the Draft Lottery and combine week, and is being fueled by some uncertainty down the stretch that has massively shifted the odds in the past few days. 

We've got an updated look at the odds to go first overall in the 2022 NBA Draft, with a breakdown of the top NBA draft pick odds.

You can also check out our most recent 2022 NBA mock draft for the latest analysis!

(Editor's Note: As of Thursday morning, the "to be picked first overall" market has been off the board at several major sportsbooks that previously offered it. Per a tweet from ESPN Senior NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski, the Draft's Top 3 looks to be a done deal.)

As team boards finalize today, the 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources: Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero to Houston.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022

2022 NBA Draft: Odds to go first overall

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 22, 2022.

Favorites to be picked first overall in the 2022 NBA Draft

When it comes to most things NBA, but particularly the Draft, a WojBomb is as close to gospel as exists before Adam Silver reads a team's pick. With the Top 3 more or less set, here's a look back at yesterday's odds before they became OTB on Draft Day: 

Jabari Smith Jr. (-250)

Despite Auburn's disappointing oustings from the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, Jabari Smith Jr. has tantalized scouts with his two-way potential as a rangy forward with great length, mobility, and skill. Smith exceeded his 16.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game averages down the stretch, dropping 19.5 and 9.1 over Auburn's last nine.

With an NBA pedigree (his father was a 10-year veteran), an already-polished game, and a large palette of upside, Smith might bring the fewest questions of the top prospects.

While Smith is still the odds-on favorite to go No. 1, his odds have shortened in the past two weeks (once as big as a -455 favorite), with Orlando's silence about their intentions leading to speculation. But, despite Banchero charging up the board, he's seen his odds improve from -155 yesterday.

Paolo Banchero (+255)

Banchero had the pressure of delivering for Duke in legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski's final season but seemed up to the challenge, dropping 17 points and 7.7 rebounds on 48% shooting for a Blue Devils team that made it all the way to the Final Four.

An athletic, physical forward with an NBA-ready body and offensive game, Banchero can be a three-level scoring threat for whichever team lucks into his services next season.

Banchero has skyrocketed up the odds board this week, a rise sparked not only by the Magic's silence and the resulting uncertainty but concerns about Chet Holmgren's health and desire to play in Orlando. 

Chet Holmgren (+350)

Holmgren's a lanky do-it-all 7-footer, who, while rail-thin by NBA standards, has a unique skill set on both sides of the ball. He can shoot and score off the dribble, runs the floor with ease, and possesses great court vision for a player of his size. He's also very mobile on defense and has unreal shot-blocking instincts.

Holmgren poured in 14.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game this season, with 3.4 blocks as a freshman. With some NBA conditioning, he could become a game-changer at the next level.

Basketball News draft analyst Matt Babcock reported that Holmgren has not supplied teams with his medical info, suggesting his agents may be trying to steer him to a particular destination. 

Jaden Ivey (+9,000)

Purdue sophomore Ivey is a get-buckets two-guard with explosive athleticism, a crafty handle, and a knack for death-defying takes to the hoop. Tenacious on defense, with long arms and quick reflexes, he projects as a strong NBA defender with the build to guard multiple wing positions. 

Purdue, like so many before it, fell victim to the Saint Peter's Peacocks in March Madness, but the upset should have no ill effect on the draft stock of a highly-intriguing prospect. 

Shaedon Sharpe (+10,000)

Sharpe has climbed many draft boards since the tournament after the reclassified star sat this season for early-ousted Kentucky. 

A rangy swingman with deadly precision from distance and the freakish length and athleticism to become a disruptive force in passing lanes and perimeter lockdowns, Sharpe has the makings of a tantalizing two-way prospect despite his raw and relatively unknown status.

Sharpe is also a solid ball-handler and finisher who rose from relative obscurity in high school. He may be somewhat of a late bloomer skill-wise and could continue to fill out his set as he trains at the next level.

NBA Draft odds over time

The chart below displays the implied probability of each of the Top-3 prospects going No. 1 overall since April 20.  

Understanding NBA Draft betting

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Zion Williamson opened as the heavy favorite to go first overall in the 2019 NBA Draft, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number. 

• Zion Williamson -2,000

This meant that a bettor needed to wager $2000 to win $100 by betting on Zion. Everyone else in that field had plus (+) odds to win.

• RJ Barrett +550

Williamson's teammate at Duke, RJ Barrett had the second-best odds at +550. A bettor would stand to profit $550 for every $100 wagered on Barrett. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

First overall NBA Draft picks since 2000

NBA Draft Odds FAQ

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