The Golden State Warriors struck first with a convincing 112-87 win over the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Stephen Curry had game-highs of 21 points and 12 rebounds, and Jordan Poole chipped in another 20 points from the bench. Luka Doncic struggled with just 20 points on 6-18 shooting with seven turnovers.
Despite Game 1's definitive scoreline and what talking heads may suggest, there is still plenty of basketball to be played and more importantly, there are plenty of angles to attack Game 2 with.
Here are some prop picks we like for the Game 2 matchup between the Mavericks and Warriors on Friday.
Mavericks vs Warriors Game 2 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Mavericks vs Warriors Game 2 props
Oddsmakers in the Looney bin
Following a series-clinching 22-rebound performance against the Grizzlies, Kevon Looney's rebound Over/Under was set at a lofty 7.5. And just like we did with Game 1, we're going to suggest that you take the Under on that number.
Looney managed just five boards in 28 minutes in Game 1, despite grabbing three of those early in the first quarter. As we mentioned prior to Game 1, Looney's overinflated rebound props aren't reflective of his performances. He has managed to grab eight or more rebounds just twice now in 12 playoff games and went under that number in 51 of his 82 regular-season games (62.2%).
Again, the performances have a clear divide when Draymond Green does and does not play. In regular-season games without Draymond, Looney averaged 8.7 rebounds per game and went under the 7.5 number 50% of the time. With Draymond, Looney averaged 6.2 rebounds per game and went under the number 71.7% of the time.
The cherry on top? The Under in Game 1 was set at -140 odds while Game 2's has an even more enticing -110, despite Looney's performance.
PICK: Kevon Looney Under 7.5 rebounds (-110)
Luka strikes back
Although he's just 23 years old and in just his fourth season, Luka has shown a very clear tendency in the playoffs to bounce back in a big way following a poor performance in a loss. Admittedly the sample is small, but the results speak for themselves.
In Game 3 of the first round of the 2020 playoffs, Luka managed just 13 points on 4-14 (28.6%) shooting. In Game 4, he put up 43 points while going 18-31 (58.1%) from the floor en route to a crucial overtime win to tie up the series.
Last year in Game 4, Doncic put up 19 points on 9-24 shooting (37.5%) and allowed the Clippers to tie up the series after being down 0-2. In a pivotal Game 5, Luka posted 42 points while going 17-37 (45.9%) on the road to take the series lead.
On Wednesday night Luka managed just 20 points on 6-18 (33.3%) shooting in an ugly beatdown, which sets the table for a big bounce back on Friday night.
PICK: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points (-120)
Pass on Draymond's passing
The Warriors' answer to combating the Mavericks' aggressive switches and closeouts was to continuously and consciously pass the ball. No single player served as the engine of the offense and six different Warriors players had three or four assists, with none higher.
This approach hinders Draymond Green's assist potential, who managed just three assists on Wednesday after averaging 7.0 in the regular season and 6.6 across his first 11 playoff games.
That dip being a result of game plan and approach is supported by NBA.com's potential assists metric, which aims to measure the value of a player's passing more accurately. In the first round, Green averaged 14.6 potential assists and in the second round, he averaged 13.3. In Game 1, Draymond managed just nine potential assists.
Furthermore, the Mavericks were seemingly OK giving Draymond more space and daring him to shoot (his six FG attempts in Game 1 were tied for his third-highest mark in these playoffs), which of course limits his assist potential.
PICK: Draymond Green Under 6.5 assists (-125)
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