LeBron James NBA Scoring Record Odds

LeBron James scoring record odds are popping up pre-season as the King is within striking distance of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's 33-year-old record. Find out if, when, and how it could happen as LeBron gets set to smash one of the sport's greatest achievements.

Last Updated: Sep 6, 2022 11:32 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
LeBron James NBA scoring record odds
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

LeBron James is on the precipice of arguably the NBA's single most hallowed individual accomplishment, and sportsbooks are coming along for the ride. 

The only real challenger to the GOAT throne sits 1,325 points back of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career regular-season scoring mark, and LeBron James scoring record odds are popping up at major outlets. 

With King James set to add another tally to his pantheon resume, let's take a look at how bettors can get in on the chase with LeBron's odds to break the NBA career scoring record. 

LeBron James scoring record odds

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, as of September 6, 2022.

Will LeBron James break the scoring record in 2022-23?

Yes No
-1,000 +650

It seems fairly safe to assume that LeBron will topple Abdul-Jabbar's record at some point this season.

The 1,325 points he needs to do so is a mark that's he's cleared in 18 of his 19 NBA seasons, with the lone exception being the 2020-21 campaign where he suffered numerous injuries and only played 45 games. 

Serious or multiple ailments are really the only thing standing between LeBron and the record this season, but while the sportsbooks are heavily favoring the "Yes" prop, James has played in 56, 45, 67, and 55 games per season, respectively, since joining L.A.

The longevity of his excellence is unparalleled, but with so much mileage, there's no question LeBron's no longer the iron man he once was.

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When will LeBron James break the scoring record?

After 1/31/23 (at NYK) Before 1/31/23 (at NYK)
-140 +110

Books are projecting that LeBron will set the new all-time scoring mark sometime shortly after the season's midway point, with late January-early February as the likeliest target. 

As if David Stern himself had scripted it, a road date at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks is the current favorite, shaded towards the "After", likely given LeBron's less-than-stellar health record the past few seasons.

This would be the Los Angeles Lakers' 52nd game of the season, meaning, with perfect health, LeBron would have to average 25.4 points per game to hit the "Before" at +110. While he averaged 30.3 ppg last season, James scored 25.0 and 25.3 ppg the previous two seasons.

How will LeBron James break the scoring record?

Scoring method Odds
2-point field goal -140
3-point field goal +210
Free throw +475

This market lets bettors get very specific — trying to figure out exactly how LeBron will break the record. 

A 2-point field goal sits as the odds-on favorite, with good reason. James still takes a large majority of his shots inside the arc, and there's the added intangible factor of a meticulously manicured showman like LeBron secretly wanting to break the record with an emphatic dunk.

But, with that said, it's worth noting that King James has evolved with the NBA's 3-point-happy curve, and the proportion of shots he takes from long range has increased each of the past six seasons, to a career-high 36.7% last year.

Free throws are, understandably, a big dog here. Not only has LeBron's free-throw rate sank noticeably the past three seasons, he's a notoriously mediocre foul shooter whose .756 mark last season was his best showing in a decade.

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