Heat vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Tatum Heats Up from Long Range

Jayson Tatum's been heating up from long range, and facing the short-handed Heat tonight, he could see a lot more zone coverage. Find out why that's great news for the Celtics as our NBA picks target their MVP candidate.

Dec 2, 2022 • 08:13 ET • 4 min read
Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Celtics just keep rolling. They’re 18-4, top of the NBA standings, and now looking to pick up back-to-back wins against their long-standing Eastern Conference rivals, the Miami Heat on Friday, December 2.

If the playoffs started today, the Heat would be out of the Play-In Tournament at 10-11, as they desperately try to stay above water while they continue to miss key players every night.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Celtics believe that Jayson Tatum should be in for another big performance from distance against a Miami team playing zone by necessity. 

Heat vs Celtics best odds

Heat vs Celtics picks and predictions

If you’re making a traditional argument for the MVP, one need look no further than Jayson Tatum. He’s the unquestioned best player on the league’s best team, spearheading a historic offense, and he’s taken yet another leap to cement himself firmly in the conversation as a Top-5 player overall. His scoring has notched up almost five points per game to 31.6 ppg, outdone only by his corresponding leap to a career-high 63.5% true shooting.

If there’s been any minor quibble to be had with Tatum, it’s that his 3-point shooting has been lagging behind his growth in so many other areas. While his 2-point shooting has soared to a hair under 59%, his perimeter shot has hovered at around or just below 35%. 

That is until Wednesday’s game against the Heat, where he dropped 49 points including 8-12 from downtown. I’m not predicting a repeat performance to that degree, but I do believe Miami’s depleted roster and resultant scheming by necessity should allow him to clear this Over on Friday.

The Heat are currently approaching “Napoleon marches on Moscow during Russian winter” levels of attrition at the moment, losing bodies left and right to all manner of ailment big and small.  Most importantly, Jimmy Butler has missed six straight games with a knee injury and remains questionable for tonight’s game. Overall, Miami has 10 players on the injury report for Friday. Earlier this season they had to dress Gabe Vincent despite his injury preventing him from playing, just so they could avoid an automatic forfeit. That’s how banged-up this Miami team is right now.

All those missing bodies make for a lot of ad-hoc lineups. It forces them into a lot of uncomfortable matchups as a result, and there’s no bigger nightmare for this version of Miami than the wing-heavy attack of the Boston Celtics.

The Heat are down so many bodies that they can’t play man-to-man against the Celtics, nor comfortably switch most ball screens as they would prefer, because they just don’t have the size. They only have one credible wing defender definitively available in Caleb Martin, and that puts them in a bad spot to defend against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s driving game. 

The Heat opted for a zone defense in their game against Boston on Wednesday, banking against Tatum’s subpar start to the season from outside. Obviously, they lost that bet, but it’s hard to see them having many better options down so many bodies. Until Butler or Victor Oladipo is back in the mix, mixing in some zone is the best of a series of bad options for Erik Spoelstra to turn to.

Tatum will act as Boston’s ultimate zone-buster again on Friday. While he got off to a slow start from 3 this year, he’s rounding into form recently, shooting north of 40% over his last five games on 10 attempts per game.

My best bet: Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 3-pointers made (-108)

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Heat vs Celtics spread analysis

While the Celtics beat the Heat by 13 points just two days ago, the final score is not reflective of what was a highly competitive game overall. It’s also really hard to beat a team twice in a row, and these new two-game miniseries the NBA schedule makers implemented a few years ago are exceedingly difficult to sweep. All that gives me pause to lay Boston -8.5.

But then, there’s everything else. Even as expectations mount game after game and cover after cover, the Celtics are just blowing the doors off everyone right now. They’re 14-8 against the spread on the season, and despite their odds getting longer each passing day, they’re also 5-0 ATS in their last five.

Miami is another story. It’s managed to rattle off three wins in a row before the Wednesday defeat by Boston, and the Heat have rallied behind strong play by Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry in particular. But they’re also 7-14 ATS on the year and trending in the wrong direction. They’re covering against a lot of bad teams but faltering against the good ones, like Boston. 

They’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage over .600. Even more discouraging? They’re 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against winning teams.

Still, it’s hard to sweep a back-to-back set like this and there’s real uncertainty about who might be available Friday. The numbers might say Boston should clear this easily, but I hesitate to bet it myself.

Heat vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

There aren't enough superlatives for how good the Celtics’ offense has been this season. Per Cleaning the Glass, they have a 123 offensive rating, more than five points higher than the second-place Denver Nuggets. The gap between first and second is comparable to the gap between second and 14th. 

If they continue at this pace for an entire season, they will be the best offense of all time, full stop. In terms of points per shot attempt, they have six rotation players in the 90th percentile or higher for their position in terms of scoring efficiency. They have 63.4% true shooting as a team, the league average for this season is 57.4%. Each number more absurd than the last, and each one a reason why the Over has gone 13-8-1 for the Celtics this season.

Another reason is that their defense has been lackluster. They’ve been blowing teams out so badly that they’ve let their defense slip below average for the first time in years. They can get by on scoring, so they largely do. The really scary proposition is what this team looks like when Robert Williams III returns to tighten them up on that side of the ball. 

For now though, even this limited Heat team was able to have success in their last game, dropping 121 points with fairly limited offensive firepower. At 224.5 I’d lean toward the Over cashing again Friday.

Heat vs Celtics betting trend to know

Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.

Heat vs Celtics game info

Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date: Friday, December 2, 2022
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-Boston, Bally Sports Sun

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