An eight-game winning streak was somehow not enough to get the Philadelphia 76ers out of the Play-In Tournament. They were able to make up the two-game deficit in the standings, but they lost all applicable tiebreakers, sticking them at No. 7 in the Eastern Conference.
That surge across the final two weeks of the season did jump Philadelphia over the Miami Heat, changing the host in tonight's Play-In game. The key to the 76ers’ surge was Joel Embiid’s return for five of those eight wins, and Embiid will key Philadelphia’s hopes in this meeting.
But putting trust in Embiid against Miami comes with too much of a risk for my NBA picks as I explain in my Heat vs. 76ers predictions for Wednesday, April 17.
Heat vs 76ers predictions
My best bet
Joel Embiid Under 30.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Since he became an MVP contender in 2020-21, Joel Embiid has faced Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo five times. Every time, Adebayo has held Embiid well below his season-long scoring averages.
The sample size may scare off some folks from doubting Embiid in this Play-In game, but the disparity between his production everywhere else and his production against Adebayo is so stark, it overwhelms the smaller sample size concern.
In 20-21, Embiid averaged 28.9 points against all other defenders. He played against Adebayo once and scored six points. In 21-22, Embiid averaged 30.7 points when not facing Adebayo. Going against the Heat's defensive linchpin, Embiid scored just 22.
Last year, Embiid scored 33.4 points per game against anyone else. Against Adebayo, he scored 48 points in two games, topping out at 27. And Embiid faced Adebayo only once this season, scoring 29 points earlier this month compared to 34.8 points per game in his other 38 games.
This props market has accounted for that constant headache, but it has not adjusted for it enough. Even if removing Embiid’s 3-for-9 showing for six points late in the delayed 2021 season, Adebayo has held him 8.3 points below his average otherwise in their last four meetings.
The stakes of this Play-In game could slow it down, further lessening Embiid’s chances at points. Until this prop market falls toward 28 points, there is value in fading the 76ers’ cornerstone.
Heat vs 76ers same-game parlay (SGP)
Joel Embiid Under 30.5 points
Joel Embiid Under 11.5 rebounds
Under 208
Embiid has not only struggled to score against Adebayo, he's also struggled to grab his usual rebounds. Twice in their last five meetings, Embiid exceeded his season average in boards when facing Adebayo — but one of those two was by 1.8 rebounds. Let’s play it fair and exclude both Embiid’s best rebounding and worst rebounding game against Adebayo. In the other three, Embiid has fallen 3.2 rebounds short of his otherwise averages.
Against the rest of the NBA, Embiid averaged 11.2 rebounds this season. He may struggle to reach double digits in this Play-In game.
Taking the Under here is a testament to Miami’s defensive focus when things start to matter. At some point, the Heat will no longer keep getting away with it, but we have all seen their last few postseasons. We all know what Miami wants to do.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Heat vs 76ers odds
Heat vs 76ers live odds
Heat vs 76ers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +4.5 (-105) | Philadelphia -4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Miami +163 | Philadelphia -183
- Over/Under: Over 207.5 (-110) | Under 207.5 (-110)
Heat vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The vast majority of both money and bets have backed Philadelphia, about three quarters of each at BetMGM, yet the spread has remained steady with the 76ers favored by 4.5 — some books ticking to -5 on Tuesday afternoon.
- The total has seen similar heavy trading on the Over, yet the sportsbooks opened it at 207.5 and did not climb higher than 208 as of Tuesday afternoon
- Philadelphia covered the spread in 10 straight games to end the regular season
Heat vs 76ers trend
Miami went 10-3-1 against the spread since the All-Star Break. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. 76ers.
Heat vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ESPN2 |
Heat vs 76ers latest injuries
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