Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks will take on DeMar DeRozan and the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament tonight and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.
It feels only right that in a do-or-die game for the Atlanta Hawks' season, we return to one of my favorite NBA assists props: Dejounte Murray on the Over. However, in all seriousness, I'm not betting on this solely because it's one of my favorite bets; there's a massive probability gap, and let me explain why.
Let's take a closer look at Murray's assists prop as I make my free NBA picks and Hawks vs. Bulls predictions on Wednesday, April 17th.
Hawks vs Bulls predictions
My best bet
Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)
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My analysis
Trae Young was out for over a month, and Dejounte Murray was running the show for the Hawks' offense. We witnessed Murray drop triple-doubles, with his assists prop trading around 8.5 and 9.5. Right at the end of the season, with three games left, Young returned to the lineup, and the sportsbooks had to make an adjustment on Murray's assists prop. If you're afraid to attack Murray's assists prop because Young is back, this total is 3 or 4 assists lower than what we typically saw for when Young was out, so an adjustment has been made.
The difference between now and earlier in the season when Murray and Young were playing alongside each other is that the Hawks got used to Murray running the offense, and they are down several rotation pieces. Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Saddiq Bey are all out for the Hawks, and Quinn Snyder doesn't have many options off the bench.
This is a do-or-die game for the Hawks franchise, this current roster, the coaching staff, pretty much everyone. What I'm trying to say is that we have a healthy edge on the Over 5.5 assists for Murray at +110 with a projection of 37 minutes, but I think it's very likely he pushes 40+ minutes considering the scenario.
Specifically regarding the matchup with the Bulls, this is where I think Young actually helps Murray by being in the lineup at the adjusted number, because Young is going to draw Alex Caruso. If Caruso is on Young, the Hawks will want to attack Nikola Vucevic in the pick-and-roll, and they should do so with Murray because he won't have to contend with Caruso at the point of attack.
When these two teams met on April 1st, Murray was consistently trying to go at Vucevic in the pick-and-roll, but he had to deal with Caruso's on-ball pressure to do so. That led to the Hawks using Bogdan Bogdanovic more as a secondary ball handler, and Bogdanovic led the Hawks in potential assists with 10 and in assists with six. Murray will be Bogdanovic on Wednesday, and he will be much more effective in this role and the beneficiary of Young being guarded by Caruso.
Murray is projected to have 6.7 assists on Wednesday against the Bulls, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -187, but it's available at DraftKings at +110.
Hawks vs Bulls same-game parlay (SGP)
Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 assists
De'Andre Hunter Over 2.5 threes made
Clint Capela Over 12.5 points
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Murray Over 5.5 assists is my best bet, but in order for him to drop some dimes, we're going to need someone to knock down shots. So, I'm pairing De'Andre Hunter Over 2.5 threes made with the Murray assists prop. Hunter's minutes were more of a wild card when Johnson was healthy, but with Johnson out and several other players, Hunter's minutes are more secure.
Whether it's assists from Murray or Young, Clint Capela will be very active as a lob threat on Wednesday because the Hawks will be looking to go right at Vucevic in the pick-and-roll, and Capela will be the beneficiary of this. At 12.5, this isn't my favorite number for a Capela points prop, but it definitely makes sense to pair this prop with our Murray assists prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Hawks vs Bulls odds
Hawks vs Bulls live odds
Hawks vs Bulls opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +3 | Chicago -3
- Moneyline: Atlanta +129 | Chicago -143
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5
Hawks vs Bulls spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bulls opened as a 3-point favorite at FanDuel, and that's where that number's trading as of late Wednesday morning.
- We've seen the spread move to Bulls -2.5 or Bulls -3.5, but it always finds its way back to the opener.
- The total opened at 219.5 at FanDuel and has climbed three points to 222.5.
- We are still awaiting injury news for the Chicago Bulls, as Ayo Dosunmu and Andre Drummond are both questionable.
Hawks vs Bulls trend
The Chicago Bulls have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 45 games (+14.65 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Bulls.
Hawks vs Bulls game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Hawks vs Bulls latest injuries
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