Bucks vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Doncic & Co. Make a Statement Against Defending Champs

In what's the biggest game on Friday night's slate, two of the top leading scorers will collide in a marquee battle between teams that are both winners of their last three. Read more in our Bucks vs. Mavericks betting picks.

Dec 9, 2022 • 12:56 ET • 4 min read
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Friday night offers basketball fans a possible NBA Finals preview when the 18-6 Milwaukee Bucks meet the 13-11 Dallas Mavericks. Both clubs are riding three-game winning streaks, and the Mavs will look to avenge an earlier season away loss to the Bucks. 

Who will come out victorious? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Mavericks on December 9.

Bucks vs Mavericks best odds

Bucks vs Mavericks picks and predictions

The Mavericks are starting to put things together. They’ve won four of their last five and seem to have shaken their road woes with a pair of away wins over New York and Denver. The Mavs beat Phoenix by 19 at home and are 10-3 SU at home this season.

Luka Doncic leads the league in scoring and has put up 30 or more in four of his last five. Christian Wood was in a reserve role when these teams last met and lends Doncic some help with the scoring and on the glass. Tim Hardaway Jr. has also been on fire, averaging 24 points and shooting over 40% from downtown over his previous five games.

The Bucks have a firm hold on second place in the East and have won four of their last five. Giannis Antetokoumnpo is averaging a double-double and ranks second in league scoring with 32.1 points per game. He’s the main man for Milwaukee, but the Bucks got a boost when Khris Middleton returned this week from a season-ending injury. Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis have also had solid campaigns for a Bucks team ranked 14th in scoring but third in points allowed.

Dallas has led the league in scoring over its past five games and are 4-1 against the spread over that same period. The Mavs have been red hot, and much of that has to do with Hardaway contributing to a team knocking down 41% of its triples during this run.

Dallas won’t shoot the Bucks out of the gym (Milwaukee has allowed 8.4 made triples per night over their past five), but Dallas has impressive victories this week over two of the best teams in the West and is playing with incredible confidence.

Not having Middleton’s scoring in the Bucks' lineup has hurt the offense, and the star shooting guard is still looking to find his legs after missing most of this season. Milwaukee has Giannis and a distinct edge on the glass, but it lacks that third scorer that it'll need to win this game against the league's fourth-best defense.

Take Dallas to cover on Friday.

My best bet: Mavericks +1 (-110 at Caesars)

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Bucks vs Mavericks spread analysis

While the Bucks are winners of their last three, two of those victories came against teams that probably won’t make the playoffs. Milwaukee has averaged 115 points over its last five games and allowed 109 per contest. 

Dallas has defeated Golden State, New York, Phoenix, and Denver over its past five, shooting 48% from the field while averaging 121 points per game. The Mavs have slipped a bit defensively, allowing six points more than their season average of 108.

The Bucks are 6-3 SU as the away side, facing a Mavericks team with a 10-3 home record.

Bucks vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

We have a game featuring two of the best defenses in the league, and I’m leaning Under 223 points.

The offenses play at a league-average pace, but Milwaukee has played faster since Middleton’s return. Milwaukee will own the glass on both ends of the floor, but Dallas is ninth in second-chance points allowed (12.9), and Milwaukee likely won’t get the 15-second-chance points they usually enjoy.

For the season, Milwaukee is 12-12 to the Over, and the Over is 2-7 when the Bucks are the away team. The Over is 2-3 over their last five, primarily due to their second-best league defensive rating. 

Dallas is 15-9 to the Over, and the Over is 8-5 at American Airlines Center. The Over is 4-1 over its past five, with the league's 11th-best defensive rating. 

Bucks vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings in Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Mavericks.

Bucks vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Friday, December 9, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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