The Philadelphia 76ers ripped off eight straight wins and then triumphed in the Play-In Tournament in order to book this first-round matchup against the New York Knicks.
While some felt the Knicks would be better served manipulating the standings to avoid the Sixers, they instead pushed hard for the No.2 seed, embracing the possibility of facing down Philly head-on.
My NBA picks and 76ers vs. Knicks predictions examine the stylistic clashes, and what we can expect from Embiid against a locked-in New York squad in Game 1.
76ers vs Knicks predictions
My best bet
Knicks -2.5 (-118 at 888sport)
My analysis
This is one of the most enticing matchups of the opening round, and the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks both enter Game 1 playing at a very high level.
Unfortunately, health is a massive factor in this game. Julius Randle is lost for the season, and Joel Embiid comes in with significant caveats.
The Embiid from the first third of the season was the best player in the NBA, full stop. That version of Embiid would be a huge problem for the Knicks, even at full strength.
But the Embiid we’ve seen most recently is not that guy. After making an encouraging five-game return at the end of the regular season, he tweaked his knee against the Orlando Magic on April 12. He was held out of the 76ers season finale and looked like a shell of himself for most of the play-in game against the Miami Heat.
He was laboring, moving slowly, and lacked any real burst on offense.
That version of Embiid can’t cover ground fast enough to make playing drop against Jalen Brunson work. He also can’t win his own matchup by enough to force New York to send doubles every play.
His conditioning and ability to play is also an open question. He’s officially questionable for Saturday’s game, and while I would expect he’ll play, I am not 100% confident. Even if he does, it’s fair to wonder how he’ll hold up against New York’s physicality.
On paper, the Knicks are a good matchup for Embiid because they’re a low pace team.
But the Knicks don’t want to play slow on offense. They have a good halfcourt offense, but against the best defenses like the Minnesota Timberwolves, Boston Celtics, and the 76ers, they have made a huge effort to push in transition hard off make or miss.
In the game between the Knicks and 76ers on January 5 (the only matchup this season to feature all of Brunson, Embiid, OG Anunoby, and Tyrese Maxey), the Knicks notched a whopping 33 fast break points on route to a 128-92 blowout.
Isaiah Hartenstein held up well in isolation against Embiid that game. They’ll try to play the matchup straight up as much as possible, but if Embiid catches the ball below the foul line or backs down to the elbow, the Knicks will send traps from everywhere.
A limited Embiid will also be in trouble trying to hustle back to defend the rim against the Knicks' transition attack. Josh Hart is one of the best in the league at attacking and finishing on the break.
Anunoby will get turns on Embiid as well, as will Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa. Some teams don’t have any good options for Embiid. The Knicks are the rare team with a few.
The Knicks should win the possession game. They don’t foul, they rarely turn it over, and they dominate the rebounding battle. Embiid will still draw some fouls, but Philly’s margin of error will be lower than usual.
The Knicks will miss Randle’s creation at some point in the playoffs, but the Knicks starting lineup featuring Brunson, OG, Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, and Hartenstein has been blitzing opponents. Per Cleaning the Glass that group is +15.1 points per 100 possessions, with an offensive rating (120.2) in the 84th percentile and a defensive rating (105) in the 98th percentile.
Without a fully actualized Embiid, I expect the Knicks to come away with a comfortable Game 1 victory.
76ers vs Knicks same-game parlay (SGP)
Knicks -3
Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 points
Josh Hart 5+ assists
Brunson is averaging 37.8 points over his last 10 games on north of 60% true shooting. He’s had 35 or more in five of his last six games entering the playoffs, and he’ll be fresh off a five-day rest.
Brunson is going to test Embiid’s mobility. He’ll attack him pulling up from deep as well as in the midrange. If he’s not moving well, Jalen will target him mercilessly.
Oddsmakers have finally gotten wise to Hart’s rebounding prowess, however he should be heavily featured on Saturday as a playmaker.
The 76ers are going to trap Brunson a lot, and to counteract it the Knicks will do a lot of guard-to-guard screening. Hart is going to play a Draymond Green-like role, attacking downhill and making passes to corner shooters.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
76ers vs Knicks odds
76ers vs Knicks live odds
76ers vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +2.5 (-110) | New York -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +120 | New York -140
- Over/Under: Over 207.5 (-110) | Under 207.5 (-110)
76ers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Knicks opened as -2.5 point favorites over Philadelphia, which has risen as high as -3.5 at some sportsbooks of Saturday afternoon.
- New York is 17-13 ATS as home favorites this season.
- Saturday’s total opened at 207.5 with action on the Over tipping that to 209.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Under is 26-15 in Knicks home games.
76ers vs Knicks trend
New York is 17-13 ATS as home favorites this season. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Knicks.
76ers vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-20-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
76ers vs Knicks latest injuries
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