In a NASCAR season that's seen a departure from the ordinary so far, last weekend's historic DQ result definitely takes the cake.
What's in store for this weekend at Indianapolis Motor Speedway? Well, it's a road course, so Cup Series points leader and current human flamethrower Chase Elliott predictably finds himself atop Verizon 200 at The Brickyard odds.
Will Elliott's dominant run continue? Let's break down the field and find the best trends and angles for NASCAR betting this weekend with our Verizon 200 at The Brickyard picks and predictions.
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard best bets
Picks made on 7/27/22 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard favorites
Chase Elliott (+400)
He had a Top-5 car last year but is winless at Indy, even on the oval. Can he join his dad as the first father-son combo to win at Indy in the NASCAR ranks? Elliott was fourth, eighth and second, respectively, on the three road courses run this season, and enters having scored five straight Top-2 finishes including three wins.
Kyle Larson (+650)
He led the most laps and finished third last year. While he was 29th and 15th at both COTA and Sonoma, he was also fourth in Road America and enters this weekend having scored three Top-5 finishes over the last five weeks.
Trackhouse Racing
They’re 2-for-3 in road course wins this year with Ross Chastain winning in COTA and Daniel Suarez in Sonoma. Chastain has finished first, seventh and fourth, respectively, on road courses in 2022 and Suarez going 24th, first and fifth himself. The only reason he was 24th in COTA was that he was spun on the restart for the second stage — he led every lap of the opening stage.
Kaulig Racing won this race last year, so why not Trackhouse in 2022? Chastain has seven Top-8 finishes in his last nine starts on the season. Suarez has five Top 10s in his last six, including three in the Top 5.
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Verizon 200 at The Brickyard longshot picks
Ryan Blaney (+1,600)
He was fourth in COTA, sixth in Sonoma, and 11th in Road America, making me start to believe in him on road courses again. He also had a Top 5 here last year, at that.
Austin Cindric (+1,200)
He’s a road racer by nature and was eighth, fifth, and seventh, respectively, in the three road course races run this season. He also won the Xfinity Series race on this very track here a year ago.
AJ Allmendinger (+2,000)
He’s always a threat on road courses and even won Indy last year. This year, he was in the Top 2 on the final lap in COTA before being crashed for the win and finishing 33rd. He was also in the Top 10 late in Sonoma before being spun and finishing 19th, and did get a ninth-place run in Road America.
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard fades
Joe Gibbs Racing
The road courses haven’t been kind to JGR in 2022. They went 3-7-18-28 in COTA, 26-27-30-31 in Sonoma, and 13-17-18-29 in Road America. Their satellite team in 23XI Racing was also 32-38, 18-36, and 27-35 in the same three races.
Stewart-Haas Racing
They’ve looked better than JGR, but not by much. They went 11-19-23-20 in COTA, 4-13-14-21 in Sonoma, and 10-14-14-28 in Road America.
Joey Logano (+4,000)
His three road course finishes in 2022 are 31st, 17th, and 27th. His last four finishes on the season have all been 20th or worse, too.
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard matchup pick
Christopher Bell (-112) vs. William Byron (-112)
Byron has really struggled lately with just one Top-10 finish in his last 13 tries. Bell meanwhile has eight in that time frame, including two straight Top-4 results. Bell has crossed the finish line ahead of Byron in nine of the last 11 races.
PICK: Bell (-112)
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard preview
This is the fourth road course race of the 2022 season. The previous three were all won by first-time winners in Cup competition. Ross Chastain scored his first ever Cup win at COTA back in March. His teammate, Daniel Suarez, did the same last month in Sonoma. And earlier this month, Tyler Reddick picked up his inaugural Cup victory in Road America.
Does Indy follow suit?
AJ Allmendinger won his second career Cup race here last August and brought Kaulig Racing their first ever win in the process. In fact, five of the last 10 road course winners in the Cup Series were a driver earning their first or second career win.
Winless drivers entered for this weekend’s race? Ty Dillon (0-for-187), Corey LaJoie (0-for-185), Harrison Burton (0-for-22) and Todd Gilliland (0-for-21).
Dillon has finished 20th, 23rd, and 20th in the three road course events in 2022, LaJoie was 36th, 34th, and 34th himself while the two rookies went 17-28-22 (Burton), and 16-24-25 (Gilliland).
That’s why I feel that streak ends Sunday.
Another factor: Chevy has won each of the three road course races this season and the final six of 2021 for nine straight wins on these tracks. Going back to the 2019 race at Watkins Glen, Chevy has won 13 of the last 14 road races in general.
That’s why the Chevy drivers are tops in the odds, and despite being 0-for-3 in 2022 on road courses, is also why Hendrick Motorsports drivers are favored too.
Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are the clear heavy-hitters.
HMS had won 9 of the last 13 road course races overall entering this season. Between them, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 14 of the last 18 road course races coming into 2022.
JGR have struggled mightily on road races this year. So has SHR, which is why I feel this one will once again be largely dominated by Chevy-powered teams.
Trackhouse has won 2 of the 3 road races in 2022 with RCR taking the other.
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard key stat
This is the second race on the IMS road course, and with a new car, so no real sample of relevant stats to base anything off of for this weekend.
Verizon 200 at The Brickyard live betting trends to watch
- None of the three road course races run this year saw the winner finish in the points at the end of Stage 1. May be best to look at drivers who finished 11th-on back in Stage 1.
- Two of the three road races saw the winner finish outside of the Top 5 (eighth, fourth and 10th). For this stage though, the winner likely comes from sixth-10th as a result. Last year, the main drivers punted on stage points each time.
- Six of the last seven race winners on the season didn’t lead a single lap in the first two stages.
