LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy Picks and Predictions: Cross-City Rivalry Renewed

The LA Galaxy are in the midst of a five-match unbeaten streak but face cross-city rival LAFC on Friday night and may see that run come to an end. We're heavily targeting LAFC in the second half as they've been nothing short of dominant after the break.

Last Updated: Jul 7, 2022 2:28 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Carlos Vela LAFC MLS
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The latest edition of El Trafico takes place on Friday night when the battle of Los Angeles takes place at Banc of California Stadium. LAFC will defend their home turf, where they’re unbeaten in 10 matches in MLS play, against cross-city rivals LA Galaxy, who are on a five-match unbeaten run in the series across all competitions.

The last of those match-ups was a 3-1 victory in which they eliminated LAFC from the US Open Cup, and the home side will be keen on getting revenge.

Can LAFC continue its strong run of form at home, or will the Galaxy win at BOCS for just the second time ever? Find out in our LAFC vs LA Galaxy picks and predictions for Friday, June 8.

LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy match odds

Odds via DraftKings.

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LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy betting tips

Predictions made on 7/7/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy game info

LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy game info

Location: Banc of California Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Friday, July 8, 2022
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy betting preview

Weather

The weather in SoCal on Friday night will be right out of a Hollywood production. Sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s will make the fans and players alike very content, with zero chance of rain in the forecast. Winds should play no role in the outcome of this fixture.

Injuries

LAFC: Erik Duenas M (Out), Ismael Tajouri-Shradi F (Out), Gareth Bale F (Out).
Los Angeles Galaxy: Adam Saldana M (Out), Chase Gasper D (Out), Jorge Villafana D (Out).

LAFC vs Los Angeles Galaxy predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

It took a last-minute goal from Vancouver to end LAFC’s five-match unbeaten run on Sunday, as the top team in the Western Conference saw its lead over Austin FC cut to just two points after committing a crucial mistake. Despite holding a dominant edge in possession, LAFC failed to put a shot on target for the first time all season, an anomaly for a side that leads the league with 5.5 shots on goal per match. However, heavy rotation in the squad and a vastly different style of play were key factors in its poor performance on the offensive end.

Now they turn their attention to El Trafico, the main reason why players such as Carlos Vela were rested. Vela has six goals this season, tied with Cristian Arango for the team lead but more importantly, has three assists in his last two starts. With a new contract in hand, Vela will have to wait another week to partner with Gareth Bale, who will miss the match due to not yet having obtained his work visa. 

That news will likely bring a sigh of relief from the Galaxy staff, as it gives them a better chance to maintain their road form of late. In their seven away tilts this campaign, the Galaxy have won three and lost just twice, and have conceded just two total goals over their last four. They’ve also scored just twice in those same four, however, leading to a mixed bag of results.

Forward Dejan Jovelic is on fire at the moment. His penalty in their 4-0 win over CF Montreal on Monday night marked the fourth straight match in which he has found the back of the net. His five goals in that span have been critical in helping pick up the slack from a struggling Javier Hernandez, although Chicharito also scored in the win to give him seven on the campaign. His opener marked the sixth time this season that he has been the first name on the scoresheet. 

Hernandez and Jovelic will likely encounter a famous face when they take the pitch Friday night, with Giorgio Chiellini expected to make his LAFC debut. The former Juventus defender still possesses world-class ability and will further solidify a defense that has conceded just 19 goals in 18 matches this season, tying them for the fewest allowed in the West. 

Vancouver’s late winner was just the fourth goal LAFC has conceded in the second half all season, with just two of those coming on home turf. Furthermore, in their 10 home matches this season, LAFC has outscored opponents nine times after the halftime break. Against a Galaxy side that has scored just four times in the second half in their seven away trips, I expect the black and gold to yet again be the better team over the final stanza.

Prediction: LAFC second-half moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

There is not a whole lot of value in the total for this match. The oddsmakers are expecting plenty of goals to be scored, given that three of the last four meetings have seen at least three goals scored between the two sides. In addition, this is a matchup of the two teams with the most touches in their opponent’s final third in the entire league.

This again is where I look at LAFC’s dominance after the break. Their halftime adjustments have been stellar, with Steve Cherundolo seemingly having the golden touch in the locker room. The rotation and a fluke error are the two biggest reasons they were beaten in the second half against Vancouver, conceding for just the fourth time all season after the break. 

While this series has produced a lot of goals, the Galaxy aren’t scoring many on the road this season, and they typically find them in the first half when they do. Look for them to be shut out after the intermission on Friday by an LAFC side that has kept a second-half clean sheet in eight of their 10 home tilts this campaign. 

Prediction: LA Galaxy Under 0.5 goals in second half (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I don’t often give my side or total play out as my Best Bet, but I really love the second-half moneyline for LAFC. Breaking down the performances further, LAFC has outscored the Galaxy in five of their last six meetings during the second 45, conceding a lone goal in four of those instances. Offensively, however, they’ve put it to the Galaxy, finding the back of the net 12 times in that span.

Furthermore, the Galaxy have been woefully underperforming in front of goal this season, with just 24 goals despite their 30.1 xG being the third-highest in the league. With Chiellini’s presence helping to quell the recent form of the physical Jovelic, they should improve on their second-half record this season, having outscored their opponents 24-4 after the break and having scored multiple goals at home in seven matches. 

PickLAFC second-half moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)

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