FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union Picks and Predictions: Goalkeeper's Delight

One thing both FC Dallas and Philadelphia Union do well is suppress opponents' goals. Considering Dallas' general inability to find the net, we're bullish on this game going Under its proposed total in our MLS picks and predictions for Wednesday.

Last Updated: Aug 17, 2022 11:25 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Andre Blake Philadelphia Union MLS
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams with varying playoff agendas will square off in an inter-conference showdown on Wednesday night as FC Dallas plays host to Eastern Conference-leading Philadelphia Union. With the MLS season entering its final weeks, Dallas needs a win to keep pace in a tight playoff hunt, while the Union hopes to keep marching towards home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

Dallas has won two straight at home and will need their offense to show up against a very tight Union defense to push it to three in a row. Find out their chances of doing so in our FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 17. 

FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union match odds

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FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union betting tips

Predictions made on 8/17/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union game info

Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Date: Wednesday, August 17, 2022
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: DAZN

FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union betting preview

Weather

It’s going to be a hot one in Big D on Wednesday, with temperatures in the upper 90s near kickoff and not dropping much even after the sun sets. Players and fans might have a thunderstorm to deal with as the match goes on, which could possibly delay proceedings a bit, with a 50% chance of rain in the second half.

Injuries

FC Dallas: None.
Philadelphia Union: None.

FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

FC Dallas know they have little room for error. Currently third in the Western Conference, they’ve played at least one match more than most of the teams directly behind them in the standings. That’s an issue given the six-point gap between them and eighth place. 

After a run of matches where they were scoring early and often, the offense has dried up a bit. Their 4-1 win over the lowly San Jose Earthquakes at the weekend saw them score as many goals as they had in their previous six matches combined, putting three in the net inside the first 41 minutes. Prior to the win, Dallas had scored multiple goals in just two of their last nine matches. Thankfully, their defense made up for the lack of production, holding opponents to 10 goals in that span.

The visitors are coming off a 4-1 win over Chicago that gave Philadelphia Union their sixth win in seven matches. Their previous outing, a shocking 3-1 loss at FC Cincinnati, ended a five-match winning streak and saw them taste defeat for just the second time in their last 18 matches. After a midseason spell where they drew five straight and seven of eight, they’ve won seven of 10 and have pushed their lead atop the Eastern Conference to five points.

With only nine matches remaining, five of which are away from home, the Union know they could clinch the East with a strong run over the next month and get rested for the playoffs with home-field advantage. Their road form this season has been solid, with just three defeats in 12 versus five wins, and their stingy defense puts them in a position to win almost any match. 

The Union don’t like to have much of the ball away from home, with the second-fewest average touches in the league in road matches. However, they won’t mind that against a team like Dallas. They’ve been very good this season at shutting down opponents who lack a dynamic playmaker who can break down their compact shape with individual skill the way FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta did. 

In their toughest matches this season away from home — against NYCFC, LAFC, Columbus, and Orlando — the Union have found a way to squeak out a result. I like them to do so again against a Dallas side that is struggling of late to score and the stellar form the Union find themselves in. Take the Philadelphia double chance, or take the Union draw no bet play if the juice is a bit too much for your liking. 

Prediction: Philadelphia Union to win or draw (-150 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Union possess the top defensive unit in the entirety of MLS and it’s not even close. Having conceded just 19 goals through 25 matches, five fewer than LAFC, they’ve been stingy all season long. Away from home, it’s been even better. Prior to the FC Cincinnati defeat, the Union had conceded a total of three goals in their previous six away matches, keeping three clean sheets in the process.

Dallas has been fairly stout in defense themselves, holding Austin FC and NYCFC to just one goal apiece over the past month. In their previous five home matches, they’ve conceded a total of four goals, shutting out the Galaxy as well. They’ve allowed one goal or fewer in eight of their last nine outings. 

Combine those solid defenses with the fact that the Union don’t score a lot away from home, and this number is a gift. Jump on the under here.

Prediction: Under 2.5 (+112 at FanDuel)

Best bet

The total in this match makes absolutely no sense to me. Then again, MLS saw a record number of matches go over the posted total of 2.5 this weekend, and Dallas went for four in their match at the weekend, so maybe it’s skewing things a bit.

That said…it’s San Jose. They’re awful. They’ve conceded a league-high 53 goals this season. I’m not going to buy into Dallas’ scoring woes suddenly being fixed because they played a team that has no clue how to defend simple attacks. 

Eight of Dallas’ last 12 matches have seen two total goals or fewer scored, and that same number has failed to be breached in seven of Philadelphia’s last nine road matches. Run, don’t walk, to jump on this while it’s still at plus odds. 

PickUnder 2.5 (+112 at FanDuel)

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