The World Series and 2022 MLB season could come to an end on Saturday night as the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead.
Left-hander Framber Valdez is slated to take the mound for Houston and should be an excellent candidate to back across the board.
Here are our three favorite Framber Valdez MLB prop picks for Saturday, November 5. Also, check out JD Yonke's Game 6 picks and predictions for a full handicap!
Framber Valdez World Series Game 6 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Looking to bet on some World Series action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.
Framber Valdez World Series Game 6 props
No room to run
Philadelphia’s bats have gone quiet over the last two games as they were no-hit in Game 4 and held to just two runs in Game 5. This trend of poor hitting should continue in this season’s likely final game.
Framber Valdez has been incredible on the mound all season, as he went 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA through 30 regular season starts. His underlying metrics suggest that regression should not be an issue, as he boasts a .275 xwOBA, .226 xBA, and .343 xSLG.
This strong pitching has continued into the postseason as he’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA through three outings. In Game 2 of this series, the left-hander was brilliant against the Phillies as he allowed just one run through six and one-third innings pitched.
That game was the second time that Valdez had silenced Philly’s bats this year, as he threw five scoreless frames against them on October 5. Dating back to the regular season, Valdez has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 13 starts.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia has scored just two or fewer runs against starting pitchers in four of its last six games.
Prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-170)
Whiffle ball
Not only have the Phillies been struggling to score, but they are failing to even reach first base. Obviously, they got no-hit in Game 4, but they also only recorded four hits against Justin Verlander in Game 5.
During the regular season, Valdez boasted a 1.17 WHIP. His strong ability to limit base runners has continued into the playoffs as he possesses a 0.95 WHIP through three starts.
In Game 2 of this series, the left-hander allowed just four hits through six and one-third innings pitched. On October 5, he allowed just two hits through five scoreless innings against the Phillies as well.
Through 66 career plate appearances against Valdez, this current Philly roster possesses a mere .155 BA, .172 SLG, and .192 wOBA. Positive regression should not be a concern as they have produced a .175 xBA, .220 xSLG, and .222 xwOBA across those 66 plate appearances.
Dating back to the regular season, Valdez has surrendered five or fewer hits in five of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has recorded five or fewer hits against starting pitchers in five of its last seven games.
Prop: Under 5.5 hits allowed (-170)
Empire Strikes Back
The strikeout prop is the last angle to attack for Game 6. Valdez has dominated the Phillies in the strikeout department as he recorded nine punchouts in Game 2 and 10 in his start against them on October 5.
In fact, he‘s recorded at least seven strikeouts in eight of his last 11 starts dating back to the regular season. This year, Valdez has been elite at sitting hitters down as he boasts a 23.5 K%.
This strong strikeout ability should continue once again on Saturday night. Through 66 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this Philadelphia roster possesses a troubling 37.9 K%.
Looking at their projected lineup for Game 6, five of the Phillies’ nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
