Astros vs Phillies World Series Game 3 Predictions, Picks, Odds: Houston is Inevitable

The Philadelphia Phillies got a bit of a break with the World Series being pushed back a day due to weather. The Phillies now have a little extra time to sort out their pitching staff as the series against the Houston Astros resumes in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Phillies are now able to bump the inconsistent Noah Syndergaard for Ranger Suarez in Game 3 and while they are still moneyline underdogs in current MLB odds, the gap isn’t nearly as wide as it was yesterday.

Will Philly benefit from the extra day off and steal another game in the series, or will Houston re-take home-field advantage? I dig through the numbers and bring you a best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Phillies. Also, don't forget to check out our Game 3 MLB player props.

Astros vs Phillies Game 3 odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Astros vs Phillies picks and predictions

The biggest advantage the Astros had over the Phillies heading into this World Series was the depth of quality pitching. Now, that is mitigated a bit with Game 3 getting pushed back a day and allowing the Phillies to give their best pitchers an extra day of rest. 

But that won’t change the Astros' game plan heading into this game, starting with starter Lance McCullers Jr. The oft-injured McCullers has not looked rusty after missing most of the regular season with a forearm injury.

McCullers posted a 2.27 ERA, limited opponents to a .215 batting average, and struck out more than a batter an inning while averaging nearly six innings per start over the eight following his return. That success has carried over into the postseason, with McCullers allowing three earned runs on 10 hits while striking out 13 over 11 innings.

The Phillies on the other hand, are using the opportunity presented to them by the weather to hand the ball to Ranger Suarez instead of Noah Syndergaard. And it makes sense. Suarez has been much more reliable than Syndergaard this season. But all this has done is maybe create a little more value with the Astros.

Yes, Suarez was solid in 2022, recording a 3.65 ERA, but he’s in a tough spot against the Astros. The southpaw doesn’t have much swing-and-miss stuff, relying on his sinker and changeup to create soft contact.

Unfortunately, the Astros are one of the most patient teams in baseball, more than happy to take the ball the other way or take a walk and pass the baton. On top of that, Houston also performs better against left-handers, ranking seventh in batting average and second in both OPS and wRC+ in the regular season. 

I don’t hate taking the Astros on the full-game moneyline considering the edge they have in the bullpen as well, but I really like the value with them having a lead through five innings in Game 3.

My best bet: Astros -0.5 first five innings (+115 at DraftKings)

Astros vs Phillies World Series odds

Teams	Odds to win series
Houston Astros	-170
Philadelphia Phillies	+145

Astros vs Phillies moneyline analysis

The Astros opened the re-lined Game 3 as -120 road favorites, which is quite a shift considering at one point they were as much as -150 yesterday before the game was postponed. The early money has moved to Houston -125 but like I said previously, the biggest takeaway I see from the game being moved is we get a little more value on Houston.

McCullers has the edge over Suarez when it comes to starting pitching. McCullers also pitched a game against Philadelphia late in the season where the Phillies still threw a lineup out of all their regulars. McCullers went six innings in that game, allowing just one run on six hits.

Suarez started the very next game in that series against the Astros, lasting just three innings while surrendering six runs on seven hits. 

Then there are the bullpens. The Astros bullpen is on a level all on its own. Houston ranked first in ERA, first in strikeouts per nine innings, and fourth in opponent batting average this season. Philadelphia ranked 23rd, fifth, and 22nd in those same categories. 

There might be some value with the Phillies once again in Game 4 with Aaron Nola taking the ball, but fading the Astros feels like a hard thing to do. 

Astros vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

After a postseason full of totals in the 6.5-7 range, we see one of 8 for Game 3. This is the exact same number we were getting when Syndergaard was slated to start yesterday, so oddsmakers aren’t seeing a whole lot of difference between him and Suarez.

With a postseason total this high, my gut reaction is to lean toward the Under. McCullers has been very effective despite limited innings, and Philadelphia’s pitching has performed well at home during the postseason. 

That said, I have real concerns about Suarez’s ability to pitch deep into this ball game against a deep Astros lineup, and one that has put up five or more runs in four consecutive games. And even with the extra day off, it won’t be a good thing if the Phillies have to go to the bullpen early.

And even if McCullers pitches well, you still have to respect the fact that this Phillies lineup has been one of the most dangerous in baseball for the latter part of the season and ranked eighth in OPS when facing right-handers in the regular season. 

All things considered, I think there is value to be found elsewhere. I’ll stay away from the Over/Under.

Astros vs Phillies trend to know

The Astros are 40-11 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies

Astros vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA): The Astros are thrilled with what they have gotten out of McCullers since his return from injury and he has performed at his best when it matters most. The right-hander owns a 2.77 ERA over 18 career postseason appearances (18 starts).

Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA): Suarez struggled as the season wore on. His 4.55 ERA in September/October was the second-highest of any month. The postseason results have been a mixed bag. He's allowed just two earned runs but has a 4.91 FIP over his first two playoff starts.

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