MLB Win Total Picks Based On The Bat X Projections: Brotherly Love

If you're hacking through the weeds to make your betting picks for 2022 MLB win totals, we can help. Derek Carty's THE BAT X system has win-loss projections for every MLB team and we compare those to sportsbook O/U totals to gain an edge in our picks.

Last Updated: Apr 4, 2022 4:05 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Nick Castellanos Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

MLB win total odds for the 2022 season have been on the board for a few weeks. These can serve as a fun alternative to simply wagering on World Series odds, MLB MVP odds, Cy Young odds, MLB Rookie of the Year odds, or MLB Home Run Title odds. And while you can dig deep into each roster to find out which team is in a good position to pay dividends, perhaps there's a better, more efficient way of making your selections.

Enter Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system. Carty's projected win totals for every team may just be the difference between hitting on your wagers and coming up short. Let's look at a few totals to target based on the discrepancies between THE BAT X's projections and the lines available at sportsbooks.

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THE BAT X 2022 MLB win-loss projections

Team Projected Wins (via THE BAT X) Win Total O/U
Los Angeles Dodgers 100.0 97.5
Philadelphia Phillies 93.1 85.5
Atlanta Braves 92.4 91.5
Milwaukee Brewers 91.1 89.5
New York Yankees 90.8 91.5
Toronto Blue Jays 89.5 92.5
Houston Astros 88.7 91.5
Chicago White Sox 86.8 91.5
New York Mets 86.1 88.5
Tampa Bay Rays 85.0 89.5
San Diego Padres 84.3 90.5
Boston Red Sox 83.6 85.5
Minnesota Twins 83.6 81.5
San Francisco Giants 83.5 85.5
Los Angeles Angels 82.8 83.5
Seattle Mariners 79.4 83.5
St. Louis Cardinals 79.0 84.5
Cincinnati Reds 78.7 74.5
Cleveland Guardians 78.4 76.5
Texas Rangers 77.8 74.5
Miami Marlins 77.7 76.5
Kansas City Royals 72.3 74.5
Detroit Tigers 69.9 77.5
Washington Nationals 69.5 71.5
Colorado Rockies 69.2 68.5
Arizona Diamondbacks 68.8 66.5
Baltimore Orioles 68.4 62.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 68.1 65.5
Chicago Cubs 68.0 75.5
Oakland Athletics 67.2 68.5

THE BAT X uses Statcast data (ex. barrels, exit velocity, launch angle, sprint speed, and several variations of each). THE BAT is the older system that's been around since before Statcast was developed. Derek Carty created THE BAT X a couple of years ago by using the original methodology of THE BAT and layering on Statcast data. It's only available for hitters so far, the pitcher version is still in development. FantasyPros recently showed that THE BAT X was the most accurate standalone system in 2021 (and THE BAT was next in line).

Win total odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 4, 2022.

2022 MLB win total picks based on THE BAT X Projections

Philadelphia Phillies Over 85.5 (-115)

The Phillies feature the reigning National League MVP in Bryce Harper and the front office has gone to great lengths to provide him with adequate offensive support by signing sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos this offseason to help boost a lineup that already includes Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorius. Infield prospect Bryson Stott has hit the piss out of the baseball throughout spring training, likely earning him the Opening Day start at third base. 

A much-improved bullpen (on paper) and a solid rotation anchored by Aaron Nola and 2022 Cy Young finalist Zack Wheeler and the Phillies at least look poised to end their lengthy postseason drought (they last played a playoff game in 2011). And at least one of their chief rivals, the New York Mets, has been weakened by a shoulder injury to ace Jacob deGrom that will prevent him from pitching for an unknown amount of time. 

THE BAT X projects 93.1 wins for Philadelphia, a discrepancy of 7.6 in favor of the Over, which is the widest margin between the projections and sportsbook totals available. 

Cincinnati Reds Over 74.5 (-105)

I know, I know, the Reds are in total teardown mode after trading Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, and Eugenio Suarez this winter and also lost the aforementioned Castellanos to the Phillies in free agency. As counterintuitive as it may seem, however, Cincinnati might not be as dead in the water as they seem at first blush.

Castellanos hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs in 138 games (585 plate appearances), so that's admittedly a big void to fill. The Reds have so far brought in Tommy Pham and Colin Moran via free agency and will be looking for bounce-back campaigns from Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel, both of whom missed considerable time due to injury in 2021. Carty's projections — via the players' FanGraphs pages — are at least somewhat bullish on that crew supplementing lost value on the offensive side of things. Moustakas is projected to hit 24 homers while slashing .243/.315/.457 for 1.6 WAR. Meanwhile, Pham (19 HR, .270/.367/.459, 2.2 WAR) and former can't-miss prospect Senzel (10 HR, 11 SB, .274/.335/.441, 1.7 WAR) could also be ready for solid campaigns.

As for Gray and Wade Miley — the latter was claimed off waivers by the Cubs in November — Cincinnati will give top pitching prospect Hunter Greene a look in the rotation to start the year and Nick Lodolo might be right there with him. 

From a betting perspective, all this means the Reds are probably being a little too undervalued and betting the Over on their win total could pay off huge.

Detroit Tigers Under 77.5 (-110)

The Tigers are a popular pick to take the next step in their development this season based on the arrival of slugging first baseman Spencer Torkelson, the signings of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, and the expectation that Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal improve further from their rookie campaigns.

The overall lineup still leaves something to be desired. Miguel Cabrera is a year older and hasn't been himself in several seasons. And Baez's production is widely varied. He is undoubtedly talented — a former MVP finalist — but he strikes out an ungodly amount of the time and doesn't draw walks. His defense has been a selling point, but is that enough? Basically, there are too many variables to put too much trust in the Tigers rising through the AL Central ranks. 

THE BAT X projects a 69.9-win campaign. If they reach those 70 victories, Detroit still falls well short of its sportsbook total. And yes, the Tigers finished 2021 with a 75-85 record so it may seem strange to expect a worse outcome with a theoretically better roster, but division rivals like the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals are both improved. The division is still comparatively weak to, say, the AL East, but it's not a complete joke like it has been, except for perhaps the Cleveland Guardians.

We're comfortable betting the Under.

Chicago Cubs Under 75.5 (-110)

Folks, the Cubs are bad. No, not quite Pirates-level, apocalyptically bad, but terrible all the same. It could be argued that they punched above their weight class en route to a 71-91 record in 2021 (68-94 Pythagorean record per Baseball Reference), but they still had the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez for at least the first half of the season. In the second half, the Cubs fell apart with a 27-45 record.

Now, yes, Chicago signed right-hander Marcus Stroman and Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki to lucrative deals, but is that going to be enough to move the needle? Carty's system doesn't seem to think the offense will provide enough support — even in a hilariously bad NL Central — to make much of a difference. Other additions like Jonathan Villar, Clint Frazier, and Nick Madrigal (who was injured when acquired at the trade deadline last summer) may not mean much this summer as the team navigates what fans hope will be a short-term rebuild. Outfield prospect Brennen Davis may make his debut this summer, for example.

Still, the projection has the Cubs winning 7.5 fewer games than their O/U total. The future might be bright, but that's down the road.

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 92.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them fewer than 91 games instead of winning 93+ games. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 92.5 but increased the vig on the UNDER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the OVER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).

  • OVER 92.5 WINS (-105)
  • UNDER 92.5 WINS (-115)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.

MLB Win Total FAQ

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