The Chicago White Sox visit the Minnesota Twins for the final time in the 2022 season, as the two teams open a three-game series on Tuesday.
With the Cleveland Guardians clinching the AL Central title, the Twins and White Sox are now both barely hanging on in the wild card race.
Both teams are playing out the string, but the pitching matchup should lead to a competitive game tonight. We’ll break down who has the edge in our MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Twins on September 27.
White Sox vs Twins best odds
White Sox vs Twins picks and predictions
The White Sox and Twins have both rapidly fallen out of the playoff race over the past two weeks. With the Guardians opening a 10-game lead and the wild card positions out of reach, Chicago and Minnesota are largely playing for bragging rights down the stretch.
Still, with both teams remaining mathematically alive for the postseason, we should see both sides trotting out their best lineups. We’ll also see two solid pitchers on the mound tonight, as the White Sox send veteran Lance Lynn to the mound to take on 27-year-old Bailey Ober.
Lynn is the far more accomplished pitching in his career, but both have been solid this year. Ober suffered a groin injury that kept him on the injured list for over three months earlier this year, limiting him to just 43 2-3 innings so far in 2022. However, he has thrown to a 3.71 ERA in that time, mostly in starts of around five innings.
Chicago comes into tonight’s game as a slight favorite despite being on the road and riding a six-game losing streak. That’s a sign of respect for Lynn, who continues to go deep in games and put up solid numbers. Over his last eight starts, Lynn has given up more than two earned runs only once — in his most recent outing against the Guardians on September 21.
Minnesota matches up well against Lynn. The Twins faced him twice in July, scoring 11 runs over 10 innings in those outings while knocking Lynn out of the game after just five innings on both occasions.
While that may be a small sample size, Minnesota has put up strong numbers against right-handed pitching all season long. The Twins are hitting .250 with a .723 OPS on the year against righties, significantly better than they do against left-handed pitching.
Chicago has the opposite platoon splits. The White Sox have been among the best teams in the league at hitting southpaws, but are 23rd in the majors with a .684 OPS against right-handed pitching. They struggled to generate much against Ober in their one meeting with him this season, scoring just one run on five hits over five innings back on April 22.
Between the White Sox's terrible play as of late, the fact that the Twins are playing at home, and the pitching matchup, Minnesota should be the favorite in this game. Instead, we can get a plus number on the Twins tonight at all major sportsbooks. I like the Twins to win straight up as an underdog in Tuesday’s matchup.
My best bet: Twins moneyline (+110 at Unibet)
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White Sox vs Twins moneyline analysis
Chicago opened tonight’s game as a slight favorite, with most books offering the White Sox at around -120. The line has since moved a few more points in Chicago’s direction, with the consensus settling around -125 in the White Sox's favor.
The Twins and White Sox have both struggled as of late, and both are now sub-.500 teams. Chicago has lost six straight to fall to 76-77, while the Twins have dropped eight of 10, and are now at 74-79.
These two teams haven’t just been mediocre in the standings, but have also played each other evenly so far on the season. Minnesota leads the season series 7-6, with the AL Central rivals set to play six more games against each other over the final two weeks of the season.
The Twins have at least played well in front of their home fans. Minnesota is 44-34 this year at Target Field. However, the White Sox have actually played better away from home this year, posting a solid 41-34 road record.
Both teams have been solid behind their respective starters. The White Sox have gone 11-8 when Lynn is on the mound, while the Twins have posted a 5-4 record behind Ober.
With little to separate the two sides, especially as they both have struggled mightily in recent days, I think the pitching matchup really is the key here. Sportsbooks are putting a lot of stock into Lynn carrying the White Sox on the road, but the righty vs. righty matchup plays perfectly for Minnesota.
Lefties Luiz Arraez and Nick Gordon are both posting OPS numbers above .800 against right-handed pitching this year, and will add depth at the top of the lineup against Lynn to go along with Carlos Correa. On the other hand, Chicago’s lineup has struggled against right-handed pitching all year long, and there’s no reason to think that will change on Tuesday.
White Sox vs Twins Over/Under analysis
The total has held steady at just seven runs in tonight’s game. With both Minnesota and Chicago struggling with injuries to some of their top bats, runs should be at a premium, even for two offenses that have put up reasonable numbers this year.
Both the White Sox (4.31 runs per game) and the Twins (4.28) are a bit below average for the season when it comes to scoring. However, healthier lineups earlier in the year boosted those numbers. Over the past two weeks, Chicago is down to just 3.83 runs per game, while Minnesota is faring even worse, averaging just 3.57 runs in that period.
Injuries are the big culprit here. The Twins lost star outfielder Byron Buxton for the year last week, as he agreed to undergo knee surgery after playing through pain this season. Buxton was hitting just .224, but led the team with 28 homers and put up a .833 OPS on the season.
The White Sox have fared even worse in the injury department. Shortstop Tim Anderson has been out since mid-August with a hand injury, while Chicago recently shut down outfielder Luis Robert for the season with a sprained wrist. It’s unlikely Anderson will return this season either.
Lynn and Ober have both been fine this season, but neither has been so good that we should assume they’ll shut down the opposite side tonight. I’m staying away from the total, as seven seems right on the money for a game between two mediocre offenses facing reliable starters.
White Sox vs Twins trend to know
The White Sox are 0-4 in their last four games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins
White Sox vs Twins game info
|Location:||Target Field, Minneapolis, MN|
|Date:||Tuesday, September 27, 2022|
|First pitch:||7:40 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports North|
Lance Lynn (7-6, 4.02 ERA): While not living up to his 2021 All-Star performance, Lynn has put in solid work for the White Sox this year. After some early struggles, Lynn has rebounded well over the past eight starts. Since August 14, he is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA in 50 innings of work.
Bailey Ober (1-3, 3.71 ERA): In just his second year in the majors, Ober looks like he’ll stick, as he has posted an excellent 3.07 FIP while allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings in his 43.2 innings of work this season. He took the loss in his last start, giving up three runs on seven hits in five innings of work against the Kansas City Royals on September 21.
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