Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Gilbert and Santander Shine, Kelly Gets Clobbered

With just nine games on the slate today, we had to look a little deeper to find the best value. With that said, we found plenty of it, with a pair of pitchers expected to have opposite nights, and a Baltimore hitter to get the bat rolling.

Last Updated: Sep 19, 2022 1:53 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Logan Gilbert Seattle Mariners MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We are coming down the home stretch of the MLB season. This week kicks off lightly with just nine games on the baseball betting board, but there is still plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.

Logan Gilbert will look to power the Mariners one step closer to ending their long postseason drought when he takes the ball against the swing-happy Angels. Anthony Santander should do some slugging against the Tigers, and Merril Kelly could be in for another short night against the Dodgers.

Check out the best MLB player prop bets for Monday, September 19.

MLB props for September 19

Picks made on 9/19/2022 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Gilbert the great

If the Seattle Mariners finally break their lengthy postseason drought, they will be a problem for opponents thanks to their outstanding starting pitching — which Logan Gilbert is a big part of. The right-hander has taken a big jump in his second big league season, pitching to a 3.19 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and more importantly, he seems to be peaking at the right time. 

Gilbert has surrendered just one earned run while limiting opponents to a .177 batting average over three starts in September and has also seen an uptick in his strikeouts  punching out 23 batters over 17 innings pitched in that span. And he’ll have a great chance to keep racking up the Ks in today’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.

Even though the Angels have put up more of a fight recently, they are still striking out at a higher rate than anyone in baseball. The Angels are striking out 26.9% of the time when facing right-handed hurlers, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the next closest team. Their 9.61 strikeouts per game are also the most in baseball.

Gilbert’s strikeout total is set at a moderate 5.5 for this American League West showdown, and that’s a number we can attack the Over on. Not only is he in a strikeout groove, but he has also eclipsed it in both of his starts against the Angels.

He should get a boost by being able to pitch fairly deep into a ball game against an Angles team that ranks 21st in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. Gilbert stays in his groove and cashes the Over on his strikeout prop here.

Logan Gilbert Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)

Santander stays slashing

The Baltimore Orioles got a much-needed win with a big ninth-inning comeback to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday. Now, they’ll try to carry that momentum over into their next series against the Detroit Tigers.

The Orioles will need their offense to kick into high gear if they hope to make up some ground in the Wild Card race, and they’ll get a good chance to do just that when they dig in against Tigers starter Tyler Alexander.

The left-hander is having a tough season, pitching to an expected ERA of 5.40. He is also surrendering a .287 expected BA, and a .496 expected slugging percentage — both of which are in the Bottom 3% of MLB.

My favorite Oriole to take advantage of this is slugger Anthony Santander. The O’s outfielder is having a productive season hitting .248 with a .773 OPS, including 27 home runs. Additionally, Santander hammers southpaws, with his batting average and OPS bumping up to .296 and .898.

Santander should get a couple of knocks or an extra-base hit in this matchup and at close to even money is a good bet to cash the Over on his total bases prop.

Anthony Santander Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Kelly clobbered

Merrill Kelly is having a really good season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right-hander is 12-6 with a 3.01 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .219 batting average. Now, imagine how good his season would be if the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t exist. 

Yes, the Dodgers have been a thorn in the side of Kelly all season long (which to be fair, can be said about most starting pitchers in the National League this year), and that’s who he’ll stare across at when he takes the mound on Monday night.

The numbers aren’t pretty. In four starts against L.A. this season, Kelly has been roughed up for an 8.50 ERA, with a 2.06 WHIP, and a 1.042 OPS (his worst against any opponent this season), over 18 innings of work. And it’s that last number that really interests us here today.

Kelly’s outs recorded prop has hit the board at 17.5, which for his season-long numbers, seems a little low. However, he is averaging just 4.5 innings per start when he toes the rubber against the Dodgers and has thrown five innings or fewer (15 outs) in each of his last three starts against L.A.

Like I said, not many starters can navigate this stacked Dodgers’ lineup with much success, but they really seem to have a feel for Kelly’s stuff and game plan to attack them. Getting the Under outs recorded at plus money is a solid value.

Merrill Kelly Prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+115)

MLB parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $70.39 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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