Mets vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Aces deGrom & Fried Shut Down Offenses

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will wrap up a four-game series on Thursday night at Truist Park.

Last night was certainly an entertaining one. The Braves made multiple attempts at a comeback, but in the end, the Mets won and we claimed our second straight sweep of winning picks in this series. New York’s win snapped an eight-game winning streak for Atlanta and widened the gap in the NL East divisional race to 4.5 games. 

Can the Braves win the series? Find out our MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, August 18, 2022.

Mets vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mets opened up as -115 favorites for the second straight game. Since then, they have taken some more money and dropped to around -125. The Braves are returning at +115 on the moneyline. 

The total opened at 7.0 and hasn't moved by this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Braves predictions

• Prediction: Mets F5 ML (-140)
• Prediction: Braves F5 TT Under 1.5 (-145)
• Best bet: Neither Team Scores 4 Runs (+235)

Picks made on 8/18/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Braves game info

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports South

Mets vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1.62 ERA): All of deGrom's numbers have been elite since his return, including a fastball velocity that ranks number one among starting pitchers. The righty has produced an MBA this season of .158, which is good for the second best in his career. In deGrom’s three starts this season, he’s surrendered three runs, two of which came via a home run. He is coming off of a six-inning scoreless showing against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Max Fried (10-4, 2.60 ERA): Fried has been pretty good in his own right this season. His ability to induce soft contact has been tremendous as his hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity have produced elite numbers and rank in the Top 20% of all pitchers. He has made 21% of hits as fly-balls which is a bit higher than the league average, but usually, those are on soft contact.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in the Braves' last seven home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves

Mets vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

We have what I — and many others — believe to be the best pitcher in baseball facing off another Top-5 starter in the National League so this feels pretty straightforward. I’m not going to go against deGrom at the correct price, especially when I get that same price in the first five innings market. 

I’m unsure what metric to throw at you here for deGrom because they are all dominant. Basically, take your pick. His two earned runs allowed against the Braves the last time he saw them are highly misleading as they came on the final pitch of an outing that was, up to that point, a no-hitter. In fact, he had a perfect game before issuing a walk ahead of a Dansby Swanson two-run bomb.

Not only am I willing to look past that here, but I’m also willing to say it makes deGrom a better backing in this spot, given that he wants to avenge that start. I hit on this yesterday, but nobody swings and chases in baseball more than the Braves. Swinging freely helped them win the World Series a season ago, but it’s a nightmare against a pitcher who has made his career on batters chasing. I can’t turn down this spot. 

And even though he lasted just 5 2-3 in that last outing, he only allowed one hit while striking out 12.

On the other side, we have Max Fried. I’m not going to pretend there is some massive edge here with him on the mound, either. As I said at the onset, two Top-5 pitchers are going at it. These are tiny margins that decide things. Fried is an extreme ground ball pitcher as his 50.5% ground-ball rate ranks ninth among all qualified starters.

He finds success by inducing soft contact but can get BABIP'd to death against teams that don't swing and miss too much, which characterizes the Mets perfectly. Fried has allowed two earned runs in each of his three starts vs. New York this season and he's coming off a short stint on the concussion IL, so he may not be long for tonight's start.

I’m backing the Mets to get a run or two on Fried early and that should be all it takes to cash. 

Prediction: Mets first five innings moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This isn’t complicated. I'll happily back the early Under on the Braves against deGrom. 

This total is probably an entire run higher than it should be because of yesterday's game and how the Braves managed to ultimately get to Max Scherzer, even in an eventual loss.

But if you read yesterday, it was something we expected. The Braves were uniquely set up to have some success against him. Add up the rain delay, and you’ve created the perfect storm. They don’t have those matchup advantages against deGrom, and it’s just that simple. I fully expect deGrom to go five or six scoreless innings, which makes the early Under an easy take. 

My projections see a nice edge here. They have the Braves going Under this total close to 70% of the time. That’s the best edge we have anywhere in this game and I can’t pass it up. 

Prediction: Braves first five innings team total Under 1.5 (-145 at DraftKings)

Best bet

There are a few markets I’ll take a look at here. I’ll take the ladder approach on deGrom’s strikeout props, as he has a great matchup. I’ll also take some alternate Unders, as this looks like a low-scoring game. And my Best Bet plays along with that as I’ll be grabbing the “neither team to score four runs” prop at an attractive price.

I’ve talked glowingly about both pitchers today and how I expect both to come with their best game. But this just comes down to numbers playing for me. I have both teams scoring less than four runs about 55% of the time. That represents a 25% edge against the current number on DraftKings. 

Let’s take this and make it three straight Best Bet cashes.

Pick: Neither team to score four runs (+235 at DraftKings)

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