Brewers vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: Relief Hurlers Give Milwaukee Slight Edge

After dropping the first of three games to the Padres, the Milwaukee Brewers hunkered down and allowed just two runs combined in the final two games to bring home their fourth-straight series.

They will now open a four-game set on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are looking to close the 3.5-game gap between them and the Brewers in the NL Central.

Can the Cardinals set their best foot forward in the opening game on Thursday night or will the Brewers demonstrate why they're atop the division?

Continue reading for MLB picks and predictions for the Brewers vs. Cardinals to find out.

Brewers vs Cardinals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Cardinals opened as -118 favorites and have since moved to -125. The total opened at 7.5 and that is still the current number, but with the Under juiced more favorably in most cases.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Cardinals predictions

• Prediction: Brewers ML (+108)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (+102)
• Best bet: Brewers ML (+108)

Picks made on 5/26/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Cardinals game info

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Thursday, May 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Brewers vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Eric Lauer (4-1, 2.16 ERA): Lauer's potential was largely written off following his first three seasons, pitching to a 4.75 ERA across two seasons with the Padres and four appearances in his first season with Milwaukee in 2020. Lauer turned heads last year when he put together a 3.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP season. He has been even better this season (2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and is coming off of a shutout seven-inning outing against the Nationals in which he allowed five hits and no walks.

Adam Wainwright (5-3, 2.87 ERA): In the offseason of each of the last several years, many have suggested that Wainwright's wheels had to fall off sometime soon. However, since posting a career-worst 5.11 ERA in 2017 at the age of 35, Wainwright has improved upon his ERA in each of the four seasons since, culminating most recently with a 3.05 ERA last year. The now 40-year-old is defying the odds once again and has a 2.87 ERA through eight starts in 2022, and is coming off of a one-run seven-inning performance.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Josh Hader RP (Bereavement), Hunter Renfroe RF (Out), Willy Adames SS (Out).
Cardinals: Yadier Molina C (Bereavement), Alex Reyes RP (Out), Dylan Carlson RF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers have gone over Thursday's 7.5 total in four of Eric Lauer's seven starts, and the Cardinals have gone over that total in five of Adam Wainwright's eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals

Brewers vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Eric Lauer has been dialed in since last July, posting a 2.32 ERA in 21 starts. During that span, he is third in ERA and batting average allowed (1.94) and is one of just five pitchers allowing a batting average below .200 (min. 120 IP). Lauer largely gets through batters by generating flyouts, posting the 11th-highest flyball rate (44.9%) during that time. Although that could theoretically open him up to home runs, with his 9.8% home run to flyball ratio ranking 16th during that time.

The 27-year-old has been even more brilliant to start 2022, largely due to his increased ability to generate strikeouts. His 11.17 strikeouts per nine is a 32% increase over last year's number and his strikeout rate ranks in the 92nd percentile thus far. Throw in his 85th-percentile walk rate, and it's no wonder the man is pitching as well (if not better) as teammate and reigning NY Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.

Tonight he will face a lineup he has handled rather well, although it is an admittedly smaller sample of 44 plate appearances. Lauer has allowed just a .179 batting average and a .282 slugging percentage, and outside of Albert Pujols 1-for-1, no Cardinals batter possesses a batting average above .250. That bodes well for the Brewers considering the Cardinals' 4.84 runs per game rank third in the MLB.

Taking the mound opposite of Lauer is the 40-year-old Adam Wainwright, who is in his 17th season - all with the Cardinals organization. Following his 2016 and 2017 campaigns in which he posted 4.62 and 5.11 ERAs, many figured that was the beginning of the end for the three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glover.

However, he has found the second prime in the moonlight of his career, improving upon his ERA in each of the last four seasons. The righty pitched to a 3.05 ERA and 17-7 record last year while being one of just four pitchers to accumulate 200+ innings while also leading the majors in complete games at the ripe age of 39. Wainwright is once again defying the odds in 2022, pitching to an even better 2.87 ERA and going under five innings in just one start so far.

Wainwright has a much larger sample of 253 batters faced against the Brewers but has seemingly struggled against them more than others. He has allowed a .283 batting average and a .483 slugging percentage while striking out just 15.4% of batters, a mark well below the 20-22% range he has posted in the last four seasons.

Omar Narvaez (1.097 OPS in 20 PA) has had the most success against Wainwright, while Andrew McCutchen (.819 OPS in 81 PA), Kolten Wong (1.015 OPS in 15 PA), and Keston Hiura (.929 in 14 PA) have also touched him up a good amount.

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The Cardinals have played to a 22-19-2 (53.7%) Over record, good for eighth in MLB. The Brewers are a much lower 17th, possessing a 19-22-3 (46.3%) record.

Given how well both pitchers have played in 2022, the total of 7.5 does seem a touch high despite being a relatively low total overall. However, despite Eric Lauer's dominance, the Brewers have played Over Thursday's mark of 7.5 in four of his seven starts. In Wainwright's eight starts, the Cardinals have gone Over 7.5 in five.

On top of that, the humidity is projected to be in the 73-81% range for the game which is well above the 50% standard that balls are stored at in all 30 parks in 2022. For the unaware, baseballs travel further as humidity rises. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (+102 at FanDuel)

Best bet

By all accounts, Thursday night's series-opening game between the Brewers and Cardinals figures to be a pitching duel. Both Lauer and Wainwright have put together an extended body of work as of late to make either a tough pitcher to bet against.

And while the Brewers' have had a better go at Wainwright in the past compared to how the Cardinals have fared against Lauer, the Cardinals having the better offense as a whole this season (4.82 runs per game to Milwaukee's 4.57) cannot be ignored.

If we have an effective tie across the starting pitching and the lineup, then the only other place to look is at the bullpen. It doesn't take the most clued-in MLB bettor to know that the Brewers have had one of the best bullpens for years now, and this season is no different.

Milwaukee's bullpen ranks second in cumulative WAR, third in FIP, fourth in strikeout rate, first in saves, and sixth in holds. For comparison, the Cardinals are 25th in WAR, 29th in FIP, 29th in strikeout rate, 19th in saves, and 24th in holds.

Pick: Brewers moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)

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