Blue Jays vs Orioles Picks and Predictions: Baltimore Steals Another Underdog Win

Toronto's grip on the top of the Wild Card is slowly starting to slip after Baltimore took the first two games of the series. Can the home side pull off another underdog win? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.

Last Updated: Aug 10, 2022 12:37 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Anthony Santander Baltimore Orioles MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Hey, Toronto Blue Jays fans. Are you worried yet? The Baltimore Orioles have taken the first two games of this American League East showdown and are now just two games behind the Jays for the top spot in the AL wild-card race.

Tonight, the surging O’s go for the sweep of their division rivals when they hand the ball to Dean Kremer, but they’ll be underdogs against Toronto for the third straight game who counter with Jose Berrios. Can Baltimore pull off a third straight upset?

Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on Wednesday, August 10.

Blue Jays vs Orioles odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as roughly -150 road favorites but the O’s have seen the very early money with the line now in the -140 range. The total hit the board at 8.5 which was quickly bet to 9.0. That number is juiced to the Under as of Wednesday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions

Picks made on 8/10/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Orioles game info

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date: Wednesday, August 10, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, MASN

Blue Jays vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (8-4, 5.19 ERA): Every time it looks like Berrios has figured something out, he goes out and puts up a stinker. After a solid month of July, the right-hander is coming off an outing against the Twins which lasted just 3 2-3 innings where he surrendered five runs on six hits.

Dean Kremer (4-3, 3.43 ERA): Kremer has had one good and one bad month in his time in the big leagues this season. He gave up just four runs in June but had a tough month of July where he got lit up for a 6.94 ERA. But he got August off to a strong start with a win over the Pirates.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Orioles are 12-4 in their last 16 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles

Blue Jays vs Orioles picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Last night was a weird one for the Blue Jays. 

Toronto couldn’t get anything going against Orioles' starter Kyle Bradish, who had been struggling most of the season. When the O’s finally lifted Bradish from the game, the Jays’ bats finally woke up and took a 5-3 lead into the bottom of the sixth. Then a rain delay happened and cost them a reliever who had come on the mound to warm up before the delay. 

Then Baltimore came out of the delay with all the momentum and took Game 2 of this series 6-5. It was the Orioles' seventh win in their last eight games as they are 23-8 in their last 31 overall. And they have value as an underdog as they go for the sweep.

That value starts with Berrios. While he appeared to turn things around in July, his inconsistencies popped up again in a loss to the Twins the last time out. The right-hander just hasn’t been able to locate his fastball well enough and opponents are crushing it to the tune of a .367 expected batting average and a .640 expected slugging percentage. 

Over the last 30 days, Baltimore's offense has been no joke, ranking ninth in batting average and OPS, and seventh in wRC+.

For Kremer, he bounced back nicely after what was his worst start of the season, by holding the Pirates scoreless on four hits over 6 1-3 innings of work. And even though he had a rough month of July, his 3.91 FIP shows he has generally been solid.

Meanwhile, the Jays seem to be missing the presence of George Springer at the top of their lineup. Springer has played just one game on this nine-game road trip to kick off August and the team is 3-5, scoring 4.25 runs per game (low by Toronto standards).

The Orioles also have the edge when it comes to the bullpens, ranking third in ERA compared to the Blue Jays at 17. 

This game should be closer to a coin flip. So, we are getting value with the underdog home team.

Prediction: Orioles moneyline (+130 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the very early money came in on the Over, bumping the number up to 9.0, and it’s not hard to see why. 

We’ve already spoken about how the Orioles will have a chance to get some knocks against Berrios but there’s more. Berrios’ home/road splits are a little wonky as a 3.23 ERA at home balloons to 7.50 on the road. On top of that, the O’s are plating 5.25 runs per game over the last eight games. 

Then when you mix in this Blue Jays' offense, look out.

While the Jays’ numbers might be down a little by their standards during this road trip, that’s still better than a lot of offenses out there. Overall, this team ranks first in batting average, second in OPS, and fourth in wRC+ when facing right-handers this season.

Both offenses have a solid chance for success, so bet on the Over to cash.

Prediction: Over 9 (+100 at Caesars)

Best bet

Anthony Santander has been locked in since coming out of the All-Star break. The Orioles’ outfielder is hitting .368 with a 1.073 OPS over 17 games and the Blue Jays have had a hard time trying to get him out.

Santander is 4-for-6 in the series so far. He has multi-hit games in each outing, including a home run in the opener. And while it’s a small sample size, he is 2-for-6 (.333) in his career vs. Berrios. At this plus money, Santander is a good value to stay hot in this matchup.

Anthony Santander Prop Pick: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at DraftKings)

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