Some of these lines really make me wonder what is going on in Vegas .. yes yes I know they know a lot more then I do but WTF
How is Washington favored by 2.5 on the road in a division game? Vegas is telling us Washington is 5.5 points better then NYG. Yes they have been on a great streak but it’s not like they blow anybody out. They barely beat Indy a few weeks ago on the road. Giants are definitely coming down to earth. But huh
Jax is a pickum on the road ? So Jax is really favored by 3. Detroit has been playing really good football. They gave Buffalo all they could handle. Ok Jax beat BALTIMORE last week but they always do at home. Say what.
Some of these lines really make me wonder what is going on in Vegas .. yes yes I know they know a lot more then I do but WTF
How is Washington favored by 2.5 on the road in a division game? Vegas is telling us Washington is 5.5 points better then NYG. Yes they have been on a great streak but it’s not like they blow anybody out. They barely beat Indy a few weeks ago on the road. Giants are definitely coming down to earth. But huh
Jax is a pickum on the road ? So Jax is really favored by 3. Detroit has been playing really good football. They gave Buffalo all they could handle. Ok Jax beat BALTIMORE last week but they always do at home. Say what.
ALso, Jasonville is 6 weeks removed from losing to the Texans at home. I believe Jax is 1-21 in their last 22 road games. That said, it looks like Trevor Lawrence may be entering into the upper echelons of NFL Qbs. Made some really impressive throws last week. But Goff at home is pretty darn Pro Bowl-ish himself. Lines are all over the place on this game depending on book. Right now -1 Jax on Caesars but +1 Jax on Draftkings. Haven't seen a spread this disjointed all season.
ALso, Jasonville is 6 weeks removed from losing to the Texans at home. I believe Jax is 1-21 in their last 22 road games. That said, it looks like Trevor Lawrence may be entering into the upper echelons of NFL Qbs. Made some really impressive throws last week. But Goff at home is pretty darn Pro Bowl-ish himself. Lines are all over the place on this game depending on book. Right now -1 Jax on Caesars but +1 Jax on Draftkings. Haven't seen a spread this disjointed all season.
The Jax game I can see a little bit. Jax is now seen as getting it all together after last week after the comeback and Lawrence playing his best game. Its one game, I know. but at least that narrative/recency bias could possibly justify the line.
Wash game I got nothin lol. I'm playing the Giants Ml there.
The Jax game I can see a little bit. Jax is now seen as getting it all together after last week after the comeback and Lawrence playing his best game. Its one game, I know. but at least that narrative/recency bias could possibly justify the line.
Wash game I got nothin lol. I'm playing the Giants Ml there.
Some of these lines really make me wonder what is going on in Vegas .. yes yes I know they know a lot more then I do but WTF How is Washington favored by 2.5 on the road in a division game? Vegas is telling us Washington is 5.5 points better then NYG. Yes they have been on a great streak but it’s not like they blow anybody out. They barely beat Indy a few weeks ago on the road. Giants are definitely coming down to earth. But huh Jax is a pickum on the road ? So Jax is really favored by 3. Detroit has been playing really good football. They gave Buffalo all they could handle. Ok Jax beat BALTIMORE last week but they always do at home. Say what. Am I missing something
recency bias, perception, injuries.
Commanders are on a roll. Giants showing some cracks. homefield advantage isn't what it once was so shouldnt be a huge factor into the pointspread i'd give HFA anywhere from 0 to 1.5 maybe 2 pts depending on the matchup/time of month/crowd noise/recent home performances. Giants don't have much of a home advantage imo, plus division rivals so familiar territory for Washington i'd give 0 pts of HFA to the Giants. number sounds about right to me. my line would be Commanders -1 which is what the books opened at. now moved up to -2.5 by the powers that be. tough game imo doesn't necesarrily mean washington is going to win but they're favored for a reason.
Jaguars/Lions is definitely a bit of a head scratcher with the line movement. i have Lions at least 2 pts better than Jags which is what Circa opened up at, but has gone the other way. could be an injury report that im missing. haven't really followed on it today. this will be a game i will be curious to look at.
Some of these lines really make me wonder what is going on in Vegas .. yes yes I know they know a lot more then I do but WTF How is Washington favored by 2.5 on the road in a division game? Vegas is telling us Washington is 5.5 points better then NYG. Yes they have been on a great streak but it’s not like they blow anybody out. They barely beat Indy a few weeks ago on the road. Giants are definitely coming down to earth. But huh Jax is a pickum on the road ? So Jax is really favored by 3. Detroit has been playing really good football. They gave Buffalo all they could handle. Ok Jax beat BALTIMORE last week but they always do at home. Say what. Am I missing something
recency bias, perception, injuries.
Commanders are on a roll. Giants showing some cracks. homefield advantage isn't what it once was so shouldnt be a huge factor into the pointspread i'd give HFA anywhere from 0 to 1.5 maybe 2 pts depending on the matchup/time of month/crowd noise/recent home performances. Giants don't have much of a home advantage imo, plus division rivals so familiar territory for Washington i'd give 0 pts of HFA to the Giants. number sounds about right to me. my line would be Commanders -1 which is what the books opened at. now moved up to -2.5 by the powers that be. tough game imo doesn't necesarrily mean washington is going to win but they're favored for a reason.
Jaguars/Lions is definitely a bit of a head scratcher with the line movement. i have Lions at least 2 pts better than Jags which is what Circa opened up at, but has gone the other way. could be an injury report that im missing. haven't really followed on it today. this will be a game i will be curious to look at.
Detroit's pass rush isn't great but the Jags have one of the worst sack rates in the NFL. Goff at home with time is not a good combination for opposing defenses. We'll see... Kind of a toss up game but I do not trust Jags on the road against a Detroit team that's playing really well right now. Again, who's the only team that lost to the consensus worst team in football, the Texans?? The Jags - at home a few weeks ago. I project a close game but am passing on the Jags. Lions or tease Lions to +7.
Detroit's pass rush isn't great but the Jags have one of the worst sack rates in the NFL. Goff at home with time is not a good combination for opposing defenses. We'll see... Kind of a toss up game but I do not trust Jags on the road against a Detroit team that's playing really well right now. Again, who's the only team that lost to the consensus worst team in football, the Texans?? The Jags - at home a few weeks ago. I project a close game but am passing on the Jags. Lions or tease Lions to +7.
Division, non-division whatever. Hard to trust any team that loses at home to the Texans, although it was several weeks ago. Ultimately, I agree that it's a red or black game on the line... But a really solid teaser option IMO.
Division, non-division whatever. Hard to trust any team that loses at home to the Texans, although it was several weeks ago. Ultimately, I agree that it's a red or black game on the line... But a really solid teaser option IMO.
Jacksonville was also coming off a bye week with Doug Peterson having time to be well prepared @home against the Baltimore Ravens team that seems to be having trouble on offense with banged up players and missing playmakers.. what’s most shocking to me is that Baltimore has big time trouble defending the pass.. if they are going to have trouble defending the pass and continue to play like this on defense they are in hot water especially since the rest of there schedule is mostly divisional games not a good spot to be in close games especially with teams in your division that can very possibly give you some losses..
after Denver
•@Pittsburgh
•@Cleveland
•VsAtlanta
•VsPittsburgh
•@Bengals
margin of error for Baltimore could start getting real small.. they definitely don’t want to begin to drop there “stock” while other teams AFC stock begin to rise.. it’s put up or shut up time for teams in the race..
Washington is a nice story…
the line definitely seems strange for them to be favored on the road by almost a fieldgoal.. Washington run game is nothing special.. Heineke has been a great game manager..the comparison to Wentz doesn’t say much except give us a perception of Heineke being really good.. He does enough but sometimes enough isn’t going to be good enough and he’s also good for 1 pick a game on average.. could be the difference in the game..
pass yards aren’t eye popping
•201 yards Greenbay
•279 yards Indianapolis
•149 yards Minnesota
•211 yards Philadelphia
•191 yards Houston
•138 yards Atlanta
The Giants play Washington Commanders the best out of the teams in there division in my opinion.. I believe Giants are also getting some players back that didn’t play versus Dallas on Thanksgiving as well..
Jacksonville was also coming off a bye week with Doug Peterson having time to be well prepared @home against the Baltimore Ravens team that seems to be having trouble on offense with banged up players and missing playmakers.. what’s most shocking to me is that Baltimore has big time trouble defending the pass.. if they are going to have trouble defending the pass and continue to play like this on defense they are in hot water especially since the rest of there schedule is mostly divisional games not a good spot to be in close games especially with teams in your division that can very possibly give you some losses..
after Denver
•@Pittsburgh
•@Cleveland
•VsAtlanta
•VsPittsburgh
•@Bengals
margin of error for Baltimore could start getting real small.. they definitely don’t want to begin to drop there “stock” while other teams AFC stock begin to rise.. it’s put up or shut up time for teams in the race..
Washington is a nice story…
the line definitely seems strange for them to be favored on the road by almost a fieldgoal.. Washington run game is nothing special.. Heineke has been a great game manager..the comparison to Wentz doesn’t say much except give us a perception of Heineke being really good.. He does enough but sometimes enough isn’t going to be good enough and he’s also good for 1 pick a game on average.. could be the difference in the game..
pass yards aren’t eye popping
•201 yards Greenbay
•279 yards Indianapolis
•149 yards Minnesota
•211 yards Philadelphia
•191 yards Houston
•138 yards Atlanta
The Giants play Washington Commanders the best out of the teams in there division in my opinion.. I believe Giants are also getting some players back that didn’t play versus Dallas on Thanksgiving as well..
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