Got these off of VSIN for teams that fit the profile of improvers for the coming season...
1) From 2010-20, 18 teams had a turnover differential of -1.0 per game or worse and did not make the playoffs. Of those 18 teams, 17 improved their win total the following season (the other equaled its win total), with an average improvement of 4.5 wins.
• Team affected in 2022: Jacksonville
2) From 2009-20, 36 teams had a negative turnover differential and won fewer than six games against the spread. Of that group, 34 improved their ATS winning percentage the following season (by an average of 20%), 30 improved their outright winning percentage (by an average of 20.2%) and 11 qualified for the playoffs (including Dallas and Philadelphia last season).
• Teams affected in 2022: Carolina, Jacksonville
3) From 2000-20, 29 teams won less than 42% of their games despite scoring at least 22 points per game. Of that group, only four declined the following season, with an average improvement of 2.5 wins.
• Team affected in 2022: Seattle
4) From 2000-20, 61 teams won less than 42% of their games despite allowing 23 points or less per game. Of that group, 43 (or 70.5%) improved the following season, with an average improvement of 3.65 wins.
• Teams affected in 2022: Denver, Seattle
5) Over the last 21 seasons, 12 teams scored at least 27 points per game and failed to make the postseason. Of that group, nine made the playoffs the following season, with two winning the Super Bowl (2009 Saints and 2020 Buccaneers). The combined record of those 12 teams in the following season was 119-74
(61.7%), with an average win total of 9.9. Las Vegas qualified for this system last season and went 10-7.
• Team affected for 2022: LA Chargers
6) Of the last 15 teams with a positive point differential and a losing record, all 15 improved or equaled their win total the following season. Eight of the 15 teams won at least 11 games the following season, with an average win total of 9.5 and an average improvement of 3.0 wins. Two Super Bowl champions came from this group (2017 Eagles and 2020 Buccaneers).
• Teams affected for 2022: Denver, Seattle
7) Of the last six teams that went 7-9 or worse despite a positive turnover and scoring differential, five made the playoffs the following season, with an average improvement of 4.2 wins.
• Teams affected in 2022: Denver, Seattle
8) From 2009-20, 22 teams had a negative turnover differential and were outscored by more than 10 points per game. Of that group, 20 improved their record the following season, with an average improvement of 3.9 wins.
• Team affected in 2022: Jacksonville, N.Y. Jets