Play Against
Road teams (CINCINNATI)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game
58-30 over the last 5 seasons.
65.9% (26.6 units)
Play Against
Road teams (CINCINNATI)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game
58-30 over the last 5 seasons.
65.9% (26.6 units)
Play Against
Road teams (CINCINNATI)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game
58-30 over the last 5 seasons.
65.9% (26.6 units)
Play On
Any team (NY YANKEES)
after 4 straight games where they had 7 or less hits against opponent after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base
58-33 over the last 5 seasons.
63.7% (29.2 units)
Play On
Any team (NY YANKEES)
after 4 straight games where they had 7 or less hits against opponent after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base
58-33 over the last 5 seasons.
63.7% (29.2 units)
lay Against
All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA ANGELS)
poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
52-36 since 1997.
59.1% (32.9 units)
lay Against
All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA ANGELS)
poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
52-36 since 1997.
59.1% (32.9 units)
Play Against
Road teams (PITTSBURGH)
ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
61-19 over the last 5 seasons.
76.3% (32.6 units)
Play Against
Road teams (PITTSBURGH)
ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
61-19 over the last 5 seasons.
76.3% (32.6 units)
Play On
All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS)
with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games
67-37 over the last 5 seasons.
64.4% (30.9 units)
Play On
All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS)
with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games
67-37 over the last 5 seasons.
64.4% (30.9 units)
Play Against
Road teams (CINCINNATI)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game
58-30 over the last 5 seasons.
65.9% (26.6 units)
Play Against
Road teams (CINCINNATI)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game
58-30 over the last 5 seasons.
65.9% (26.6 units)
Burnes Burn for an OVER in Milwaukee ? > These teams had 21 hits and 13 runs last night. There was also a double play in each of the first four innings plus a stranded bases loaded as scoring could have been even higher. Burns has allowed 10 R his last 4 starts and has declined across the board from his ’21 Cy season.
Burnes Burn for an OVER in Milwaukee ? > These teams had 21 hits and 13 runs last night. There was also a double play in each of the first four innings plus a stranded bases loaded as scoring could have been even higher. Burns has allowed 10 R his last 4 starts and has declined across the board from his ’21 Cy season.
The Rockies have had some really close games this season. However, a lot of the losses have been the result of the Rockies not being aggressive at the plate.
Most recently, they lost a three-game series to the Miami Marlins. Mind you; this is a team that had one of the best starts to their season. To beat the Twins, they need to be just as good at the plate as Minnesota.
The good news is the Rockies actually have a better batting average than Minnesota at .261. Where they might struggle today is on the mound, where Antonio Senzatela will get the start.
Senzatela has an ERA of 4.42 with a 3-3 record this season as a starter. The focus for Senzatela should be on Byron Buxton, who has already hit 19 home runs for the Twins.
It's known around the league that the Minnesota Twins have a lot of pitching problems. Getting the start today is Chris Archer, another pitcher that has struggled for Minnesota.
With a record of 1-3 as a starter, Archer is well under the .500 mark. However, to his credit, he has a fairly strong ERA of 3.44 over the course of 52.1 innings. If he can pitch well, the Twins could win this one.
At the plate, the Twins have been fairly good this year, with a team average of .249. They rank 10th overall in Major League Baseball in terms of team batting average.
Perhaps their best stat is their on-base percentage of .322 which ranks seventh in the league. More often than not, the Twins' batting is what saves them. Against Senzatela, they'll need a lot of help from their batters.
Each of these teams has had its own share of struggles. The Rockies have trouble closing games out, while the Twins have yet to address their pitching issues.
Minnesota, however, does get the benefit of playing at home, which will definitely help. This season, the Twins are 21-17 when playing at home and are 27-17 as a favorite. Because of this, we'll take the Twins tonight.
Along with taking the Twins at -187, we'll also take the under in this game. Yesterday we saw how hard it was for these teams to score. Today should mirror yesterday's game, especially if the Twins have Jhoan Duran close the game.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -187, UNDER
The Rockies have had some really close games this season. However, a lot of the losses have been the result of the Rockies not being aggressive at the plate.
Most recently, they lost a three-game series to the Miami Marlins. Mind you; this is a team that had one of the best starts to their season. To beat the Twins, they need to be just as good at the plate as Minnesota.
The good news is the Rockies actually have a better batting average than Minnesota at .261. Where they might struggle today is on the mound, where Antonio Senzatela will get the start.
Senzatela has an ERA of 4.42 with a 3-3 record this season as a starter. The focus for Senzatela should be on Byron Buxton, who has already hit 19 home runs for the Twins.
It's known around the league that the Minnesota Twins have a lot of pitching problems. Getting the start today is Chris Archer, another pitcher that has struggled for Minnesota.
With a record of 1-3 as a starter, Archer is well under the .500 mark. However, to his credit, he has a fairly strong ERA of 3.44 over the course of 52.1 innings. If he can pitch well, the Twins could win this one.
At the plate, the Twins have been fairly good this year, with a team average of .249. They rank 10th overall in Major League Baseball in terms of team batting average.
Perhaps their best stat is their on-base percentage of .322 which ranks seventh in the league. More often than not, the Twins' batting is what saves them. Against Senzatela, they'll need a lot of help from their batters.
Each of these teams has had its own share of struggles. The Rockies have trouble closing games out, while the Twins have yet to address their pitching issues.
Minnesota, however, does get the benefit of playing at home, which will definitely help. This season, the Twins are 21-17 when playing at home and are 27-17 as a favorite. Because of this, we'll take the Twins tonight.
Along with taking the Twins at -187, we'll also take the under in this game. Yesterday we saw how hard it was for these teams to score. Today should mirror yesterday's game, especially if the Twins have Jhoan Duran close the game.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -187, UNDER
It has been a long year for the Reds, but they have actually started to turn things around after a miserable start. Cincinnati comes into this game with a record of just 24-46, and they have gone 12-23 on the road.
San Francisco has some serious work to do if they are going to win the NL West for a second straight season. The Giants are just 38-32 overall this season, and they have now dropped four of their last five games.
The San Francisco Giants are the big betting favorites in this game, with moneyline odds set at -248.
The biggest reason for the miserable start for the Cincinnati Reds is that they just can’t get enough outs. Cincinnati is coming into Saturday night with a team ERA of 5.33, and that just isn’t good enough to get the job done.
Mike Minor is set to make the start on Saturday, and he has gone just 1-3 with a whopping 6.97 ERA this season. Minor is facing a Giants team that is slumping a bit, but he has to give his offense a chance to win this game.
Kyle Farmer and Brandon Drury pace the Reds on offense, but this is a team that doesn’t always do a ton of damage. Farmer has a team-high batting average of .286, and Drury leads the way with 14 home runs.
Despite scoring just two runs in the series-opening loss on Friday night, the Giants usually don’t have any trouble finding offense. San Francisco has plenty of power in the everyday lineup as they have belted 80 home runs on the year.
Joc Pederson has enjoyed his first season with the Giants as he leads the team with 16 home runs and 38 RBIs. The Giants are hitting just .240 as a team, and they could be better about getting runners on base.
Logan Webb will take the ball on Saturday, and he is 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA on the year. Webb has been one of the leaders of this pitching staff, and he needs to set the tone to help turn things around.
The Cincinnati Reds are catching the San Francisco Giants at a perfect time, and they took advantage of that in the series opener. San Francisco has simply been struggling in all areas of the game, and those struggles are going to continue in this game.
Even though the Reds have one of the worst records in baseball, they still have enough talent to do some serious damage at any given time. This should be another low-scoring affair based on the pitching matchup, and the Giants just won’t get any big hits on Saturday night.
Take the Cincinnati Reds moneyline as they pick up another impressive win on the road in San Francisco over the Giants.
It has been a long year for the Reds, but they have actually started to turn things around after a miserable start. Cincinnati comes into this game with a record of just 24-46, and they have gone 12-23 on the road.
San Francisco has some serious work to do if they are going to win the NL West for a second straight season. The Giants are just 38-32 overall this season, and they have now dropped four of their last five games.
The San Francisco Giants are the big betting favorites in this game, with moneyline odds set at -248.
The biggest reason for the miserable start for the Cincinnati Reds is that they just can’t get enough outs. Cincinnati is coming into Saturday night with a team ERA of 5.33, and that just isn’t good enough to get the job done.
Mike Minor is set to make the start on Saturday, and he has gone just 1-3 with a whopping 6.97 ERA this season. Minor is facing a Giants team that is slumping a bit, but he has to give his offense a chance to win this game.
Kyle Farmer and Brandon Drury pace the Reds on offense, but this is a team that doesn’t always do a ton of damage. Farmer has a team-high batting average of .286, and Drury leads the way with 14 home runs.
Despite scoring just two runs in the series-opening loss on Friday night, the Giants usually don’t have any trouble finding offense. San Francisco has plenty of power in the everyday lineup as they have belted 80 home runs on the year.
Joc Pederson has enjoyed his first season with the Giants as he leads the team with 16 home runs and 38 RBIs. The Giants are hitting just .240 as a team, and they could be better about getting runners on base.
Logan Webb will take the ball on Saturday, and he is 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA on the year. Webb has been one of the leaders of this pitching staff, and he needs to set the tone to help turn things around.
The Cincinnati Reds are catching the San Francisco Giants at a perfect time, and they took advantage of that in the series opener. San Francisco has simply been struggling in all areas of the game, and those struggles are going to continue in this game.
Even though the Reds have one of the worst records in baseball, they still have enough talent to do some serious damage at any given time. This should be another low-scoring affair based on the pitching matchup, and the Giants just won’t get any big hits on Saturday night.
Take the Cincinnati Reds moneyline as they pick up another impressive win on the road in San Francisco over the Giants.
Prop Picks
San Francisco (-125) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Cincinnati is allowing 5.59 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 29 in the league. That average decreases to 4.89 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone UNDER in five of the Reds last seven games versus San Francisco.
With Dunkel predicting a Cincinnati victory by the score of 3-2, take the Giants (-125) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Reds.
Mike Minor (-120) UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs
Minor has allowed 16 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched this season. The Reds’ righthander has lowered his ERA from 11.25 to 6.97 in his last three starts.
With Dunkel predicting a Cincinnati road victory while holding the Giants UNDER their team run total, take Minor (-120) to finish UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed against San Francisco.
Prop Picks
San Francisco (-125) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Cincinnati is allowing 5.59 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 29 in the league. That average decreases to 4.89 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone UNDER in five of the Reds last seven games versus San Francisco.
With Dunkel predicting a Cincinnati victory by the score of 3-2, take the Giants (-125) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Reds.
Mike Minor (-120) UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs
Minor has allowed 16 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched this season. The Reds’ righthander has lowered his ERA from 11.25 to 6.97 in his last three starts.
With Dunkel predicting a Cincinnati road victory while holding the Giants UNDER their team run total, take Minor (-120) to finish UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed against San Francisco.
The Phillies are 40-19 in their last 59 games in San Diego, are 7-1 in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record and are 4-1 in their last five games versus National League West opponents. The Padres, meanwhile, are just 7-16 in their last 23 home games versus a team with a winning record. Phil-106 /A.Rome
The Phillies are 40-19 in their last 59 games in San Diego, are 7-1 in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record and are 4-1 in their last five games versus National League West opponents. The Padres, meanwhile, are just 7-16 in their last 23 home games versus a team with a winning record. Phil-106 /A.Rome
Despite their victory last night, the Astros are still just 1-4 in their last five games at Yankee Stadium and are 2-5 in their last seven games versus the Yankees overall. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 10-2 in their last 12 games versus American League West, are 6-1 in their last seven games during the third game of a series and are 45-13 in their last 58 games overall. N,Y, -172 /A.Rome
Despite their victory last night, the Astros are still just 1-4 in their last five games at Yankee Stadium and are 2-5 in their last seven games versus the Yankees overall. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 10-2 in their last 12 games versus American League West, are 6-1 in their last seven games during the third game of a series and are 45-13 in their last 58 games overall. N,Y, -172 /A.Rome
The under is now 5-1 in the last six meetings in St. Louis, is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last five games versus a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in their last seven road games versus an opponent with a winning record. On the other side, the under is 3-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last five games versus NL Central opponents. Cubs UN 9 /A.Rome
The under is now 5-1 in the last six meetings in St. Louis, is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last five games versus a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in their last seven road games versus an opponent with a winning record. On the other side, the under is 3-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last five games versus NL Central opponents. Cubs UN 9 /A.Rome
The Dodgers are still just 1-5 in their last six games versus the Braves in Atlanta and are 3-7 in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning record. On the other side, the Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games, are 13-3 in their last 16 home games versus a left-handed starter and are 8-2 in their last 10 games versus National League West opponents. Atl -162 /A.Rome
The Dodgers are still just 1-5 in their last six games versus the Braves in Atlanta and are 3-7 in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning record. On the other side, the Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games, are 13-3 in their last 16 home games versus a left-handed starter and are 8-2 in their last 10 games versus National League West opponents. Atl -162 /A.Rome
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter this matchup first in the NL West standings with a one game lead over the second place Padres. The Dodgers swept the Reds in their most recent three-game series and have won six of their last 10 games. Los Angeles dominated the Reds in all three games, scoring total 26 runs while giving up 11. This has been a common theme for the Dodgers this season as they rank third in runs per game (5.17) and first in team ERA (2.93). Right-handed pitcher Mitch White is scheduled to start Saturday. White is 1-1 in nine games this season with an ERA of 3.86 and has given up 19 hits, 11 earned runs, and struck out 27 batters in 25.2 innings.
Atlanta is currently second in the NL East standings, four games behind the New York Yankees for first place. The Braves most recently went 3-1 SU in a series with San Francisco and have won seven of their last 10 games. Atlanta played well against the Giants, scoring 23 runs throughout the series while giving up 22. In the month of June, the Braves have been the hottest team in baseball, winning 14 straight at one point and 18 of their last 21. The left-hander Max Fried is expected to take the mound Saturday. Fried is 7-2 in 14 games this season with an ERA of 2.77 and has given up 77 hits, 27 earned runs, and struck out 83 batters in 87.2 innings of work.
I like the Braves to take game-two of this series. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in the MLB, but this will be the best matchup for the Braves to win. Max Fried has been excellent in most of his starts this season and should be able to keep the Dodgers bats at bay. Mitch White will be making his return from Triple A ball, and I expect him to struggle a bit against this hot Braves offense. Backing Atlanta moneyline here. Atl 5-4 /By J.Hedrick
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter this matchup first in the NL West standings with a one game lead over the second place Padres. The Dodgers swept the Reds in their most recent three-game series and have won six of their last 10 games. Los Angeles dominated the Reds in all three games, scoring total 26 runs while giving up 11. This has been a common theme for the Dodgers this season as they rank third in runs per game (5.17) and first in team ERA (2.93). Right-handed pitcher Mitch White is scheduled to start Saturday. White is 1-1 in nine games this season with an ERA of 3.86 and has given up 19 hits, 11 earned runs, and struck out 27 batters in 25.2 innings.
Atlanta is currently second in the NL East standings, four games behind the New York Yankees for first place. The Braves most recently went 3-1 SU in a series with San Francisco and have won seven of their last 10 games. Atlanta played well against the Giants, scoring 23 runs throughout the series while giving up 22. In the month of June, the Braves have been the hottest team in baseball, winning 14 straight at one point and 18 of their last 21. The left-hander Max Fried is expected to take the mound Saturday. Fried is 7-2 in 14 games this season with an ERA of 2.77 and has given up 77 hits, 27 earned runs, and struck out 83 batters in 87.2 innings of work.
I like the Braves to take game-two of this series. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in the MLB, but this will be the best matchup for the Braves to win. Max Fried has been excellent in most of his starts this season and should be able to keep the Dodgers bats at bay. Mitch White will be making his return from Triple A ball, and I expect him to struggle a bit against this hot Braves offense. Backing Atlanta moneyline here. Atl 5-4 /By J.Hedrick
Antonio Senzatela (6.06 xERA, 4.33 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA) remains one of my favorite pitchers to bet against. Still, I’m uncertain that I can get there with Chris Archer (5.03 xERA, 4.96 xFIP, 4.91 SIERA), whose underlying indicators are equally concerning.
Among the 114 pitchers who have tossed 50+ innings in 2022, Archer ranks 108th and Senzatela ranks 11th in K-BB%. Furthermore, they rank 102nd and 114th respectively in CSW%.
Technically, I project , but I would have difficulty laying that much juice on Archer.
With strong winds blowing out to right field, I show By S.ZERILLO
Antonio Senzatela (6.06 xERA, 4.33 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA) remains one of my favorite pitchers to bet against. Still, I’m uncertain that I can get there with Chris Archer (5.03 xERA, 4.96 xFIP, 4.91 SIERA), whose underlying indicators are equally concerning.
Among the 114 pitchers who have tossed 50+ innings in 2022, Archer ranks 108th and Senzatela ranks 11th in K-BB%. Furthermore, they rank 102nd and 114th respectively in CSW%.
Technically, I project , but I would have difficulty laying that much juice on Archer.
With strong winds blowing out to right field, I show By S.ZERILLO
so much copy/paste -I am confused by all this Information? My Best Play for Saturday Phillies/Padres Over 7.5 -116 (Eflin/Snell) Pirates +159 Over 7 -117 BOL! Please zero in on information your telling us our Benefits? Thanks always read your post-wishing you a Great Year???
so much copy/paste -I am confused by all this Information? My Best Play for Saturday Phillies/Padres Over 7.5 -116 (Eflin/Snell) Pirates +159 Over 7 -117 BOL! Please zero in on information your telling us our Benefits? Thanks always read your post-wishing you a Great Year???
@jimbojpc
We are all entitled to our own opinions but I happen to appreciate what RLeith35 does. The info is provided in a central location that can be subscribed to...I can't imagine trying to find each piece of that info on my own accord. Supposedly it's possible but I wouldn't want to even try. I look at it as guidelines and thoughts on plays. Quick, digestible bits of info to aid in bets for the day...I appreciate the effort put into bringing that info here each day. Keep it up RLeith35 ;)
@jimbojpc
We are all entitled to our own opinions but I happen to appreciate what RLeith35 does. The info is provided in a central location that can be subscribed to...I can't imagine trying to find each piece of that info on my own accord. Supposedly it's possible but I wouldn't want to even try. I look at it as guidelines and thoughts on plays. Quick, digestible bits of info to aid in bets for the day...I appreciate the effort put into bringing that info here each day. Keep it up RLeith35 ;)
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