Tentative Plays until umpire behind plate confirmed:
T-Play #1: Rockies/Twins Over 9.0 1U
-combined they have produced over 62 games out of 140+ that produced an OVER 9.5 runs result
-almost 40% of Rockies OVERS in this situation occur on the road
-Minnesota likes to produce runs, especially at home and Marquez can get nervous with men on base which plays into the TWINS strength
-Bundy can be a pinata if not hitting the zone....umpire could make a difference in this case
T-PLAY #2
Oakland/KC UNDER 9.5
-umpire will make a difference which I won't confirm this till I know, or decide to take a gamble on my hunch after watching the line (will update both T-plays later to confirmed or not)
-heat and knocked down dry wind blowing in crossing from right field to home side spectators cancel each other out
-I can't believe Oakland has lost their last 6 games that Cole Irvin has pitched despite him pitching well lately and he is very good lifetime vs KC from a BA point of view
-why is KC favourite with Grienke a pinata in the first 2 months of the season? Well, someone knows something and the fact he has been off for 6 weeks and KC is a -135 to win with him on the mound has me thinking UNDER is the play rather than taking a side here in a 4-3 /5-4 type of game
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Confirmed Play:
Yanks/Astros Over 7.5 1U
-warm day
-Tichenor behind the plate with 11.9 runs per game average with a high walk rate....both teams punish you if you walk batters
-both pitchers like to nibble and challenge zone which favours hitters with this umpire
-if you look at Verlander's past and Severino, when they punch a 3 Run+ outing statistically, they almost always produce a similar outing the next time and I think the hitting abilities and umpire situation will enhance the possibility of one side scoring 5+ runs easily
-both teams focus well vs good pitchers and we have seen this in the series with 1 run ballgames and more than 7.5 runs in both games....they both like to compete vs good teams
Parlay: Jays -145 with Manoah the Bulldog on the mound vs Houser + TB with the much better pitching/hitting setup
-surprisingly, Brewers sputter at home unlike past years, they tend not rise to the occasion of good teams lately and remember, the Jays play in a much tougher division despite the fact that Manoah will likely steady a bat on his shoulder swinging at air the whole game, Houser will not be able to deal with the constant bat pressure the Jays lineup brings whereas, Manoah loves the challenge of any strong lineup
-there is roster history here as well with the Jays sending many players to the Brewer lineup in the past few seasons so I expect AL EAST will prevail here with the better pitcher and batting lineup after the Jays have had to run the gauntlet of a slew of good teams lately and held up well fighting to gain runs almost every game
-same situation almost for TB who need a shellacking for their strong hitter lineup since they have faced a lot of good pitchers lately
-this pays 2.50 @ 1U
BOL if tailing one of these Confirmed....will update or not the TENTATIVE plays above closer to game time
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.