Last week finished 6-2 and plus 14.6 stars (or units). Was a good week as every win covered by more than a td so the alt lines were good. Got burnt on the Duke line as it was 9 and I thought it might go to 10 and waited – of course it goes to 7.5 and sticks – frustrating. They didn’t deserve to cover anyway as Kansas was the right side. Unlucky on IU – gross end of game – that was the right play and I would play it again at 17. Others were all good including the team I have been on – Kansas St as they got the moneyline as well. That is the team I thought they would be going into the year. I have been behind Martinez all the way back to last season – unfairly criticized and neb was a dumpster fire. If he continues to play at a high level they can win the big 12.
On to this week – a few plays below with 1 write up – others will follow.
YTD: 20-9-1 plus 38.4 stars or units (the key is always the units not the record)
Summary of Picks so far
4* MD -7 (-115) – FD has this line
4* Virginia +2.5 – BR has this line
3.5* WV +10.5 – MGM has best line
3* Illinois +8.5
2* Okl St – Baylor Under 55.5
Couple thoughts on Futures
Draft Kings has Pitt at +1400 to win ACC – this is great value. If you look at Pitt’s schedule I really can’t see not at least getting to the Miami game to get to champ. Miami plays Clemson and Florida St and the way they look they could have a couple losses by then and that game might not matter. NC has no def and play at Wake and NC State. Pitt is by far the best team on that side. They get to champ they can beat anyone but even if you don’t think so you can hedge.
Back to Pitt – they are 1000 to 1 to win national champ in FD. This is pretty unbelievable if you think about it. They can’t lose again – very possible. Toughest game will be at Louisville. Miami will be tough as well. Both games they can win then comes the ACC title. They run table they should make it. Big 12 will not have anyone with 0 or 1 loss. Pac 12 might get Utah with 1 – could come down to that. Most likely both Bama & GA make it plus Big 10 champ. The idea is at those odds if they get in you can hedge. Pitt will not win the title – but imagine them making playoff and you bet 100 to win 100K – nice hedge opp – could even look at hedging in ACC title game. Pitt probably beats Tenn with a healthy Slovis – plus Patti banged up – I think that will help them if they run the table – committee will see that.
Last week finished 6-2 and plus 14.6 stars (or units). Was a good week as every win covered by more than a td so the alt lines were good. Got burnt on the Duke line as it was 9 and I thought it might go to 10 and waited – of course it goes to 7.5 and sticks – frustrating. They didn’t deserve to cover anyway as Kansas was the right side. Unlucky on IU – gross end of game – that was the right play and I would play it again at 17. Others were all good including the team I have been on – Kansas St as they got the moneyline as well. That is the team I thought they would be going into the year. I have been behind Martinez all the way back to last season – unfairly criticized and neb was a dumpster fire. If he continues to play at a high level they can win the big 12.
On to this week – a few plays below with 1 write up – others will follow.
YTD: 20-9-1 plus 38.4 stars or units (the key is always the units not the record)
Summary of Picks so far
4* MD -7 (-115) – FD has this line
4* Virginia +2.5 – BR has this line
3.5* WV +10.5 – MGM has best line
3* Illinois +8.5
2* Okl St – Baylor Under 55.5
Couple thoughts on Futures
Draft Kings has Pitt at +1400 to win ACC – this is great value. If you look at Pitt’s schedule I really can’t see not at least getting to the Miami game to get to champ. Miami plays Clemson and Florida St and the way they look they could have a couple losses by then and that game might not matter. NC has no def and play at Wake and NC State. Pitt is by far the best team on that side. They get to champ they can beat anyone but even if you don’t think so you can hedge.
Back to Pitt – they are 1000 to 1 to win national champ in FD. This is pretty unbelievable if you think about it. They can’t lose again – very possible. Toughest game will be at Louisville. Miami will be tough as well. Both games they can win then comes the ACC title. They run table they should make it. Big 12 will not have anyone with 0 or 1 loss. Pac 12 might get Utah with 1 – could come down to that. Most likely both Bama & GA make it plus Big 10 champ. The idea is at those odds if they get in you can hedge. Pitt will not win the title – but imagine them making playoff and you bet 100 to win 100K – nice hedge opp – could even look at hedging in ACC title game. Pitt probably beats Tenn with a healthy Slovis – plus Patti banged up – I think that will help them if they run the table – committee will see that.
4* Maryland -7 - I got some at -3 last night and it was 3.5 this morning- this was a 5 star play for sure but now at 7 I drop it some. Michigan State is heading for a free fall. This team was not near as good as their record last year – could easily have lost to Neb, IU, and Mich. They played Miami at the right time and got snow in the Penn St game which drastically helped them. Get to bowl – Pitt down to third string QB – they destroy Mich St if both at full strength. Now this year – no Walker and 3 starting off lineman gone. Think about how good Walker was – this was a team that never ran for more than 3.5 ypc the previous 3 years then shot up to 4.8 with Walker. They have averaged 1.86 the last 2 games. The defense is so bad its unbelievable – they have a couple starters out and probably lost another against Minn. They didn’t fix anything. They are this years IU – Mich St most likely will lose the next 5 games and Mel Tucker will see how drastically different he will be treated.
Maryland is one of the best passing teams in big ten. This is a terrible matchup. Last week they played right with a very good Mich team. Their def is improved – last 2 weeks they have faced very good offenses. One key to last game is they had only 1 penalty. They should light up Michigan State.
This is not an overreaction. I had this game circled before the year started and Mich St is off not 1 horrible performance but 2 – this indicates something is drastically wrong (which I believe it is). They will be lucky to win 4 games this year. The terps turn a corner in this one and show they are a good team this year
4* Maryland -7 - I got some at -3 last night and it was 3.5 this morning- this was a 5 star play for sure but now at 7 I drop it some. Michigan State is heading for a free fall. This team was not near as good as their record last year – could easily have lost to Neb, IU, and Mich. They played Miami at the right time and got snow in the Penn St game which drastically helped them. Get to bowl – Pitt down to third string QB – they destroy Mich St if both at full strength. Now this year – no Walker and 3 starting off lineman gone. Think about how good Walker was – this was a team that never ran for more than 3.5 ypc the previous 3 years then shot up to 4.8 with Walker. They have averaged 1.86 the last 2 games. The defense is so bad its unbelievable – they have a couple starters out and probably lost another against Minn. They didn’t fix anything. They are this years IU – Mich St most likely will lose the next 5 games and Mel Tucker will see how drastically different he will be treated.
Maryland is one of the best passing teams in big ten. This is a terrible matchup. Last week they played right with a very good Mich team. Their def is improved – last 2 weeks they have faced very good offenses. One key to last game is they had only 1 penalty. They should light up Michigan State.
This is not an overreaction. I had this game circled before the year started and Mich St is off not 1 horrible performance but 2 – this indicates something is drastically wrong (which I believe it is). They will be lucky to win 4 games this year. The terps turn a corner in this one and show they are a good team this year
Will put a hold on the MD pick - Taulia finished the game but is banged up. I didn’t think much of it since he finished game but could impact this week. With college they just don’t give injury info so won’t surprise me if he is questionable for next week. I had -6 so bought back at plus 7.5. I recommend waiting on this one - backup is a big drop off.
Will put a hold on the MD pick - Taulia finished the game but is banged up. I didn’t think much of it since he finished game but could impact this week. With college they just don’t give injury info so won’t surprise me if he is questionable for next week. I had -6 so bought back at plus 7.5. I recommend waiting on this one - backup is a big drop off.
Just one quick point to try and help everyone before the write up. If you are betting in the legal books like FD, BR, and BetMGM. If you place a bet then notice a line is better in another book. Look to cash out in the book you bet. Example - I bet the Baylor under at 55.5 in BetMGM - today it was 56.5 in Wynn. I cashed out my MGM bet then placed a bet in Wynn. Some books will allow this assuming the line hasn't moved yet in the book you originally bet. Just wanted to point that out in case any of you didn't think of this.
The Virginia def is much improved from last year as they brought in def coord Rudzinski from Air Force (AF always good on def). Against FBS teams they are only giving up 3.15 ypc rushing and just held Cuse to 75 yds. They have faced 2 of the best backs in the nation and held up pretty well (Illlinois got 198 against them on 45 carries). Pass def has been middle of the pack. They have the 3 best PFF overall def rating in ACC and top tacking team. They are first in ACC in sacks/game (12 in 3 games) and sixth in tfl/game. They also have forced 9 turnovers with is tied for first in ACC. They are very sound and will be the top def Duke has faced by far. I like Leonard at QB and think he is solid however he is still young and I think this defense can create some issues for him as he hasn’t faced a team than can apply any pressure.
There could be some weather in this game – most likely at least some rain. Even if this happens I think VA will be fine. They have ran the ball very well the last 2 weeks – Jones has run well and as a team they have run for over 5 ypc the past 2 weeks. Armstrong is also a powerful runner. I think they can own the line of scrimmage on both sides. Plus they have big receivers which will help. Duke didn’t all of a sudden turn in to a very good team – it will take time. Their win over NW not looking so great right now as NW is not good. Kansas should have beaten them by way more than 8. This is a big game for Virginia – they also had an extra day of prep – they should have won the game at Syr and now look to avoid an 0-2 conf start. I think Armstrong will be a lot better in this one and they will get it done.
Just one quick point to try and help everyone before the write up. If you are betting in the legal books like FD, BR, and BetMGM. If you place a bet then notice a line is better in another book. Look to cash out in the book you bet. Example - I bet the Baylor under at 55.5 in BetMGM - today it was 56.5 in Wynn. I cashed out my MGM bet then placed a bet in Wynn. Some books will allow this assuming the line hasn't moved yet in the book you originally bet. Just wanted to point that out in case any of you didn't think of this.
The Virginia def is much improved from last year as they brought in def coord Rudzinski from Air Force (AF always good on def). Against FBS teams they are only giving up 3.15 ypc rushing and just held Cuse to 75 yds. They have faced 2 of the best backs in the nation and held up pretty well (Illlinois got 198 against them on 45 carries). Pass def has been middle of the pack. They have the 3 best PFF overall def rating in ACC and top tacking team. They are first in ACC in sacks/game (12 in 3 games) and sixth in tfl/game. They also have forced 9 turnovers with is tied for first in ACC. They are very sound and will be the top def Duke has faced by far. I like Leonard at QB and think he is solid however he is still young and I think this defense can create some issues for him as he hasn’t faced a team than can apply any pressure.
There could be some weather in this game – most likely at least some rain. Even if this happens I think VA will be fine. They have ran the ball very well the last 2 weeks – Jones has run well and as a team they have run for over 5 ypc the past 2 weeks. Armstrong is also a powerful runner. I think they can own the line of scrimmage on both sides. Plus they have big receivers which will help. Duke didn’t all of a sudden turn in to a very good team – it will take time. Their win over NW not looking so great right now as NW is not good. Kansas should have beaten them by way more than 8. This is a big game for Virginia – they also had an extra day of prep – they should have won the game at Syr and now look to avoid an 0-2 conf start. I think Armstrong will be a lot better in this one and they will get it done.
3* Illinois +8.5 - Line has dropped so 8.5 isn’t out there since I posted. Would rather this game been played before Wisc-Ohio St because Ohio St will make almost everyone look bad. First – the bad for this one – Chryst is 16-7 ATS off a loss and last year in a similar spot where Wisc off a 38-17 loss went to Illinois and won 24-0 with a dominating performance (def just smothered Illinois). So why take Illinois – there are several key differences this year. Last year Wisc was suppose to be good and dominate on def coming into the year but just struggled some early mainly on off. This year I was not big on them coming into year– they lost 8 starters on def and their top 3 receiving leaders. Key guys lost on def – now Leonard is a great coordinator and they are always solid but were expected to take a little step back this year.
Last year was a horrible matchup for Illinois. Illinois played a lot of tight formations, relied heavy on run, and couldn’t pass. That is a disaster against Wisc. They literally couldn’t move the ball and were held under 100 total yds. Def was constantly on the field and wore down. A few key differences this year – first is change in coordinators – Lunney as off coord – they spread out more this year and are more balanced. Second – DeVito – he is a way better passer and together with the change in offensive philosophy they are way more balanced – throwing for 215 ypg against FBS teams. Running game is excellent – 224 ypg gainst FBS. Now running will be a challenge so the key is they can throw this year and will spread Wisc out.
On to def – they have been fantastic – third in big 10 at 265 ypg and only given up 32 pts in 4 games. They are third in overall PFF rating in big ten and are rated well in every category. The Wisconsin offense looked awful against Ohio St and struggled against Wash St. Mertz is just not very good if you make them pass. They obviously can run. The biggest question in this game is can Illinois hold up at line of scrimmage – they haven’t faced any off line near Wisc. One positive is both tackles were out for Wisc last week – Nelson had an illness so maybe he is back this week. Illinois has given up 85 ypg rushing against FBS – this week will be a different monster. They look very physical this year and I think they will hold up in this one.
No doubt that Wisc will come out focused and with energy after that thumping they received. It is one thing I don’t like about this spot. Wisc has starters banged up – 2 on off line and 2 in sec out last week. Illinois is pretty healthy – they get Woods back and also had 2 extra days of prep plus were off a bye before the game last Thur. They should be fresh. I really like this Illinois team and think if they can find a way to win this game they can compete for the West. I think their passing game will be the difference as their off will be able to do enough to hang in there. Remember they won at Penn St and at Minn last year. I think Wisc will pull it out but it wouldn’t surprise me if Illinois won.
3* Illinois +8.5 - Line has dropped so 8.5 isn’t out there since I posted. Would rather this game been played before Wisc-Ohio St because Ohio St will make almost everyone look bad. First – the bad for this one – Chryst is 16-7 ATS off a loss and last year in a similar spot where Wisc off a 38-17 loss went to Illinois and won 24-0 with a dominating performance (def just smothered Illinois). So why take Illinois – there are several key differences this year. Last year Wisc was suppose to be good and dominate on def coming into the year but just struggled some early mainly on off. This year I was not big on them coming into year– they lost 8 starters on def and their top 3 receiving leaders. Key guys lost on def – now Leonard is a great coordinator and they are always solid but were expected to take a little step back this year.
Last year was a horrible matchup for Illinois. Illinois played a lot of tight formations, relied heavy on run, and couldn’t pass. That is a disaster against Wisc. They literally couldn’t move the ball and were held under 100 total yds. Def was constantly on the field and wore down. A few key differences this year – first is change in coordinators – Lunney as off coord – they spread out more this year and are more balanced. Second – DeVito – he is a way better passer and together with the change in offensive philosophy they are way more balanced – throwing for 215 ypg against FBS teams. Running game is excellent – 224 ypg gainst FBS. Now running will be a challenge so the key is they can throw this year and will spread Wisc out.
On to def – they have been fantastic – third in big 10 at 265 ypg and only given up 32 pts in 4 games. They are third in overall PFF rating in big ten and are rated well in every category. The Wisconsin offense looked awful against Ohio St and struggled against Wash St. Mertz is just not very good if you make them pass. They obviously can run. The biggest question in this game is can Illinois hold up at line of scrimmage – they haven’t faced any off line near Wisc. One positive is both tackles were out for Wisc last week – Nelson had an illness so maybe he is back this week. Illinois has given up 85 ypg rushing against FBS – this week will be a different monster. They look very physical this year and I think they will hold up in this one.
No doubt that Wisc will come out focused and with energy after that thumping they received. It is one thing I don’t like about this spot. Wisc has starters banged up – 2 on off line and 2 in sec out last week. Illinois is pretty healthy – they get Woods back and also had 2 extra days of prep plus were off a bye before the game last Thur. They should be fresh. I really like this Illinois team and think if they can find a way to win this game they can compete for the West. I think their passing game will be the difference as their off will be able to do enough to hang in there. Remember they won at Penn St and at Minn last year. I think Wisc will pull it out but it wouldn’t surprise me if Illinois won.
I looked at it and will lay off. I get the logic with the under. I could see Illinois coming out passing and using a little tempo to try and open up the run. I would think the Wisc def plays a lot better this week so it probably goes under but I could see it right around the total - if you like it u should be able to get 43.5. Good luck
I looked at it and will lay off. I get the logic with the under. I could see Illinois coming out passing and using a little tempo to try and open up the run. I would think the Wisc def plays a lot better this week so it probably goes under but I could see it right around the total - if you like it u should be able to get 43.5. Good luck
2.5*Ohio St -26.5 (-115) - this line is in Caesars - some books don’t have it. It’s a big number but Ohio St is a machine on offense. Last year it was 45-6 at half – Ohio St could have tried to score with 1:51 left in FH but Day ran ball 3 times and ran out clock. Last year in 5 big ten games (Rutgers, MD, IU, Purdue, Mich St) Ohio St had 32 FH possessions – they scored 30 tds and 2 fgs – no punts or turnovers (not counting a possession where they run out clock at end of half) – this is not a misprint. Last 2 weeks – 12 possessions – 10 tds, 1 fg, 1 int. They made Wisc look like a MAC school. They are now in sync – they are better this year and have a defense that is flying around. Rutgers is awful on offense so it will be a struggle for them to score once. I figure 6-7 FH possessions – 5 tds should get this. Once they get up big they will call off the dogs in 2 half.
2.5*Ohio St -26.5 (-115) - this line is in Caesars - some books don’t have it. It’s a big number but Ohio St is a machine on offense. Last year it was 45-6 at half – Ohio St could have tried to score with 1:51 left in FH but Day ran ball 3 times and ran out clock. Last year in 5 big ten games (Rutgers, MD, IU, Purdue, Mich St) Ohio St had 32 FH possessions – they scored 30 tds and 2 fgs – no punts or turnovers (not counting a possession where they run out clock at end of half) – this is not a misprint. Last 2 weeks – 12 possessions – 10 tds, 1 fg, 1 int. They made Wisc look like a MAC school. They are now in sync – they are better this year and have a defense that is flying around. Rutgers is awful on offense so it will be a struggle for them to score once. I figure 6-7 FH possessions – 5 tds should get this. Once they get up big they will call off the dogs in 2 half.
2* Okl St-Baylor Under 56.5 – These two played twice last year and both were slugfests with the total points landing on 37 & 38. Baylor only gained 282 and 242 yds in the games so they struggled to move the ball on Okl St. Okl St only returns 4 on def and lost Knowles – last year they were great against the run (86 yds game vs FBS) this year 126 yds at 3.3 avg in 2 games against FBS. They return 8 of top 10 def lineman and are very fast and good upfront. They also had an extra week to prep for this game. Should matchup well against the Baylor run game. Def probably won’t be as good as last year but is still strong. Baylor is strong again on def and is second in conf at 328 yds/gm against FBS. They seem to matchup pretty well against Okl St as they are athletic on def – last year held them under 5 ypp in both games (3.78 ypp in champ). Being at home will also help. Both are second and third in Big 12 in sacks/gm and TFL/gm.
The only thing I don’t like about this game is Okl St will go fast on offense. On the other side – Baylor won’t. Last year Okl St ran 82 and 87 plays against Baylor so Baylor did a good job limiting big plays. I like Okl St off the bye and Baylor being at home – I think it will be a battle and both def will be solid. The total is high enough to play this under as I think the matchup favors it on both sides.
2* Okl St-Baylor Under 56.5 – These two played twice last year and both were slugfests with the total points landing on 37 & 38. Baylor only gained 282 and 242 yds in the games so they struggled to move the ball on Okl St. Okl St only returns 4 on def and lost Knowles – last year they were great against the run (86 yds game vs FBS) this year 126 yds at 3.3 avg in 2 games against FBS. They return 8 of top 10 def lineman and are very fast and good upfront. They also had an extra week to prep for this game. Should matchup well against the Baylor run game. Def probably won’t be as good as last year but is still strong. Baylor is strong again on def and is second in conf at 328 yds/gm against FBS. They seem to matchup pretty well against Okl St as they are athletic on def – last year held them under 5 ypp in both games (3.78 ypp in champ). Being at home will also help. Both are second and third in Big 12 in sacks/gm and TFL/gm.
The only thing I don’t like about this game is Okl St will go fast on offense. On the other side – Baylor won’t. Last year Okl St ran 82 and 87 plays against Baylor so Baylor did a good job limiting big plays. I like Okl St off the bye and Baylor being at home – I think it will be a battle and both def will be solid. The total is high enough to play this under as I think the matchup favors it on both sides.
3.5*WV +10.5 - I don’t think 10 is out there now – probably 9.5. WV is starting to play better and has a well balanced offense (184 ypg rushing, 260 passing against FBS). I think there is a big edge at QB in this one with Daniels. Their off line is solid and should hold their own against a good Texas front. I also like Harrell’s scheme to help out and Daniels is a smart QB so they should be able to handle pressure by Texas. The key thing for me in this game is Ewers and Worthy. Doesn’t look like Ewers will play as it was reported he was still dealing with pain this week– I doubt that Sarkisian takes a chance if that is the case. Even if he plays he probably won’t be 100%. Worthy didn’t play in the second half last week and Texas really struggled without him. He is their best receiver and deep threat – Tech was able to change up on def and Texas didn’t do much in the second half. Worthy didn’t practice early in week but has taken some reps – it’s a leg injury so usually with wideouts anything with their legs is an issue so even if he plays he probably won’t be 100%. His injury changes this whole game in my perspective.
The weakness of WV is the secondary – I think with injuries to both Ewers & Worthy this is big for this one. If both were healthy and playing I would probably look more toward the over in this one. Card is ok at QB and I do think he will have a good day as WV has one of lowest coverage ratings in big 12 (11 according to PFF). WV has a good def line so they should play well against a young Tex line. Texas wants to run more than pass (last 2 weeks 66 runs 53 passes) – Tex off line is ninth in big 12 in run block rating (48.4 – not good) – just shows how good Robinson is. WV allowing 103 yds/gm and 3.38 ypc rushing so that is their strength.
The Texas def has played 184 plays the last 2 games (100 last week). There is a lot of pressure on Texas for this one after the loss last week. They are 3-7 SU and ATS in conf under Sarkisian and there claim to fame with him is a morale victory against Bama. I don’t think he is that great of a coach and if they lose this one then things might get tough in Austin. Texas will come out with tremendous energy and will be fighting for their season in this one. I think WV with Daniels at QB will be able to battle them throughout and I see a tough, tight game and I think WV will have a chance to win.
3.5*WV +10.5 - I don’t think 10 is out there now – probably 9.5. WV is starting to play better and has a well balanced offense (184 ypg rushing, 260 passing against FBS). I think there is a big edge at QB in this one with Daniels. Their off line is solid and should hold their own against a good Texas front. I also like Harrell’s scheme to help out and Daniels is a smart QB so they should be able to handle pressure by Texas. The key thing for me in this game is Ewers and Worthy. Doesn’t look like Ewers will play as it was reported he was still dealing with pain this week– I doubt that Sarkisian takes a chance if that is the case. Even if he plays he probably won’t be 100%. Worthy didn’t play in the second half last week and Texas really struggled without him. He is their best receiver and deep threat – Tech was able to change up on def and Texas didn’t do much in the second half. Worthy didn’t practice early in week but has taken some reps – it’s a leg injury so usually with wideouts anything with their legs is an issue so even if he plays he probably won’t be 100%. His injury changes this whole game in my perspective.
The weakness of WV is the secondary – I think with injuries to both Ewers & Worthy this is big for this one. If both were healthy and playing I would probably look more toward the over in this one. Card is ok at QB and I do think he will have a good day as WV has one of lowest coverage ratings in big 12 (11 according to PFF). WV has a good def line so they should play well against a young Tex line. Texas wants to run more than pass (last 2 weeks 66 runs 53 passes) – Tex off line is ninth in big 12 in run block rating (48.4 – not good) – just shows how good Robinson is. WV allowing 103 yds/gm and 3.38 ypc rushing so that is their strength.
The Texas def has played 184 plays the last 2 games (100 last week). There is a lot of pressure on Texas for this one after the loss last week. They are 3-7 SU and ATS in conf under Sarkisian and there claim to fame with him is a morale victory against Bama. I don’t think he is that great of a coach and if they lose this one then things might get tough in Austin. Texas will come out with tremendous energy and will be fighting for their season in this one. I think WV with Daniels at QB will be able to battle them throughout and I see a tough, tight game and I think WV will have a chance to win.
Kansas St looked great on off last week. Their off line was terrific as was Martinez against a very good def. Tech has been solid on def as they are fourth in conf in ypg given up against FBS. I think last week should have gotten a monkey of the back of Martinez and I think he will be confident and play well moving forward.
Tough to play 4 straight tough games and play well. Tech is off to a good start but this game has the makings of a poor performance by them with a young turnover prone QB. Kansas St is eyeing a big 12 title and their crowd should be into this one to provide a boost. I think they control this game and get a good win.
Kansas St looked great on off last week. Their off line was terrific as was Martinez against a very good def. Tech has been solid on def as they are fourth in conf in ypg given up against FBS. I think last week should have gotten a monkey of the back of Martinez and I think he will be confident and play well moving forward.
Tough to play 4 straight tough games and play well. Tech is off to a good start but this game has the makings of a poor performance by them with a young turnover prone QB. Kansas St is eyeing a big 12 title and their crowd should be into this one to provide a boost. I think they control this game and get a good win.
2* Ga Tech – Pitt Under 49 – Will be raining all day in Pittsburgh and have some wind during the game. Tech has scored 20 pts in 3 games against FBS and now plays another excellent def. They also have the distraction of firing their coach. Add in the rain and it will be tough for them to score more than 7 pts. Pitt has been a little banged up and just coasted the last 2 weeks. I see them with a high % of runs and once they get up they will play it safe with the rain. Tech has played well defensively in 3 of their 4 games holding 3 of their opponents under 400 yds. I think they will hang in there in this game. Look for a sloppy field and a lot of run plays in this one.
2* Ga Tech – Pitt Under 49 – Will be raining all day in Pittsburgh and have some wind during the game. Tech has scored 20 pts in 3 games against FBS and now plays another excellent def. They also have the distraction of firing their coach. Add in the rain and it will be tough for them to score more than 7 pts. Pitt has been a little banged up and just coasted the last 2 weeks. I see them with a high % of runs and once they get up they will play it safe with the rain. Tech has played well defensively in 3 of their 4 games holding 3 of their opponents under 400 yds. I think they will hang in there in this game. Look for a sloppy field and a lot of run plays in this one.
Pulled MD – really liked this but at 7.5 and Taulia possibly not being 100% I wouldn’t star the game. Good luck to everyone – hopefully some of the info helps.
Pulled MD – really liked this but at 7.5 and Taulia possibly not being 100% I wouldn’t star the game. Good luck to everyone – hopefully some of the info helps.
Kansas St -7.5 - Nice thing about this game is that both teams are off huge upset wins so it isn’t a case of a letdown for Kansas St. They already had their letdown and have a veteran team so I think the letdown risk is more with Texas Tech. This will be the fourth straight tough game for Texas Tech. Tech is last in the big 12 in ypp at 4.78 against FBS. In there last 3 games they have 7 turnovers – K St has gained 6 against FBS teams and only turned it over once. The biggest thing for me is Donovan Smith – he played well last week but he has the makings of inconsistency. He has thrown 5 picks – he throws flat footed and has been horrible under pressure (QBR of 32). He will be facing a very good K St def who has the best cover rating in the big 12 (85.6). Playing Okl will help K St as they played with tempo so it allowed them to get some practice against tempo which Tech runs. Last week they played 9 in secondary – 1 of the deep td passes was against a freshman who hasn’t played much – another against a backup safety. Klieman said they played a lot of players cause of the heat. Their def in second half was a lot better. I don’t see Smith putting together back to back good games – he is now on the road against a very good def and I think he will make a couple mistakes in this one.
Kansas St looked great on off last week. Their off line was terrific as was Martinez against a very good def. Tech has been solid on def as they are fourth in conf in ypg given up against FBS. I think last week should have gotten a monkey of the back of Martinez and I think he will be confident and play well moving forward.
Tough to play 4 straight tough games and play well. Tech is off to a good start but this game has the makings of a poor performance by them with a young turnover prone QB. Kansas St is eyeing a big 12 title and their crowd should be into this one to provide a boost. I think they control this game and get a good win.
Kansas St -7.5 - Nice thing about this game is that both teams are off huge upset wins so it isn’t a case of a letdown for Kansas St. They already had their letdown and have a veteran team so I think the letdown risk is more with Texas Tech. This will be the fourth straight tough game for Texas Tech. Tech is last in the big 12 in ypp at 4.78 against FBS. In there last 3 games they have 7 turnovers – K St has gained 6 against FBS teams and only turned it over once. The biggest thing for me is Donovan Smith – he played well last week but he has the makings of inconsistency. He has thrown 5 picks – he throws flat footed and has been horrible under pressure (QBR of 32). He will be facing a very good K St def who has the best cover rating in the big 12 (85.6). Playing Okl will help K St as they played with tempo so it allowed them to get some practice against tempo which Tech runs. Last week they played 9 in secondary – 1 of the deep td passes was against a freshman who hasn’t played much – another against a backup safety. Klieman said they played a lot of players cause of the heat. Their def in second half was a lot better. I don’t see Smith putting together back to back good games – he is now on the road against a very good def and I think he will make a couple mistakes in this one.
Kansas St looked great on off last week. Their off line was terrific as was Martinez against a very good def. Tech has been solid on def as they are fourth in conf in ypg given up against FBS. I think last week should have gotten a monkey of the back of Martinez and I think he will be confident and play well moving forward.
Tough to play 4 straight tough games and play well. Tech is off to a good start but this game has the makings of a poor performance by them with a young turnover prone QB. Kansas St is eyeing a big 12 title and their crowd should be into this one to provide a boost. I think they control this game and get a good win.
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