Who are your long shot and semi-long shot sleepers for next year to win their conference?
Big 10:
Winner - OSU
Longshot - Any other team. Penn ST would prob be my best pick.
SEC:
Winner - Bama
Longshot - LSU, has the talent to win every year. They are always worth a sprinkle IMO.
Big 10:
Winner - OSU
Longshot - Any other team. Penn ST would prob be my best pick.
SEC:
Winner - Bama
Longshot - LSU, has the talent to win every year. They are always worth a sprinkle IMO.
Yeah Bama gunna be tough and seemed, was actually a down year .. for them I thought being plagued w injuries at RB / WR and OL even had some, defense wasn't as good as expected but they really saved them on a few games .. also didn't have their usual killer KR or PR, such an underrated weapon to have .... had the loss to A&M but also just eek'd out wins vs LSU and Auburn .. Florida comeback was a 2xp away from tying it up .. Ole Miss wasn't gunna win but that coulda been much closer since they rolled snake eyes on 4th down a couple times made the final score much different .. Arkansas was beat but even they made a comeback .. so many games that were legit in the balance and a few others bama unable to put others in their usual 2nd half sleeper hold .. I'd say if they struggled in any way breaking in Bryce Young last year then things woulda been alot different maybe one of saban's worst seasons .. instead they go onto beat UGA in the champ game and nearly again in the Natty lol ..
bama just unreal like that .. Coaching and never ending depth chart .. the only concern at least for now is at WR but that's been Bama's bread and butter the last few years so epically good and deep and even lucky I mean talk about hitting the lottery landing Jamison from the portal and Metchie developed into a great one too, both off to the pros .. saw a way diff team when both were gone .. and that kid Hall was clearly next in line you could tell he was on his way in LY's spring game but he's in the portal now .. I'm not all up to date on what else they got but there's just only so many first round WR's in the world ..
Unsure if Hall is considering UGA but if he goes there I think its a given I'll have UGA as the fav for the natty next year .. so much room for that offense to grow and should get there w alot of their WR's being young and not healthy .. totally lucked out finding that Bowers kid, unreal find since Gilbert lost his mind.. sounds like AG is getting things right and man if that group can come together this year it might be one of the best in history, won't care whose throwing the ball .. def won't care if its the guy they won the Natty with last year but even that's an area that can get explosively better .. play calling can open things to a dynamic pass game too ... just so many ways that offense can turn unreal so you add a sure thing like Hall and think its a done deal, no team will have an answer for that attack ..
Yeah Bama gunna be tough and seemed, was actually a down year .. for them I thought being plagued w injuries at RB / WR and OL even had some, defense wasn't as good as expected but they really saved them on a few games .. also didn't have their usual killer KR or PR, such an underrated weapon to have .... had the loss to A&M but also just eek'd out wins vs LSU and Auburn .. Florida comeback was a 2xp away from tying it up .. Ole Miss wasn't gunna win but that coulda been much closer since they rolled snake eyes on 4th down a couple times made the final score much different .. Arkansas was beat but even they made a comeback .. so many games that were legit in the balance and a few others bama unable to put others in their usual 2nd half sleeper hold .. I'd say if they struggled in any way breaking in Bryce Young last year then things woulda been alot different maybe one of saban's worst seasons .. instead they go onto beat UGA in the champ game and nearly again in the Natty lol ..
bama just unreal like that .. Coaching and never ending depth chart .. the only concern at least for now is at WR but that's been Bama's bread and butter the last few years so epically good and deep and even lucky I mean talk about hitting the lottery landing Jamison from the portal and Metchie developed into a great one too, both off to the pros .. saw a way diff team when both were gone .. and that kid Hall was clearly next in line you could tell he was on his way in LY's spring game but he's in the portal now .. I'm not all up to date on what else they got but there's just only so many first round WR's in the world ..
Unsure if Hall is considering UGA but if he goes there I think its a given I'll have UGA as the fav for the natty next year .. so much room for that offense to grow and should get there w alot of their WR's being young and not healthy .. totally lucked out finding that Bowers kid, unreal find since Gilbert lost his mind.. sounds like AG is getting things right and man if that group can come together this year it might be one of the best in history, won't care whose throwing the ball .. def won't care if its the guy they won the Natty with last year but even that's an area that can get explosively better .. play calling can open things to a dynamic pass game too ... just so many ways that offense can turn unreal so you add a sure thing like Hall and think its a done deal, no team will have an answer for that attack ..
^ obvi those werent sleepers lol so now I'll get back on topic ..
Formula is there at Florida .. new coach, new QB, new attitude .. think AR-15 could be one of those CAM type talents .. obvi said what I think about UGA above so no sure thing even if he is but he looks like a QB that can move the whole team himself .. we'll see .. We know Napier loves the run game too and UF had a ton of 5 star guys who im sure were all so happy to see him come over, could be a real deadly offense .. great shot to impress in year 1 ..
NC State .. watch out for them I think Wolfpack are gunna ratchet up another notch this year .. Clem losing those coordinators is a huge loss and defense will be great but if they're not elite like usual and still finding ways to struggle on offense .. health was also a huge prob for Clem LY need to not have those issues again .. also NC St has to travel to Clem which will be a very difficult win .. either way think Wolfpack continue on their great journey again this year ..
Mountain West seems maybe up for grabs .. Boise is still top of the heap but the slide they're on is real and we saw the most unlikely of teams win what I thought was a pretty strong MW last year .. gotta like Fresno St bringing back Haener although I really wanted to see him go to Wash w the coach DeBoer those two were so good together .. wouldn't say UNLV is conference material yet but I think we see a big move outta them this year .. def hoping things look good enough to bet them early on this year .. Hawaii and Nevada might plummet into oblivion ..
Not going out on a limb picking Utah ... I was last year tho lol .. gunna be an unreal rush attack, maybe best offense ever for the coach .. Just gotta hope its not the one year the defense falls apart lol .. Wouldn't count out a MAJOR Washington turnaround tho, DeBoer as OC took E.Michigan from worst team in CFB to breaking their 30 year bowl drought in 3 years .. one year turnaround at Fresno they go from 0 FBS wins to nearly a conf champ his first year and kept rolling the next year, then they tanked after he left .. took Indy in '19 from their usual one or 2 conf wins to 5, made the bowl almost beat Tenn .. they kept it going after he left in '20 but offense down like 10 points / game def struggled and then went offense first to the bottom of the ocean last year .. Coach had another unreal turnaround for Fresno, developed Haener in '20 but went off like a rocket again last year .. DeBoer's teams are 46-21 ATS the last 6 years he's a guy we can put our money on for sure .. Wash ripe for a huge turnaround and Oregon losing their coach and some good players def ripe for a stunner esp in the North .. Oregon State maybe not win the conf but they could be a real fun ride again if they can improve on a few things .. also wouldn't count out Wash State, tough deal LY with coaches leaving but had a legit DC move into the HC spot and brought in some pretty good air raid coaches for the O. They pulled i think a LEGIT gamer qb out of the portal from incarnate word and kid is like and FCS Lamar Jackson, think its very possible the coogs offense turns around right away w that guy ..
^ obvi those werent sleepers lol so now I'll get back on topic ..
Formula is there at Florida .. new coach, new QB, new attitude .. think AR-15 could be one of those CAM type talents .. obvi said what I think about UGA above so no sure thing even if he is but he looks like a QB that can move the whole team himself .. we'll see .. We know Napier loves the run game too and UF had a ton of 5 star guys who im sure were all so happy to see him come over, could be a real deadly offense .. great shot to impress in year 1 ..
NC State .. watch out for them I think Wolfpack are gunna ratchet up another notch this year .. Clem losing those coordinators is a huge loss and defense will be great but if they're not elite like usual and still finding ways to struggle on offense .. health was also a huge prob for Clem LY need to not have those issues again .. also NC St has to travel to Clem which will be a very difficult win .. either way think Wolfpack continue on their great journey again this year ..
Mountain West seems maybe up for grabs .. Boise is still top of the heap but the slide they're on is real and we saw the most unlikely of teams win what I thought was a pretty strong MW last year .. gotta like Fresno St bringing back Haener although I really wanted to see him go to Wash w the coach DeBoer those two were so good together .. wouldn't say UNLV is conference material yet but I think we see a big move outta them this year .. def hoping things look good enough to bet them early on this year .. Hawaii and Nevada might plummet into oblivion ..
Not going out on a limb picking Utah ... I was last year tho lol .. gunna be an unreal rush attack, maybe best offense ever for the coach .. Just gotta hope its not the one year the defense falls apart lol .. Wouldn't count out a MAJOR Washington turnaround tho, DeBoer as OC took E.Michigan from worst team in CFB to breaking their 30 year bowl drought in 3 years .. one year turnaround at Fresno they go from 0 FBS wins to nearly a conf champ his first year and kept rolling the next year, then they tanked after he left .. took Indy in '19 from their usual one or 2 conf wins to 5, made the bowl almost beat Tenn .. they kept it going after he left in '20 but offense down like 10 points / game def struggled and then went offense first to the bottom of the ocean last year .. Coach had another unreal turnaround for Fresno, developed Haener in '20 but went off like a rocket again last year .. DeBoer's teams are 46-21 ATS the last 6 years he's a guy we can put our money on for sure .. Wash ripe for a huge turnaround and Oregon losing their coach and some good players def ripe for a stunner esp in the North .. Oregon State maybe not win the conf but they could be a real fun ride again if they can improve on a few things .. also wouldn't count out Wash State, tough deal LY with coaches leaving but had a legit DC move into the HC spot and brought in some pretty good air raid coaches for the O. They pulled i think a LEGIT gamer qb out of the portal from incarnate word and kid is like and FCS Lamar Jackson, think its very possible the coogs offense turns around right away w that guy ..
Couple more teams / conferences to talk about at this early stage ..
Ohio State in B10, don't see any up and comer competing .. Best QB / Best WR / Best RB all sophs? ..got the new DC and no reason they don't turn the D around with what they're working with .. Mich gunna be tough to repeat if they don't get a real pass game going and they were faaar away from one last year .. stars will have to align perfectly for Penn State to jump into the hunt .. Wisco always decent odds to make the champ game so if were getting decent champ odds like 12-1 then yeah could take a bet on them but otherwise don't see much value in the B1G this year .. maybe take NU to win their division if the price is right, coach fitz always finds a way to rebound but losing their great DC a year ago has me wondering if they can bounce back quickly, they'll also need a really big change on O .. Minny is getting thier OC back from '19 so possible they could be rowing the boat again w a shot for the division ..
Can't say enough about the turnaround Old Dom coach did last year after skipping '20 and then make a bowl, shuda been coach of the year .. gunna be realllly tough this year, schedule is a SUPERBEAST .. not gunna drop big bucks on a conf or div but def a team if they keep going forward could be legit value, maybe go like 2-10 SU and just keep racking up ATS wins under the radar .. App, JMU, Marshall, Coastal, Liberty, UVA, ECU, VT .. woof .. Not sure about JMU but that's alot of teams I think might be at least somewhat overvalued next year .. wouldn't even really shock me if ODU pulled a stunner on VT in the opener, think Hokies could def continue their awful slide .. maybe they land in oblivion this year, we'll see ..
Memphis w Gunnell injured pre-ssn last year was a huge loss and they were also rebuilding .. they got the guys to be competitive again and should sling shot if Gunnell is as decent as I think he might be .. have to check the portal too if they're keeping things together since been a tough couple years since the coach left .. but yeah wouldn't surprise me if Memp stormed back into the AAC convo w Cincy no doubt putting everything into last year .. bearcats unreal coup keeping their coach around, even w a new big contract he'll have his choice of any HC opening for quite a while ..
Texas Tech .. i don't know if new HC McGuire was the right guy or not .. never even been a cfb HC or coordinator so he must know how to rock an interview lol .. but he was part of the crew that brought baylor's D back .. def like they got Tim Deruyter DC from oregon and Zach Kittley from W.Kentucky .. woah nellie it could be a legit turnaround .. gotta see what they're working with on offense W.KY struck gold bringing over Kittly with Zappe and the WR's from Hou Baptist but that's not just a plug and play formula Zappe was a perfect fit .. WKY went from like maybe worst team in FBS to nearly a conf champ game so the formula at least works at some level ... regardless its high risk super high % throws, going on 4th, total boom or bust offense and seems like Kittley is the only offensive guy there so there is something we can count on one way or another THERE WILL BE POINTS ..
Kansas finally got a real coach with Leipold, good for them ... my money is on them staying the course and moving in the right direction .. did the huge turnaround in div 2 to win championships there and goes to buffalo starts by losing to albany and tough year 1 but conf contender ever since .. unfortunate for them he never did get one in the MAC ... we saw a great start for the jayhawks last year Liepold is another coach we can count on the progress, his ATS win % is off the charts ... tough to call them a conference threat but keep em in mind after UT / Oklahoma jet out .. should note though they beat Texas and nearly beat OU though lol .. yeah def moving in the right direction in Lawrence ..
Couple more teams / conferences to talk about at this early stage ..
Ohio State in B10, don't see any up and comer competing .. Best QB / Best WR / Best RB all sophs? ..got the new DC and no reason they don't turn the D around with what they're working with .. Mich gunna be tough to repeat if they don't get a real pass game going and they were faaar away from one last year .. stars will have to align perfectly for Penn State to jump into the hunt .. Wisco always decent odds to make the champ game so if were getting decent champ odds like 12-1 then yeah could take a bet on them but otherwise don't see much value in the B1G this year .. maybe take NU to win their division if the price is right, coach fitz always finds a way to rebound but losing their great DC a year ago has me wondering if they can bounce back quickly, they'll also need a really big change on O .. Minny is getting thier OC back from '19 so possible they could be rowing the boat again w a shot for the division ..
Can't say enough about the turnaround Old Dom coach did last year after skipping '20 and then make a bowl, shuda been coach of the year .. gunna be realllly tough this year, schedule is a SUPERBEAST .. not gunna drop big bucks on a conf or div but def a team if they keep going forward could be legit value, maybe go like 2-10 SU and just keep racking up ATS wins under the radar .. App, JMU, Marshall, Coastal, Liberty, UVA, ECU, VT .. woof .. Not sure about JMU but that's alot of teams I think might be at least somewhat overvalued next year .. wouldn't even really shock me if ODU pulled a stunner on VT in the opener, think Hokies could def continue their awful slide .. maybe they land in oblivion this year, we'll see ..
Memphis w Gunnell injured pre-ssn last year was a huge loss and they were also rebuilding .. they got the guys to be competitive again and should sling shot if Gunnell is as decent as I think he might be .. have to check the portal too if they're keeping things together since been a tough couple years since the coach left .. but yeah wouldn't surprise me if Memp stormed back into the AAC convo w Cincy no doubt putting everything into last year .. bearcats unreal coup keeping their coach around, even w a new big contract he'll have his choice of any HC opening for quite a while ..
Texas Tech .. i don't know if new HC McGuire was the right guy or not .. never even been a cfb HC or coordinator so he must know how to rock an interview lol .. but he was part of the crew that brought baylor's D back .. def like they got Tim Deruyter DC from oregon and Zach Kittley from W.Kentucky .. woah nellie it could be a legit turnaround .. gotta see what they're working with on offense W.KY struck gold bringing over Kittly with Zappe and the WR's from Hou Baptist but that's not just a plug and play formula Zappe was a perfect fit .. WKY went from like maybe worst team in FBS to nearly a conf champ game so the formula at least works at some level ... regardless its high risk super high % throws, going on 4th, total boom or bust offense and seems like Kittley is the only offensive guy there so there is something we can count on one way or another THERE WILL BE POINTS ..
Kansas finally got a real coach with Leipold, good for them ... my money is on them staying the course and moving in the right direction .. did the huge turnaround in div 2 to win championships there and goes to buffalo starts by losing to albany and tough year 1 but conf contender ever since .. unfortunate for them he never did get one in the MAC ... we saw a great start for the jayhawks last year Liepold is another coach we can count on the progress, his ATS win % is off the charts ... tough to call them a conference threat but keep em in mind after UT / Oklahoma jet out .. should note though they beat Texas and nearly beat OU though lol .. yeah def moving in the right direction in Lawrence ..
@UNIMAN
Ha yeah .. My fleeting thoughts have been building up .. needed some release lol .. im not even up to date on what happened in spring ball either just spitballin ..
Hows Mich lookin? .. Portal so flush this year w 4 and 5 star QB's and all kinda other goodies .. was thinking one of those QB's might take a stab there, but only seein departures for them .. they excited about some prospects or same QB's dueling again this year? ..
@UNIMAN
Ha yeah .. My fleeting thoughts have been building up .. needed some release lol .. im not even up to date on what happened in spring ball either just spitballin ..
Hows Mich lookin? .. Portal so flush this year w 4 and 5 star QB's and all kinda other goodies .. was thinking one of those QB's might take a stab there, but only seein departures for them .. they excited about some prospects or same QB's dueling again this year? ..
McNamara back for the starting job, JJ McCarty rehabbing a shoulder injury will end up backup again IMO. Michigan got a nice transfer in Olu Oluwatimi at center. WR Ronnie Bell rehabbing acl, will be critical how well he returns.
What I see now is another year of a run happy team. Offense a little better with defense a step back. New DC Jesse Minter from the Ravens like McDonald was last year so not a drastic D change. A bunch has graduated from the 2021 defense!
Good news is non- conf schedule is very soft, Colorado St, Hawaii, and UConn.
Just get the feeling the game plan is run the ball, game management by McNamara, control the clock mentaility. This will work in non- conf cream puff games. But as soon as an explosive offensive team jumps on the Wolv. D the offense has to keep up. WR room looks good, especially if Bell returns to form. McNamara has to be able to go vertical with the passing game.
Seeing a 10-2 at best season, 8-4 worse case.
McNamara back for the starting job, JJ McCarty rehabbing a shoulder injury will end up backup again IMO. Michigan got a nice transfer in Olu Oluwatimi at center. WR Ronnie Bell rehabbing acl, will be critical how well he returns.
What I see now is another year of a run happy team. Offense a little better with defense a step back. New DC Jesse Minter from the Ravens like McDonald was last year so not a drastic D change. A bunch has graduated from the 2021 defense!
Good news is non- conf schedule is very soft, Colorado St, Hawaii, and UConn.
Just get the feeling the game plan is run the ball, game management by McNamara, control the clock mentaility. This will work in non- conf cream puff games. But as soon as an explosive offensive team jumps on the Wolv. D the offense has to keep up. WR room looks good, especially if Bell returns to form. McNamara has to be able to go vertical with the passing game.
Seeing a 10-2 at best season, 8-4 worse case.
@UNIMAN
Happy Easter buddy .. I got a gander at the spring game Corum and the seemingly new #2 RB looked good .. think the concern is harbaugh not really been known for his coordinator hires and got a couple new ones and I didn't get the warm and fuzzies about the pass game at all maybe mccarthy and bell in the lineup can change that, think they really need the run game to not get the hiccups or it could be some trouble .. tougher to tell w the D i know they gotta replace alot of guys and some real good ones ..
But yer right a real gem of a schedule w just the 4 roadies and not much in the way of trap spots either, @Iowa then @Indy seems like potential trouble but nice bye week between home and home w PSU/MSU .. might need some good luck but another showdown w the bucks w playoffs on the line doesn't look impossible ..
Gambling-wise tho I think it might be a time to hold your wallet, I count 11-2 ATS during their magic season LY and just no way books are gunna let that Michigan money get the best of them without a fight .. we can count on Harbaugh will knock the teeth out of a couple of those small non-cons at home to start the year and could give us a nice set up to play against once conf gets going ... we'll see...
@UNIMAN
Happy Easter buddy .. I got a gander at the spring game Corum and the seemingly new #2 RB looked good .. think the concern is harbaugh not really been known for his coordinator hires and got a couple new ones and I didn't get the warm and fuzzies about the pass game at all maybe mccarthy and bell in the lineup can change that, think they really need the run game to not get the hiccups or it could be some trouble .. tougher to tell w the D i know they gotta replace alot of guys and some real good ones ..
But yer right a real gem of a schedule w just the 4 roadies and not much in the way of trap spots either, @Iowa then @Indy seems like potential trouble but nice bye week between home and home w PSU/MSU .. might need some good luck but another showdown w the bucks w playoffs on the line doesn't look impossible ..
Gambling-wise tho I think it might be a time to hold your wallet, I count 11-2 ATS during their magic season LY and just no way books are gunna let that Michigan money get the best of them without a fight .. we can count on Harbaugh will knock the teeth out of a couple of those small non-cons at home to start the year and could give us a nice set up to play against once conf gets going ... we'll see...
Happy Easter to you too.
I missed the spring game.
Saw Michigan St couldn't field a healthy O-line in their spring game. Nebraska D won their spring game as offense made too many turnovers, that looked familiar.
Wolverine D lost so much talent I don't see the run game winning tough games.
Happy Easter to you too.
I missed the spring game.
Saw Michigan St couldn't field a healthy O-line in their spring game. Nebraska D won their spring game as offense made too many turnovers, that looked familiar.
Wolverine D lost so much talent I don't see the run game winning tough games.
@UNIMAN
JJ will take over at some point this year but both guys will play bc that’s just how Harbaugh is. It’s pretty clear JJ has that ability to be a special player that can bring the team to the next level. Michigan offense is stacked. OL is veteran and very good. WR/TE is loaded. Lose Haskins which is a very underrated loss, he was a machine, but this will give Donovan Edwards more time. He’s going to be a superstar. Great vision and explosiveness and not to mention a huge threat in the pass game, you can line him up anywhere Kamara style.
Obviously the questions is defense, but there’s quite a bit of talent and Michigan has the benefit of the easiest schedule they’ve played in years allowing guys to develop as the season progresses. Very real chance they go to Cbus 11-0. Certainly some questions though losing Hutch, Ojabo and hill.
Are there win totals out yet? I’m hoping and praying for an 8.5 or 9 on MSU. That under might be the biggest bet I ever make. Guessing that way too early preseason ranking of 8 will help my chances of a 9!!
@UNIMAN
JJ will take over at some point this year but both guys will play bc that’s just how Harbaugh is. It’s pretty clear JJ has that ability to be a special player that can bring the team to the next level. Michigan offense is stacked. OL is veteran and very good. WR/TE is loaded. Lose Haskins which is a very underrated loss, he was a machine, but this will give Donovan Edwards more time. He’s going to be a superstar. Great vision and explosiveness and not to mention a huge threat in the pass game, you can line him up anywhere Kamara style.
Obviously the questions is defense, but there’s quite a bit of talent and Michigan has the benefit of the easiest schedule they’ve played in years allowing guys to develop as the season progresses. Very real chance they go to Cbus 11-0. Certainly some questions though losing Hutch, Ojabo and hill.
Are there win totals out yet? I’m hoping and praying for an 8.5 or 9 on MSU. That under might be the biggest bet I ever make. Guessing that way too early preseason ranking of 8 will help my chances of a 9!!
No win totals for Big10 yet, see WynnBET has totals for SEC East only right now.
Michigan defense the real question mark this year, a lot of changeover! Offense has to roll.
Seeing MSU's ceiling at 8 games, tops.
No win totals for Big10 yet, see WynnBET has totals for SEC East only right now.
Michigan defense the real question mark this year, a lot of changeover! Offense has to roll.
Seeing MSU's ceiling at 8 games, tops.
@HockeyNight11
Yeah Hock I had alot of fun w my RSW plays LY hope to find a few juicy ones again ... def got MSU on the radar could make the case that the cookie crumbled their way 3 or maybe 4 times last year and good chance it doesn't happen again without another big power ratings jump esp on D .. Mel could conceivably do that but building up a D ain't that easy and will need that offense to not just stay strong but consistently strong all year .. Love to see that RSW way up there too but think books are seeing what we're seeing and know where the money is gunna come pouring in fast if they put a big number out ..
Think a good starting place to negotiate an MSU RSW would be around 6.75 just looking at their schedule and guessing at some spreads (probabilities) and adding it up .. Great exercise to keep us grounded in reality .. my schedule looks like this:
Strong fav 85%+ prob or ~14pts or more favs: Akr, W.Mich, Rut ..
Moderate fav 70% ~TD fav: @Ill, Indy ...
Slight fav 60% ~3pts Minn, @MD ..
Slight dog ~3pts @Wash ..
Moderate dog ~7pts Wisc, @Penn, ..
Stronger dog ~10-14pts @Mich, OSU ..
The thing to like is Sparty does have quite a few teams on the schedule that fell wayy below expectations LY or just kinda met their bad expectations .. Rut, ILL, Indy, MD, Wash .. Think its possible one of these dummy books rushes out their RSW numbers and puts out like a 7.5 if they look at last year and assume those teams won't improve at all but it wouldn't surprise me if @MD, @Wash and maybe even Indy were all competitive games and maybe one or two actually the better team this year .... I'd say 7.5 is a good target number to look for, not a lock by any means but think a decent +1 in game value w good chance the various regression wheels work in our favor .. I'd also just kinda rest easy knowing that if Sparty didn't sneak in a decent upset they'd have to run the table on every game they could conceivably be pre-ssn favorites in (including Minny) to win 8 games ... and no way Penn State and Mich will pull any punches this year but let's say they did beat Wisco I still wouldn't hate my chances for them to drop 2 of the supposed 8 other likely wins they'd need ..
@HockeyNight11
Yeah Hock I had alot of fun w my RSW plays LY hope to find a few juicy ones again ... def got MSU on the radar could make the case that the cookie crumbled their way 3 or maybe 4 times last year and good chance it doesn't happen again without another big power ratings jump esp on D .. Mel could conceivably do that but building up a D ain't that easy and will need that offense to not just stay strong but consistently strong all year .. Love to see that RSW way up there too but think books are seeing what we're seeing and know where the money is gunna come pouring in fast if they put a big number out ..
Think a good starting place to negotiate an MSU RSW would be around 6.75 just looking at their schedule and guessing at some spreads (probabilities) and adding it up .. Great exercise to keep us grounded in reality .. my schedule looks like this:
Strong fav 85%+ prob or ~14pts or more favs: Akr, W.Mich, Rut ..
Moderate fav 70% ~TD fav: @Ill, Indy ...
Slight fav 60% ~3pts Minn, @MD ..
Slight dog ~3pts @Wash ..
Moderate dog ~7pts Wisc, @Penn, ..
Stronger dog ~10-14pts @Mich, OSU ..
The thing to like is Sparty does have quite a few teams on the schedule that fell wayy below expectations LY or just kinda met their bad expectations .. Rut, ILL, Indy, MD, Wash .. Think its possible one of these dummy books rushes out their RSW numbers and puts out like a 7.5 if they look at last year and assume those teams won't improve at all but it wouldn't surprise me if @MD, @Wash and maybe even Indy were all competitive games and maybe one or two actually the better team this year .... I'd say 7.5 is a good target number to look for, not a lock by any means but think a decent +1 in game value w good chance the various regression wheels work in our favor .. I'd also just kinda rest easy knowing that if Sparty didn't sneak in a decent upset they'd have to run the table on every game they could conceivably be pre-ssn favorites in (including Minny) to win 8 games ... and no way Penn State and Mich will pull any punches this year but let's say they did beat Wisco I still wouldn't hate my chances for them to drop 2 of the supposed 8 other likely wins they'd need ..
@UNIMAN
WynnBET were the one's who rushed their totals out last year along with draftkings if you remember that pre-ssn convo .. looks like all SEC's are up, here's how they opened .. Says "min 12 games" so unsure if that means they include a champ game if applicable but that's usually not the case .. seeing SEC RSW's at Caesars/WH also ..
Alabama: 11.5 wins (Over +200/Under -250
Texas A&M: 9.0 wins (Over -125/Under +105)
Ole Miss: 8.0 wins (-110 both sides)
Arkansas: 6.5 wins (Over +120/Under -140)
Mississippi State: 6.5 wins (-110 both sides)
LSU: 6.0 wins (Over -125/Under +105)
Auburn: 5.0 wins (Over -120/Under +100)
Georgia: 11.5 wins (Over +200/Under -250)
Tennessee: 8.5 wins (Over -105/Under -115)
Kentucky: 8 wins (Over -110/Under -110)
Florida: 7 wins (Over -110/Under 110)
South Carolina: 6 wins (Over -150/Under +130)
Missouri: 5 wins (Over +100/Under -120)
Vanderbilt: 1.5 wins (Over -170/Under +150)
@UNIMAN
WynnBET were the one's who rushed their totals out last year along with draftkings if you remember that pre-ssn convo .. looks like all SEC's are up, here's how they opened .. Says "min 12 games" so unsure if that means they include a champ game if applicable but that's usually not the case .. seeing SEC RSW's at Caesars/WH also ..
Alabama: 11.5 wins (Over +200/Under -250
Texas A&M: 9.0 wins (Over -125/Under +105)
Ole Miss: 8.0 wins (-110 both sides)
Arkansas: 6.5 wins (Over +120/Under -140)
Mississippi State: 6.5 wins (-110 both sides)
LSU: 6.0 wins (Over -125/Under +105)
Auburn: 5.0 wins (Over -120/Under +100)
Georgia: 11.5 wins (Over +200/Under -250)
Tennessee: 8.5 wins (Over -105/Under -115)
Kentucky: 8 wins (Over -110/Under -110)
Florida: 7 wins (Over -110/Under 110)
South Carolina: 6 wins (Over -150/Under +130)
Missouri: 5 wins (Over +100/Under -120)
Vanderbilt: 1.5 wins (Over -170/Under +150)
Fav of the bunch .... MIZZ OVER 5 ..
Expected them to be quite thin at QB w Bazalek leaving but Cook looked good enough in the bowl and caught the spring game to at least see him looking pretty comfortable running Drinkwitz' offense and the other QB's are not new in town either and had something to offer as backups .. and we can't ignore that there is a reason Bazalak is xferring from likely Mizzoo starter to Indy and its not because he was a sure thing starter if he stuck around .. WR group actually was impressive, and they haven't had much there last few years... I'll call it now their new 5 star recruit Burden will be in that pre-ssn All SEC WR discussion next year, you'll see why in the Fall ... even outside Burden and Mookie Cooper there's a few other targets that looked good they could have a bit to work with .. D actually brings something back in ret production to build on and thought the DL was actually pretty aggressive getting ..
The big point is I don't need a great or even very good team to hit 5 wins here and at least tie I think we got 4 likely wins on their schedule w homers vs Vandy, FCS Ark Central, LA Tech and New Mex State .. no picnic going to Manhattan but @K.State is very winnable .. seems like books are saying they'd be lucky to win one more but @S.Car, @Aub and even @Fla aren't impossible steals, Aub having alot of trouble in their program, gators in a tricky spot a week before a big LSU rematch, S.Car sounds good now but bit of faith saying they will really ramp it up even w Rattler .. Homers w Kentucky and Arkansas and @Tenn are later in the ssn look tough and we assume all those teams will be leveled up a notch this year but there's no sure things in projecting teams up down, seen plenty of late season implosions and i'd guess one of those games the books must view as a sure thing loss could easily just end up competitive if they get into +TO margin ..
Def think bazalak xferring with nobody else coming in is clouding the vision here, an RSW at 5 also seems the product of many of the SEC teams on their schedule looking like pre-ssn sure thing big improvers vs some covid year version of mizzoo that could be in dogfights with LaTech or Vandy at home... thats possible but pretty tenuous assumption to make even after fall camp let alone now, think I'll trust the gut here .. also think no way this RSW is around come kickoff .. thinik it'll be 5.5 or 6 ..
Fav of the bunch .... MIZZ OVER 5 ..
Expected them to be quite thin at QB w Bazalek leaving but Cook looked good enough in the bowl and caught the spring game to at least see him looking pretty comfortable running Drinkwitz' offense and the other QB's are not new in town either and had something to offer as backups .. and we can't ignore that there is a reason Bazalak is xferring from likely Mizzoo starter to Indy and its not because he was a sure thing starter if he stuck around .. WR group actually was impressive, and they haven't had much there last few years... I'll call it now their new 5 star recruit Burden will be in that pre-ssn All SEC WR discussion next year, you'll see why in the Fall ... even outside Burden and Mookie Cooper there's a few other targets that looked good they could have a bit to work with .. D actually brings something back in ret production to build on and thought the DL was actually pretty aggressive getting ..
The big point is I don't need a great or even very good team to hit 5 wins here and at least tie I think we got 4 likely wins on their schedule w homers vs Vandy, FCS Ark Central, LA Tech and New Mex State .. no picnic going to Manhattan but @K.State is very winnable .. seems like books are saying they'd be lucky to win one more but @S.Car, @Aub and even @Fla aren't impossible steals, Aub having alot of trouble in their program, gators in a tricky spot a week before a big LSU rematch, S.Car sounds good now but bit of faith saying they will really ramp it up even w Rattler .. Homers w Kentucky and Arkansas and @Tenn are later in the ssn look tough and we assume all those teams will be leveled up a notch this year but there's no sure things in projecting teams up down, seen plenty of late season implosions and i'd guess one of those games the books must view as a sure thing loss could easily just end up competitive if they get into +TO margin ..
Def think bazalak xferring with nobody else coming in is clouding the vision here, an RSW at 5 also seems the product of many of the SEC teams on their schedule looking like pre-ssn sure thing big improvers vs some covid year version of mizzoo that could be in dogfights with LaTech or Vandy at home... thats possible but pretty tenuous assumption to make even after fall camp let alone now, think I'll trust the gut here .. also think no way this RSW is around come kickoff .. thinik it'll be 5.5 or 6 ..
@Bridge1
Absolutely great insight, pretty much nailed it. I don’t have my numbers in front of me but MSU was something like a net -35 yards per game last year and went 10-2. I mean good for them for taking advantage and finding ways to win, but those are Maryland numbers and they won 10 games. That schedule included an FCS opponent and avoids teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota whom they add this year. Plus as you mentioned the trip to Washington won’t be easy. Don’t the Huskies have a 5 star QB that should be taking over? Usually a pretty good team out there.
I think they’re going to struggle to make a bowl game this year. Not sure people really understand how special Kenneth Walker was. On one hand the pass D can’t get worse, on the other hand you’re adding some way better football teams to the schedule so not really sure what kind of improvement to expect on that side.
If they top 8 wins again then tip of the cap.
@Bridge1
Absolutely great insight, pretty much nailed it. I don’t have my numbers in front of me but MSU was something like a net -35 yards per game last year and went 10-2. I mean good for them for taking advantage and finding ways to win, but those are Maryland numbers and they won 10 games. That schedule included an FCS opponent and avoids teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota whom they add this year. Plus as you mentioned the trip to Washington won’t be easy. Don’t the Huskies have a 5 star QB that should be taking over? Usually a pretty good team out there.
I think they’re going to struggle to make a bowl game this year. Not sure people really understand how special Kenneth Walker was. On one hand the pass D can’t get worse, on the other hand you’re adding some way better football teams to the schedule so not really sure what kind of improvement to expect on that side.
If they top 8 wins again then tip of the cap.
My sleepers are Texas Tech and Louisville for season win totals…Texas to win big 12 in thier final year they probably win the conference as they get battle tested by Bama early… I think Oklahoma is at least a year away..
My sleepers are Texas Tech and Louisville for season win totals…Texas to win big 12 in thier final year they probably win the conference as they get battle tested by Bama early… I think Oklahoma is at least a year away..
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.