You know that feeling where you have the lock of the century? We’ll I’ve been burned on that feeling many times so I know nothing is a lock but I want to put a big bet on Ohio St to win the conference 22…
Yes I know it’s seems too easy (Only will probably get -200) but that is fine…
here’s what concerns me…
I know Ohio St has a dangerous trio/new D coordinator from Ok St which should dramatically raise the D up a couple notches… plus that team was young last year.. factor in Stroud second year… Henderson .. Smith Njiba ect… I don’t like the depth at WR but Smith Njiba is a one man wrecking crew… pretty much only injury can stop this bet…
Even then… Jack Miller should be able to game manage them to a conference championship if Stroud get injured…
It all comes down to the ole… Penn St game…
They will prob have a white out night game of course bc it’s at PSU…PSU only has MN at home the week before and has Michigan early in the year…
Ohio St has Michigan at home and revenge alone should take care of that…
Penn St has the Spartans on the last game of the season which which most likely won’t be a tough task losing Walker/Nailor/and Key defensive players…
So basically it all comes down to the Penn St game for the Conference… Penn St always plays them tough and will give them everything they got but they did lose some Key defensive players and Dotson… But they still have 100 year old Clifford who has played them many times….
The fear is Penn St getting off to a fast start/Maybe a couple turnovers… and squeaking out a victory in one of those games where everything goes against you… every team is bound to have one or two a year… this could be that type of game… that atmosphere will be crazy…
and if Penn St wins it …they will hold the tie breaker which means Mich AND the Spartans will have to beat them… and like I said I think Penn St beats Mich St at home…
You know that feeling where you have the lock of the century? We’ll I’ve been burned on that feeling many times so I know nothing is a lock but I want to put a big bet on Ohio St to win the conference 22…
Yes I know it’s seems too easy (Only will probably get -200) but that is fine…
here’s what concerns me…
I know Ohio St has a dangerous trio/new D coordinator from Ok St which should dramatically raise the D up a couple notches… plus that team was young last year.. factor in Stroud second year… Henderson .. Smith Njiba ect… I don’t like the depth at WR but Smith Njiba is a one man wrecking crew… pretty much only injury can stop this bet…
Even then… Jack Miller should be able to game manage them to a conference championship if Stroud get injured…
It all comes down to the ole… Penn St game…
They will prob have a white out night game of course bc it’s at PSU…PSU only has MN at home the week before and has Michigan early in the year…
Ohio St has Michigan at home and revenge alone should take care of that…
Penn St has the Spartans on the last game of the season which which most likely won’t be a tough task losing Walker/Nailor/and Key defensive players…
So basically it all comes down to the Penn St game for the Conference… Penn St always plays them tough and will give them everything they got but they did lose some Key defensive players and Dotson… But they still have 100 year old Clifford who has played them many times….
The fear is Penn St getting off to a fast start/Maybe a couple turnovers… and squeaking out a victory in one of those games where everything goes against you… every team is bound to have one or two a year… this could be that type of game… that atmosphere will be crazy…
and if Penn St wins it …they will hold the tie breaker which means Mich AND the Spartans will have to beat them… and like I said I think Penn St beats Mich St at home…
Also.. they did add a star at WR… Tinsley from that WKU team/Houston Baptist… yes he doesn’t have Zappe throwing to him but this dude is a beast!!!! Trust me.. should be no drop off from Dotson..although Dotson may be quicker.. this dude is bigger and elite route running… if you seen him play you know what I’m talking about…
Also.. they did add a star at WR… Tinsley from that WKU team/Houston Baptist… yes he doesn’t have Zappe throwing to him but this dude is a beast!!!! Trust me.. should be no drop off from Dotson..although Dotson may be quicker.. this dude is bigger and elite route running… if you seen him play you know what I’m talking about…
It looks pretty solid for sure and a really great schedule, PSU white out roadie is tough but iowa home week before and NU on deck really isin't that much of a trap .. @MD before Michigan feels pretty good they won't get trapped there in a look ahead .. But at -200 yer gunna have a bit of bankroll tied up for 7 months ... Better way to do that is if you have a book that lets you add open spots to parlays then just make it a 5 or 6 teamer and plug in OSU ML for their must win games and the conf champ game .. its not exact same because you could potentially lose your parlay and OSU still be B10 champs but I bet you'll get much better than -200 on yer cash, depends on how many spots and odds but the thing about these futures is its nearly impossible to not make many multiples more running parlays than futures bets especially w the odds on favs .. so if the plan was to put out 100 to win 50 pre-ssn instead drop 15 to win 50 with a 5 or 6 teamer ... less risk and also lets you be flexible to move off OSU if we see things are actually a little sideways w them ..
Another way to do this parlay deal is after a loss .. parlay bama every game after A&M last year to the SEC champ and you nabbed ~3-1 .. if you did that thru the champ game and they won it woulda been about 10-1 .. no way you were getting close to Bama 10-1 for the natty even after that loss prob closer to 3-1 and maybe 1-1 for the SEC champ... and it was also do or die for bama at that point so the parlay woulda completely aligned at least with an in-ssn natty bet .. pretty slick move esp when we we were pretty sure even at that point bama was one of 2 teams that coulda realistically have won the natty OSU coulda made it but defense clearly wasn't gunna win em a champ game .. and seems like a likely 3 horse race this year, think a good similar see if we can nab a big team off an early loss ..
Most books only let you add 2 or 3 spots but BetAnySports lets you pick a team and add up to 14 open spots (max 15 teamer! lol) .. I know that sounds annoying to do we all like making our picks and dropping a bet and forgetting about it and I even did do that w UGA for a natty bet +475 .. but def gunna look for spots to run the after a loss parlay on any of my top 3 teams especially bama since that would be a great hedge for me ...
It looks pretty solid for sure and a really great schedule, PSU white out roadie is tough but iowa home week before and NU on deck really isin't that much of a trap .. @MD before Michigan feels pretty good they won't get trapped there in a look ahead .. But at -200 yer gunna have a bit of bankroll tied up for 7 months ... Better way to do that is if you have a book that lets you add open spots to parlays then just make it a 5 or 6 teamer and plug in OSU ML for their must win games and the conf champ game .. its not exact same because you could potentially lose your parlay and OSU still be B10 champs but I bet you'll get much better than -200 on yer cash, depends on how many spots and odds but the thing about these futures is its nearly impossible to not make many multiples more running parlays than futures bets especially w the odds on favs .. so if the plan was to put out 100 to win 50 pre-ssn instead drop 15 to win 50 with a 5 or 6 teamer ... less risk and also lets you be flexible to move off OSU if we see things are actually a little sideways w them ..
Another way to do this parlay deal is after a loss .. parlay bama every game after A&M last year to the SEC champ and you nabbed ~3-1 .. if you did that thru the champ game and they won it woulda been about 10-1 .. no way you were getting close to Bama 10-1 for the natty even after that loss prob closer to 3-1 and maybe 1-1 for the SEC champ... and it was also do or die for bama at that point so the parlay woulda completely aligned at least with an in-ssn natty bet .. pretty slick move esp when we we were pretty sure even at that point bama was one of 2 teams that coulda realistically have won the natty OSU coulda made it but defense clearly wasn't gunna win em a champ game .. and seems like a likely 3 horse race this year, think a good similar see if we can nab a big team off an early loss ..
Most books only let you add 2 or 3 spots but BetAnySports lets you pick a team and add up to 14 open spots (max 15 teamer! lol) .. I know that sounds annoying to do we all like making our picks and dropping a bet and forgetting about it and I even did do that w UGA for a natty bet +475 .. but def gunna look for spots to run the after a loss parlay on any of my top 3 teams especially bama since that would be a great hedge for me ...
^^ the only caveat to the above is picking a real long shot .. ran numbers for what happens if we parlay'd LSU in 2019 every game ML for the natty .. end up about 20x your money you wouldn't have had trouble finding 30 to 40X pre-ssn if you shopped around .. and the reason is obvious they looked like legit contenders pretty early on vs weaker competition no upsets along the way other than very slight dog vs bama .. if schedule was more front loaded say getting +500 on the road vs bama before we knew LSU was legit then then they'd get close to the pre-ssn odds .. but any of the real pre-ssn favs to win anything its pretty tough to not to do much better running an open spot parlay on them, books def happy to milk that juice out of fans betting the big names during pre-ssn .. I would anyway lol ..
^^ the only caveat to the above is picking a real long shot .. ran numbers for what happens if we parlay'd LSU in 2019 every game ML for the natty .. end up about 20x your money you wouldn't have had trouble finding 30 to 40X pre-ssn if you shopped around .. and the reason is obvious they looked like legit contenders pretty early on vs weaker competition no upsets along the way other than very slight dog vs bama .. if schedule was more front loaded say getting +500 on the road vs bama before we knew LSU was legit then then they'd get close to the pre-ssn odds .. but any of the real pre-ssn favs to win anything its pretty tough to not to do much better running an open spot parlay on them, books def happy to milk that juice out of fans betting the big names during pre-ssn .. I would anyway lol ..
Like your responses man…. And your big team after a loss tactic… I think OSU woke up after that Oregon game though…you are right about the every game value too… definitely noted… Georgia doesn’t look like they will lose possibly until the SEC championship but Bama could have a loss with that Texas-Arkansas-A and M gauntlet leading up to the 4th Sat in Oct game against Ten at Tn followed by a road game at Ms ST then LSU…whew.. could definitely see them getting caught at TN… but yeah… don’t mind the money being tied up because I have a feeling OSU will be #1 most of the year… got them at 7-1 in Feb before the books got wise.. can still find them at 5-1 at some books suprisingly….
And yes… Noramlly with OSU I’d be worried about that Iowa away game on deck the week before but not this year with Petris.. Goodson gone… Half the OL gone with thier All Marican Center and pretty much thier entire secondary… was just worried about that Penn St game… Brisker one of the better DBs for PSU will be gone but they will still have Joey Porter Jr but they are gonna lose both starting Lbs and two DLs… I think they got some great fill ins from the portal but that D will definitely take a dent…just wanted everyone’s response on that PSU game… that’s a their National championship …. You def gave me some thinking to do on those parlay numbers though…. maybe a nice tactic if OSU losses to ND in the opener but I don’t see that happening…
I see these teams in the final 4:
-1 loss Bama
-OSU
-Texas/Second SEC (possibly GA even with an SEC championship loss-just don’t see them repeating as Natl champs with those key defensive losses/RB cook gone/Bennet to not get injured all season..Plus Bamas D is going to be nasty in the SEC championship as long as they don’t get that second loss in that gauntlet I talked about..
Like your responses man…. And your big team after a loss tactic… I think OSU woke up after that Oregon game though…you are right about the every game value too… definitely noted… Georgia doesn’t look like they will lose possibly until the SEC championship but Bama could have a loss with that Texas-Arkansas-A and M gauntlet leading up to the 4th Sat in Oct game against Ten at Tn followed by a road game at Ms ST then LSU…whew.. could definitely see them getting caught at TN… but yeah… don’t mind the money being tied up because I have a feeling OSU will be #1 most of the year… got them at 7-1 in Feb before the books got wise.. can still find them at 5-1 at some books suprisingly….
And yes… Noramlly with OSU I’d be worried about that Iowa away game on deck the week before but not this year with Petris.. Goodson gone… Half the OL gone with thier All Marican Center and pretty much thier entire secondary… was just worried about that Penn St game… Brisker one of the better DBs for PSU will be gone but they will still have Joey Porter Jr but they are gonna lose both starting Lbs and two DLs… I think they got some great fill ins from the portal but that D will definitely take a dent…just wanted everyone’s response on that PSU game… that’s a their National championship …. You def gave me some thinking to do on those parlay numbers though…. maybe a nice tactic if OSU losses to ND in the opener but I don’t see that happening…
I see these teams in the final 4:
-1 loss Bama
-OSU
-Texas/Second SEC (possibly GA even with an SEC championship loss-just don’t see them repeating as Natl champs with those key defensive losses/RB cook gone/Bennet to not get injured all season..Plus Bamas D is going to be nasty in the SEC championship as long as they don’t get that second loss in that gauntlet I talked about..
^^ the only caveat to the above is picking a real long shot .. ran numbers for what happens if we parlay'd LSU in 2019 every game ML for the natty .. end up about 20x your money you wouldn't have had trouble finding 30 to 40X pre-ssn if you shopped around .. and the reason is obvious they looked like legit contenders pretty early on vs weaker competition no upsets along the way other than very slight dog vs bama .. if schedule was more front loaded say getting +500 on the road vs bama before we knew LSU was legit then then they'd get close to the pre-ssn odds .. but any of the real pre-ssn favs to win anything its pretty tough to not to do much better running an open spot parlay on them, books def happy to milk that juice out of fans betting the big names during pre-ssn .. I would anyway lol ..
U can't do that..What if they lose a non conference game you will be chasing that loss early or lose 1 B10 conference game end of the season and still win the B10, which is a realistic possibility..
^^ the only caveat to the above is picking a real long shot .. ran numbers for what happens if we parlay'd LSU in 2019 every game ML for the natty .. end up about 20x your money you wouldn't have had trouble finding 30 to 40X pre-ssn if you shopped around .. and the reason is obvious they looked like legit contenders pretty early on vs weaker competition no upsets along the way other than very slight dog vs bama .. if schedule was more front loaded say getting +500 on the road vs bama before we knew LSU was legit then then they'd get close to the pre-ssn odds .. but any of the real pre-ssn favs to win anything its pretty tough to not to do much better running an open spot parlay on them, books def happy to milk that juice out of fans betting the big names during pre-ssn .. I would anyway lol ..
U can't do that..What if they lose a non conference game you will be chasing that loss early or lose 1 B10 conference game end of the season and still win the B10, which is a realistic possibility..
Sup Dave yeah I did mention that in post #3, parlay method won't align exactly for pre-ssn futures .. but ML asked for some insight on playing OSU -200 for conf and wanted to share an alternative way that while not the same bet it is somewhat closely aligned and in my view less risk and more flexible in choosing key games and not tying up a huge bet for long period and can duck out of it whenever, etc .. But yer right we found out last year you don't even need to win your conference to win a natty lol so for sure parlaying could leave him disappointed.. I did try to make that clear to him in the post ..
End of the day if ML still wants to play it as a future my advice is to wait.. Even if it is the lock of the MF century the only reason to bet it now is if at a min he can't get the same odds later when more info / certainty is available... I suspect not only will those odds be around but unlikely that the first couple books offering OSU conf futures will even be the best available .. even small odds change -200 to -150 is def worth waiting on ..
Sup Dave yeah I did mention that in post #3, parlay method won't align exactly for pre-ssn futures .. but ML asked for some insight on playing OSU -200 for conf and wanted to share an alternative way that while not the same bet it is somewhat closely aligned and in my view less risk and more flexible in choosing key games and not tying up a huge bet for long period and can duck out of it whenever, etc .. But yer right we found out last year you don't even need to win your conference to win a natty lol so for sure parlaying could leave him disappointed.. I did try to make that clear to him in the post ..
End of the day if ML still wants to play it as a future my advice is to wait.. Even if it is the lock of the MF century the only reason to bet it now is if at a min he can't get the same odds later when more info / certainty is available... I suspect not only will those odds be around but unlikely that the first couple books offering OSU conf futures will even be the best available .. even small odds change -200 to -150 is def worth waiting on ..
Yeah Mav good grab w OSU 7-1 think that was def worth playing ..
I think very good chance for UGA makes the playoff esp when the committee approved putting the 2 SEC's LY and then they proved they were far and away the best teams in CFB w nothing else even close .. Never woulda imagined pre-ssn that it would shake out with both of them and Cincy filling 3 spots but that's just how devoid we were of any truly elite teams .. Even a 2-Loss UGA is not a total deal breaker, we'd have to do some assuming for that to make sense but very possible scenario they lose one reg ssn and play an undefeated bama real close in a champ game and committee orders a up a ratings bonanza rematch .. Really depends how many other undefeated or one loss teams are in the field .. Nothing indicates to me Clemson and ND will will cruise to one loss seasons that would be a huge road block but they both play each other and ND also plays at USC and at OSU ... UGA should smack Oregon out the way in the opener, Bama same to Texas and it will be very tough for either of them to run the table thereafter ..
Say Bama 13-0, OSU 13-0, 12-1 Clemson who realistically wedging out an 11-2 UGA if they're off a tossup loss to Bama? .. Another 11-1 SEC team I suppose could .. one loss USC, Utah, Oklahoma ... funny feeling the committee takes UGA over 13-0 Cincy, they won't have the schedule this year ... Houston's schedule is really unworthy .. BYU maybe the one non-P5 with a schedule that could get in but 12-0 would be a REAL tall order, would be fun to see though ... I'd guess Utah has best shot to play spoiler ..
Anyway, my gut says UGA makes it one way or another this year .. I do want to check out what Utah's 'make the playoff' odds are though ..
Yeah Mav good grab w OSU 7-1 think that was def worth playing ..
I think very good chance for UGA makes the playoff esp when the committee approved putting the 2 SEC's LY and then they proved they were far and away the best teams in CFB w nothing else even close .. Never woulda imagined pre-ssn that it would shake out with both of them and Cincy filling 3 spots but that's just how devoid we were of any truly elite teams .. Even a 2-Loss UGA is not a total deal breaker, we'd have to do some assuming for that to make sense but very possible scenario they lose one reg ssn and play an undefeated bama real close in a champ game and committee orders a up a ratings bonanza rematch .. Really depends how many other undefeated or one loss teams are in the field .. Nothing indicates to me Clemson and ND will will cruise to one loss seasons that would be a huge road block but they both play each other and ND also plays at USC and at OSU ... UGA should smack Oregon out the way in the opener, Bama same to Texas and it will be very tough for either of them to run the table thereafter ..
Say Bama 13-0, OSU 13-0, 12-1 Clemson who realistically wedging out an 11-2 UGA if they're off a tossup loss to Bama? .. Another 11-1 SEC team I suppose could .. one loss USC, Utah, Oklahoma ... funny feeling the committee takes UGA over 13-0 Cincy, they won't have the schedule this year ... Houston's schedule is really unworthy .. BYU maybe the one non-P5 with a schedule that could get in but 12-0 would be a REAL tall order, would be fun to see though ... I'd guess Utah has best shot to play spoiler ..
Anyway, my gut says UGA makes it one way or another this year .. I do want to check out what Utah's 'make the playoff' odds are though ..
@Bridge1 Like your responses man…. And your big team after a loss tactic… I think OSU woke up after that Oregon game though…you are right about the every game value too… definitely noted… Georgia doesn’t look like they will lose possibly until the SEC championship but Bama could have a loss with that Texas-Arkansas-A and M gauntlet leading up to the 4th Sat in Oct game against Ten at Tn followed by a road game at Ms ST then LSU…whew.. could definitely see them getting caught at TN… but yeah… don’t mind the money being tied up because I have a feeling OSU will be #1 most of the year… got them at 7-1 in Feb before the books got wise.. can still find them at 5-1 at some books suprisingly…. And yes… Noramlly with OSU I’d be worried about that Iowa away game on deck the week before but not this year with Petris.. Goodson gone… Half the OL gone with thier All Marican Center and pretty much thier entire secondary… was just worried about that Penn St game… Brisker one of the better DBs for PSU will be gone but they will still have Joey Porter Jr but they are gonna lose both starting Lbs and two DLs… I think they got some great fill ins from the portal but that D will definitely take a dent…just wanted everyone’s response on that PSU game… that’s a their National championship …. You def gave me some thinking to do on those parlay numbers though…. maybe a nice tactic if OSU losses to ND in the opener but I don’t see that happening… I see these teams in the final 4: -1 loss Bama -OSU -Texas/Second SEC (possibly GA even with an SEC championship loss-just don’t see them repeating as Natl champs with those key defensive losses/RB cook gone/Bennet to not get injured all season..Plus Bamas D is going to be nasty in the SEC championship as long as they don’t get that second loss in that gauntlet I talked about.. -and a PAC 12/ACC champ/ or second Big 10 team
You really see Texas second? Hmm. Maybe I'm misreading that.
@Bridge1 Like your responses man…. And your big team after a loss tactic… I think OSU woke up after that Oregon game though…you are right about the every game value too… definitely noted… Georgia doesn’t look like they will lose possibly until the SEC championship but Bama could have a loss with that Texas-Arkansas-A and M gauntlet leading up to the 4th Sat in Oct game against Ten at Tn followed by a road game at Ms ST then LSU…whew.. could definitely see them getting caught at TN… but yeah… don’t mind the money being tied up because I have a feeling OSU will be #1 most of the year… got them at 7-1 in Feb before the books got wise.. can still find them at 5-1 at some books suprisingly…. And yes… Noramlly with OSU I’d be worried about that Iowa away game on deck the week before but not this year with Petris.. Goodson gone… Half the OL gone with thier All Marican Center and pretty much thier entire secondary… was just worried about that Penn St game… Brisker one of the better DBs for PSU will be gone but they will still have Joey Porter Jr but they are gonna lose both starting Lbs and two DLs… I think they got some great fill ins from the portal but that D will definitely take a dent…just wanted everyone’s response on that PSU game… that’s a their National championship …. You def gave me some thinking to do on those parlay numbers though…. maybe a nice tactic if OSU losses to ND in the opener but I don’t see that happening… I see these teams in the final 4: -1 loss Bama -OSU -Texas/Second SEC (possibly GA even with an SEC championship loss-just don’t see them repeating as Natl champs with those key defensive losses/RB cook gone/Bennet to not get injured all season..Plus Bamas D is going to be nasty in the SEC championship as long as they don’t get that second loss in that gauntlet I talked about.. -and a PAC 12/ACC champ/ or second Big 10 team
You really see Texas second? Hmm. Maybe I'm misreading that.
They want to make a statement upon entering the SEC so extra motivation…
Second year coaches usually click.. the ones that know what they are doing… and I do have a bit of faith in Sark after glimpses of that offense last year…
They will be battle tested early with Bama …which will not only help the team but a young QB in Ewers..sort of like the Stroud/Oregon situation last year… so they will feel what playing a possible National championship contender is like/and Heisman winner early in the season..-of course they lose that contest but if they can hang for awhile that will really boost their confidence… Bijan should have a breakout game if he is really a heisman contender and I love second year RBs like him and Henderson from OSU to break out this year… as the season progresses… Ok St had thier season last year…Kstate will make some waves with Martinez/Duece and that Defence ( they could be a surprise team) Texas Tech I really love but they are a year away… Daniels for WestVirgina will be a difference but still too many missing peices..Baylor losing too many key players in the draft although I like thier coaching staff…
So it really comes down to the Red River.. and would you take Bijan and second year Sark over first year Oklahoma coaching staff midway through the year with a UCF QB? Love UCF that my alter mater… Oklahoma will be scary especially with Lebby coming back and Head coach running the D… but in a high scoring affair… I think Texas gets it done in that game..
Even if they accumulate a loss during the year they own the tie breaker and a 1-loss Big 12 champ should be able to get in… yes they will have to win the championship game also but Ewers would have had the whole season to progress.. also again.. Robison and Sark playing calling should be able to shoulder the load..
Just saying.. 1 loss Texas with that strength of sched should be able to get in… I just think Oklahoma is year year away.. I hate putting a first year coach in the playoff..
They want to make a statement upon entering the SEC so extra motivation…
Second year coaches usually click.. the ones that know what they are doing… and I do have a bit of faith in Sark after glimpses of that offense last year…
They will be battle tested early with Bama …which will not only help the team but a young QB in Ewers..sort of like the Stroud/Oregon situation last year… so they will feel what playing a possible National championship contender is like/and Heisman winner early in the season..-of course they lose that contest but if they can hang for awhile that will really boost their confidence… Bijan should have a breakout game if he is really a heisman contender and I love second year RBs like him and Henderson from OSU to break out this year… as the season progresses… Ok St had thier season last year…Kstate will make some waves with Martinez/Duece and that Defence ( they could be a surprise team) Texas Tech I really love but they are a year away… Daniels for WestVirgina will be a difference but still too many missing peices..Baylor losing too many key players in the draft although I like thier coaching staff…
So it really comes down to the Red River.. and would you take Bijan and second year Sark over first year Oklahoma coaching staff midway through the year with a UCF QB? Love UCF that my alter mater… Oklahoma will be scary especially with Lebby coming back and Head coach running the D… but in a high scoring affair… I think Texas gets it done in that game..
Even if they accumulate a loss during the year they own the tie breaker and a 1-loss Big 12 champ should be able to get in… yes they will have to win the championship game also but Ewers would have had the whole season to progress.. also again.. Robison and Sark playing calling should be able to shoulder the load..
Just saying.. 1 loss Texas with that strength of sched should be able to get in… I just think Oklahoma is year year away.. I hate putting a first year coach in the playoff..
Yeah but think of how every team in the B12 is viewing UT's last hurrah in the conference .. would expect everyone's been planning to give UT / OU the hardest goodbye punch they possibly can... seemed like the case last year, even Kansas brought their A game vs both of them .. and more than happy to deny them a shot at the playoffs even at the behest of the money it makes for the conference .. The schedule is actually great w just 3 true conf roadies and those are vs T-Tech, K-St, Kansas should be big favs in each ..
But assume UT has a loss on their schedule already vs Bama and I think its a really tall order running the table .. tough to see a B12 make it going 11-2 maybe UT could if a near bama win and loss to a really good OU team reg-ssn then beat em big in the champ game.. something very solid like that and if stars align a case gets made to finagle them in there .... conf starts @TTech, W.VA, OU, IA.ST, @OK.St, think good chance they'll have one or two fairly down games somewhere in that stretch around the big OU game ... just seems like a really really narrow CFP path if they don't beat bama .. Hope they go on that ride though, would be fun to see!
Yeah but think of how every team in the B12 is viewing UT's last hurrah in the conference .. would expect everyone's been planning to give UT / OU the hardest goodbye punch they possibly can... seemed like the case last year, even Kansas brought their A game vs both of them .. and more than happy to deny them a shot at the playoffs even at the behest of the money it makes for the conference .. The schedule is actually great w just 3 true conf roadies and those are vs T-Tech, K-St, Kansas should be big favs in each ..
But assume UT has a loss on their schedule already vs Bama and I think its a really tall order running the table .. tough to see a B12 make it going 11-2 maybe UT could if a near bama win and loss to a really good OU team reg-ssn then beat em big in the champ game.. something very solid like that and if stars align a case gets made to finagle them in there .... conf starts @TTech, W.VA, OU, IA.ST, @OK.St, think good chance they'll have one or two fairly down games somewhere in that stretch around the big OU game ... just seems like a really really narrow CFP path if they don't beat bama .. Hope they go on that ride though, would be fun to see!
It’s really hard to say this early. That Ohio state defense was atrocious. I like the DC hire, that can fix a lot of problems but kind of need to see it on the field. They could lose multiple games if they don’t get a significant bump defensively.
Bucks get ND right away to test those changes. Also have a white out at Penn St & add Wisconsin to their schedule. Toughest slate they’ve played in a while.
I think the Michigan O will be every bit as good. Also think there’s a lot of talented players ready to fill the role of the guys who departed to the NFL. Can they be Hutch/Ojabo/Hill good? I doubt it but there’s some talented guys with a huge opportunity here. 10-11 games to develop as the schedule sets up nicely early.
As of now that’s setting up to be a game @ the shoe for all the marbles again.
It’s really hard to say this early. That Ohio state defense was atrocious. I like the DC hire, that can fix a lot of problems but kind of need to see it on the field. They could lose multiple games if they don’t get a significant bump defensively.
Bucks get ND right away to test those changes. Also have a white out at Penn St & add Wisconsin to their schedule. Toughest slate they’ve played in a while.
I think the Michigan O will be every bit as good. Also think there’s a lot of talented players ready to fill the role of the guys who departed to the NFL. Can they be Hutch/Ojabo/Hill good? I doubt it but there’s some talented guys with a huge opportunity here. 10-11 games to develop as the schedule sets up nicely early.
As of now that’s setting up to be a game @ the shoe for all the marbles again.
Thanks for the insight… yeah I think OSUs offense will be too much to handle for any big ten team so even if they improve just a bit from last year in D they should have it in the bag..Also they showed a lot of heart coming back in that Rose Bowl so even if they fall behind a couple TDS at some point they should be able to make up the ground especially with all those guys being second year… and call me crazy but I think Smith Njiba is better than Olave and Wilson individually…
Its just that Penn Sate game… I think I’m going to roll the dice because I see a big drop off defensively for Michigan and they won’t be able to keep up on offense… and at the shoe…all OSU has heard all off-season is Michigan talk…
I think Knowles will stop the run.. it’s just the young secondary.. but the offense I think will be scarier than people think…
Thanks for the insight… yeah I think OSUs offense will be too much to handle for any big ten team so even if they improve just a bit from last year in D they should have it in the bag..Also they showed a lot of heart coming back in that Rose Bowl so even if they fall behind a couple TDS at some point they should be able to make up the ground especially with all those guys being second year… and call me crazy but I think Smith Njiba is better than Olave and Wilson individually…
Its just that Penn Sate game… I think I’m going to roll the dice because I see a big drop off defensively for Michigan and they won’t be able to keep up on offense… and at the shoe…all OSU has heard all off-season is Michigan talk…
I think Knowles will stop the run.. it’s just the young secondary.. but the offense I think will be scarier than people think…
Agree with Smith-Njigba. Also think Henderson is going to be a great back for Ohio state. Kind of disagree on the offense as a whole though, they were #1 in the nation and averaged over 560 yards per game. Might be tough to improve on that.
Im kind of interested to see how this thing goes now that it’s been Days team for what, 3 years? The urban effects are wearing off. They got pounded physically by 2 teams on the schedule last year. Wisconsin can play that same brand. Don’t think the defensive drop off for Michigan will be as significant as some think. One thing I noticed watching Ohio state in person last year was how disengaged the team was during games. Guys on the sideline looking like they didn’t even care to be there. Was weird to see, and can’t help but think the NIL era could backfire on some of these programs loaded with 5* kids. Think that first game vs ND is huge for the entire season bc as I mentioned they’re going to be challenged more throughout the season than they were in 2021 and an early loss could snowball. Wonder what the win total will open.
Agree with Smith-Njigba. Also think Henderson is going to be a great back for Ohio state. Kind of disagree on the offense as a whole though, they were #1 in the nation and averaged over 560 yards per game. Might be tough to improve on that.
Im kind of interested to see how this thing goes now that it’s been Days team for what, 3 years? The urban effects are wearing off. They got pounded physically by 2 teams on the schedule last year. Wisconsin can play that same brand. Don’t think the defensive drop off for Michigan will be as significant as some think. One thing I noticed watching Ohio state in person last year was how disengaged the team was during games. Guys on the sideline looking like they didn’t even care to be there. Was weird to see, and can’t help but think the NIL era could backfire on some of these programs loaded with 5* kids. Think that first game vs ND is huge for the entire season bc as I mentioned they’re going to be challenged more throughout the season than they were in 2021 and an early loss could snowball. Wonder what the win total will open.
Ohio State did not cover the spread vs Minn., Oregon, Tulsa, Penn St, Neb., Michigan, and Utah in 2021-22.
Utah, Michigan, Oregon, Tulsa, and Minn. had season higher per game offensive rushing yds than Ohio State offense.
Outliers Nebraska held Buckeyes to 90 yds rushing while Penn St allowed 165 yds.
Every team the Buckeyes covered the spread had less rushing yds per game avg for the season than the Buckeyes.
Defensively only Mich., Utah, Minn., and Mich St had better run defenses for yds/game than Ohio State. (And the Gophers D came on later in the season.)
Ohio State did not cover the spread vs Minn., Oregon, Tulsa, Penn St, Neb., Michigan, and Utah in 2021-22.
Utah, Michigan, Oregon, Tulsa, and Minn. had season higher per game offensive rushing yds than Ohio State offense.
Outliers Nebraska held Buckeyes to 90 yds rushing while Penn St allowed 165 yds.
Every team the Buckeyes covered the spread had less rushing yds per game avg for the season than the Buckeyes.
Defensively only Mich., Utah, Minn., and Mich St had better run defenses for yds/game than Ohio State. (And the Gophers D came on later in the season.)
…lots of good info…Like Hockeynight said… I think NIL has changed the game… but I still trust Day… I think he’s all in this year…. The move to get the best D coordinator in college football showed he is serious about winning it all…but at least a big ten title at the least…
I have a sneaky feeling about Nebraska this year but that for another post…and Wisconsin rarely has back to back down years… that might be a season total to watch…and last… Maryland… They also might be able to put something together this year… no conference championship or nothing but maybe 7-8 wins..another total to watch…
…lots of good info…Like Hockeynight said… I think NIL has changed the game… but I still trust Day… I think he’s all in this year…. The move to get the best D coordinator in college football showed he is serious about winning it all…but at least a big ten title at the least…
I have a sneaky feeling about Nebraska this year but that for another post…and Wisconsin rarely has back to back down years… that might be a season total to watch…and last… Maryland… They also might be able to put something together this year… no conference championship or nothing but maybe 7-8 wins..another total to watch…
Yeah usually wait for Maryland to look like a whole new team in the first couple games then rip them vs anyone good .. did it again last year started hot 3-0 SU vs W.VA ILL and Kent St couple covers .. Got the Terp Train rollin for Iowa to come into town only 3 pt dogs lol .. murdered .. that kicked off and 0-7 ATS streak .... they did beat Rutgers at the end SU/ATS but man that is the story every year for them .. beat Mich as 20 pt dogs then tank in 2020 .. those big Texas wins years back .. Last 11 years FBS opponents only I clock them going 9-2 ATS in their opening games .. 39-66 after that ..37% over 105 games lol .. we'll see if different this year but should cream buffalo and charlotte, Terp Train really gets rolling if they bag SMU big too before going to Michigan .. hopefully just a 3 point dog or again lol.... even if they do surprise us this year its just a team thats unbetable until they kinda prove they can hang in the B10 .. couple others surprises in the 'since 2011 ATS super stinkers club' Arizona, V.Tech, Tenn and A&M .. eek ..
Caught the Purdue spring game, defense looks ready to go .. I think Brohm's pre-ssn offensive hype they had for so many years has fully worn off so if it looks like the O can make a little stride this year then def think they'll be worth betting on .. if so then no reason they can't be competing for the division, think the West might be kinda up for grabs again this year ..
Yeah usually wait for Maryland to look like a whole new team in the first couple games then rip them vs anyone good .. did it again last year started hot 3-0 SU vs W.VA ILL and Kent St couple covers .. Got the Terp Train rollin for Iowa to come into town only 3 pt dogs lol .. murdered .. that kicked off and 0-7 ATS streak .... they did beat Rutgers at the end SU/ATS but man that is the story every year for them .. beat Mich as 20 pt dogs then tank in 2020 .. those big Texas wins years back .. Last 11 years FBS opponents only I clock them going 9-2 ATS in their opening games .. 39-66 after that ..37% over 105 games lol .. we'll see if different this year but should cream buffalo and charlotte, Terp Train really gets rolling if they bag SMU big too before going to Michigan .. hopefully just a 3 point dog or again lol.... even if they do surprise us this year its just a team thats unbetable until they kinda prove they can hang in the B10 .. couple others surprises in the 'since 2011 ATS super stinkers club' Arizona, V.Tech, Tenn and A&M .. eek ..
Caught the Purdue spring game, defense looks ready to go .. I think Brohm's pre-ssn offensive hype they had for so many years has fully worn off so if it looks like the O can make a little stride this year then def think they'll be worth betting on .. if so then no reason they can't be competing for the division, think the West might be kinda up for grabs again this year ..
Nice info on Purdue… they still have O’Connell at QB? Bell was a beast so they will definitely take a hit on offense… They have that big fullback on offense but he’s slow as molasses… they aren’t going anywhere on the ground… maybe they will be valuable as an under team with that D… and yeah… only reason for the hunch on Maryland is they should have some good veteran leadership with all the dudes coming back and Tags 3rd year… Loxley is always on the hot seat but I think this is really a do or get fired year for him.. only reason he’s been there that long is he the head of that committee… basically he’s a politician… thanks for those trends on them though guys… once Tago get frustrated the games usually over…
But bridge you are right that division should be wide open…I like Wisky to take their rightful place though.. they have a good back but lost two heart and sole LBs…
Nice info on Purdue… they still have O’Connell at QB? Bell was a beast so they will definitely take a hit on offense… They have that big fullback on offense but he’s slow as molasses… they aren’t going anywhere on the ground… maybe they will be valuable as an under team with that D… and yeah… only reason for the hunch on Maryland is they should have some good veteran leadership with all the dudes coming back and Tags 3rd year… Loxley is always on the hot seat but I think this is really a do or get fired year for him.. only reason he’s been there that long is he the head of that committee… basically he’s a politician… thanks for those trends on them though guys… once Tago get frustrated the games usually over…
But bridge you are right that division should be wide open…I like Wisky to take their rightful place though.. they have a good back but lost two heart and sole LBs…
I was wrong, the Terps were 10-1 not 9-1 with spread over 10 pts. Real Jeckel & Hyde team last few years. And those 10 games the spread was off an additional avg of 22 points per game!
As soon as they hit a run defense they would fall apart it seems. Lack of size and depth maybe?
Last season Maryland played 5 Big10 teams with rush yds/game defenses in the top 30. They lost all 5 games and failed to cover the points given by 14, 7.5, 34, 25, and 27. Two opponents were rated 57th and 62nd in rush D and Maryland won both games but failed to cover as slight favs, (ILL and Indy.) Penn St rush D was 70th in the nation yet PSU covered the -10 vs Terps by 7 pts. Rutgers D was rated 72nd and Maryland covered by +22 pts. So Penn St the outlier here.
But nothing stays the same forever. Will see if this continues.
I was wrong, the Terps were 10-1 not 9-1 with spread over 10 pts. Real Jeckel & Hyde team last few years. And those 10 games the spread was off an additional avg of 22 points per game!
As soon as they hit a run defense they would fall apart it seems. Lack of size and depth maybe?
Last season Maryland played 5 Big10 teams with rush yds/game defenses in the top 30. They lost all 5 games and failed to cover the points given by 14, 7.5, 34, 25, and 27. Two opponents were rated 57th and 62nd in rush D and Maryland won both games but failed to cover as slight favs, (ILL and Indy.) Penn St rush D was 70th in the nation yet PSU covered the -10 vs Terps by 7 pts. Rutgers D was rated 72nd and Maryland covered by +22 pts. So Penn St the outlier here.
But nothing stays the same forever. Will see if this continues.
yeeep thats the thing about those kinda razzlie dazzlie pass teams .. first time they play a real defense its like hitting a brick wall .. SMU / Cincy was like that the last couple years, Ponies play well for a few games makes it a pretty low spread then boom... lights out ..
yeeep thats the thing about those kinda razzlie dazzlie pass teams .. first time they play a real defense its like hitting a brick wall .. SMU / Cincy was like that the last couple years, Ponies play well for a few games makes it a pretty low spread then boom... lights out ..
Thx for the heads up!!! I don't have Wynn in my state which is too bad they've been first out of the gate on a few numbers already .. Yeah I make that MSU number close to 6.75 just lightly fooling around with probabilities, think thats worth a stab if I can get that for -110 think its worth a stab .
ACC is up at pointsbet and william hill .. Rough run last year w a bunch of teams really underperforming pretty massively Clem obviously but MIA, UNC, VT, BC, FSU, Ville and that's the core of the conference, think all of them missed their RSWs LY .. makes sense things turned upside down w UVA, Pitt, NC St and Wake battling for their divisions lol .. conf been on a downward slope for a while but the usual heavy hitters should be more competitive this year .. would look to fade some of the bigger numbers if anything already took Clem under 10.5 .. only one I'd consider going over on the top end is w NC State .. MIA gets to 9 might take a small stab under ..
CLEM 10.5 PITT 9.5 WAKE 9 MIA 8.5 NC ST 8.5 UNC 7.5/8 FSU 7.5 UVA 7 BC 6.5/6 VILLE 5.5/6 V.TECH 5.5 CUSE 4.5/4 DUKE 3.5 GT 3.5/3
Thx for the heads up!!! I don't have Wynn in my state which is too bad they've been first out of the gate on a few numbers already .. Yeah I make that MSU number close to 6.75 just lightly fooling around with probabilities, think thats worth a stab if I can get that for -110 think its worth a stab .
ACC is up at pointsbet and william hill .. Rough run last year w a bunch of teams really underperforming pretty massively Clem obviously but MIA, UNC, VT, BC, FSU, Ville and that's the core of the conference, think all of them missed their RSWs LY .. makes sense things turned upside down w UVA, Pitt, NC St and Wake battling for their divisions lol .. conf been on a downward slope for a while but the usual heavy hitters should be more competitive this year .. would look to fade some of the bigger numbers if anything already took Clem under 10.5 .. only one I'd consider going over on the top end is w NC State .. MIA gets to 9 might take a small stab under ..
CLEM 10.5 PITT 9.5 WAKE 9 MIA 8.5 NC ST 8.5 UNC 7.5/8 FSU 7.5 UVA 7 BC 6.5/6 VILLE 5.5/6 V.TECH 5.5 CUSE 4.5/4 DUKE 3.5 GT 3.5/3
I’d go under on Pitt/wake/and Big ten Michigan St…all just seem kind of high to me and just because some of these teams had great years doesn’t mean they can duplicate it back to back..
I’d go under on Pitt/wake/and Big ten Michigan St…all just seem kind of high to me and just because some of these teams had great years doesn’t mean they can duplicate it back to back..
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