Monaco Grand Prix Picks and Predictions: Home Victory a Long Time Coming

Charles Leclerc's history at his home race, the Monaco Grand Prix, is brutally unlucky. With a title-worthy car and a circuit fitting its strengths, our F1 betting picks and predictions like Leclerc to finally break through in Monte Carlo.

May 28, 2022 • 13:14 ET • 4 min read

The crown jewel on the Formula 1 calendar will be on display this weekend, as the sport descends on the streets of Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix. 

F1's most famous race arrives as the title race heats up, with Red Bull's Max Verstappen overtaking Ferrari's Charles Leclerc for the Drivers' Championship lead last weekend. However, that time atop the standings could be short-lived for Verstappen, with Leclerc the favorite in Monaco Grand Prix odds

Check out our Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions, as Formula 1's most unique race meets a blossoming title race. 

Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions

Post-qualifying picks

Picks made on 5/28/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Pre-qualifying predictions

Picks made on 5/27/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best F1 bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some F1 betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users with Caesars can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up  Now

B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only

Monaco GP picks (post-qualifying)

Fastest lap pick

Such is the importance of qualifying and the difficulty of overtaking in Monaco that after quali, value is difficult to be found across the board. We can, however, get some value in taking Leclerc to set the fastest lap at +100.

As expected, Leclerc qualified on pole on Saturday with his Ferrari best equipped to handle the tight streets of Monte Carlo. What wasn't totally expected, however, was just how easily he crushed the field. 

Leclerc's first push lap of Q3 was enough for pole, as he posted a phenomenal 1:12:569, which was 0.225 seconds up on second-place Carlos Sainz Jr. He was the quickest in all three sectors and, despite comfortably on pole, was on pace to set a new quickest time before Sergio Perez's crash ended the session.

The Ferrari driver has been the fastest around Monaco in nearly every session this weekend, and there's no reason to expect that to change Sunday. And, helping our fastest lap bet is the reality of this circuit. Track position is too important and the pit lane is too narrow for teams to risk bringing in drivers late for a fastest lap attempt.

The extra point will be won on merit and not manufactured at the end of the race — this favors Leclerc considerably.      

Pick: Charles Leclerc - Fastest lap (+100 at bet365)

Race match pick 

Until a late crash in Q3, Red Bull's Sergio Perez looked like the greatest threat to Leclerc's pole position. The Mexican driver had been fantastic all weekend, finishing second in FP1, third in FP2, quickest in FP3, and then second in Q2. 

A front row start, in second, wasn't out of the question until Perez crashed and ended the session with the third-quickest time. Still, he is in a great position of taking a podium tomorrow — and beating his teammate, Max Verstappen, along the way.

Perez is priced at +175 to finish ahead of Verstappen, while his title-winning teammate comes back at -250. Of course, in ideal circumstances, Red Bull will favor the championship leader in Verstappen, but this isn't ideal circumstances.

Monaco isn't exactly a circuit where a team can allow its No. 1 driver to overtake its No. 2 and go chase down the leaders, with overtaking nearly impossible. And, Verstappen just hasn't been quicker this weekend. Perez has beaten him in every single session except for Q1, when Verstappen was quicker by 0.011 seconds.

As long as Perez can stay ahead of Verstappen off the line and into the first turn, that track position should sustain throughout the race. 

The only caveat here is to wait on news of Perez's car. The damage suffered from his crash at the end of Q3 was fairly substantial, with the back end of the car taking most of the force. Early reports are encouraging but in the event Perez's gearbox would need to be changed, he would drop five places and have no chance of beating Verstappen.

Provided the car checks out and he maintains third, however, he'll have a great shot at holding off his teammate and claiming a podium.  

Pick: Sergio Perez - Higher finish than Max Verstappen (+175 at bet365)

Monaco GP predictions (pre-qualifying)

Fastest qualifier and race win pick

Ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix, we outlined why the upcoming races in Barcelona and Monaco would likely heavily favor Charles Leclerc and Ferrari, with the car's superior downforce and speed in corners ruling those tracks. 

Leclerc subsequently took pole position last weekend and was comfortably ahead of the pack on Sunday before a retirement ended his race on lap 26, taking away what was going to be an easy victory. He'll have an excellent chance to recoup that opportunity lost this weekend, with Monaco an even more suitable circuit for the Ferrari's strengths — and without a long start/finish straight for Red Bull's power to shine on. 

Rightfully a -138 favorite to win the race, we can get more value by taking Leclerc to qualify on pole, too. That wrinkle comes with little risk, such is the importance of track position in Monaco (last year saw just one overtake in the entire race).

Over the last 10 years, when F1 regulations changed and the cars grew in size, there have been an average of 10 overtakes per race in Monaco (compared to 28 in 2011). Of the nine drivers to take pole here since 2012, only one has lost out on the win on merit.

In all likelihood, whoever takes pole position on Saturday will be the one to win on Sunday. Everything we know about the Ferrari from this season, and races in Monaco over the last decade, suggest it will be Leclerc.    

Pick: Charles Leclerc - Fastest qualification and race win (+110 at bet365)

Top-6 finish pick 

While the results of free practice moved odds drastically in unfavorable ways for some plays (Sebastian Vettel's odds for a Top-10 finish shifted from +250 to -110, for example), it's moved favorably elsewhere. 

The favorable shifts include Valtteri Bottas, whose Top-6 finish was priced at -150 and now sits at +110, after he was unable to run in FP1 and then was just 13th in FP2. An underwhelming Friday is not nearly enough for us to fade Bottas at plus-money here.

Bottas' Alfa Romeo has exceeded expectations race-in, race-out this season, but similar to its engine provider, Ferrari, it excels the most in circuits where downforce is king. We saw that in Melbourne, when Bottas finished eighth after qualifying 12th, Miami, when Bottas was running fifth for most of the race until a mistake dropped him to seventh, and in Spain, when he finished sixth from seventh.

Barcelona, in particular, is instructive in relation to Monaco, with its third sector being a good indicator of performance here. In that regard, betting on improved times from Bottas and Alfa Romeo for the rest of the weekend would be wise, as Alfa Romeo was the third-quickest car in the final sector of Barcelona during qualifying last weekend.

The weekend got off to a rough start for Bottas and Alfa Romeo but there's reason to bet on a better Saturday and Sunday, and by doing so we can get strong value. 

Pick: Valtteri Bottas - Top-6 finish (+110 at bet365)

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo