The first of three sprint races on the F1 calendar in 2022 took place this weekend at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, with a 21-lap race on Saturday setting the grid for Sunday's Imola GP.
Red Bull's Max Verstappen took pole during Friday's qualifying session and maintained that starting spot, albeit with a tough fight from Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, to enter Sunday as the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix odds favorite.
With so little between the two frontrunners during the 21-lap sprint race, we're ducking the race-winner market but still bringing you our Emilia Romagna Grand Prix picks and predictions, with lights out on April 24.
Emilia Romagna Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-sprint race picks
Pre-sprint race predictions
Picks made on 4/22/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Emilia Romagna GP picks (post-sprint race)
Both cars podium finish
If you tuned into our pre-sprint race picks, you'll have gotten a jump on the Sergio Perez podium market which was priced at +120 after he qualified seventh on Friday. That now sits at -138 after he made up four places during Saturday's sprint race to put himself on the second row, in third, ahead of Sunday's grand prix. While that's still not a bad price, we can get a bit more value by taking both Red Bulls to finish on the podium at +125.
With Max Verstappen starting on pole and seemingly a lock to finish first or second barring more reliability issues, it's going to come down to the battle for third between Perez and Ferrari's Carlos Sainz. Both drivers made up a ton of ground in Saturday's sprint race but Perez should have the edge.
Perez was primed to out-qualify Sainz on merit before the Spaniard crashed out and a red flag sabotaged Perez's fast lap (more on that below). That pace advantage carried into Saturday, where Perez was second-quickest in FP2 and roughly 0.7 seconds quicker overall than sixth-fastest Sainz and again had a pace advantage over the Ferrari driver as both charged up the grid during the sprint race.
Add in Perez's track position to start the race, with the Mexican arguably the most difficult driver on the grid to overtake, and it's difficult to see how Sainz will play spoiler to Red Bull's double podium on Sunday.
Pick: Red Bull - Double podium finish (+125 at bet365)
Points finish
Many pointed to the rain picking up again during a stoppage in Q2 on Friday as a cruel twist of fate for Mercedes, with neither Lewis Hamilton nor George Russell posting a time on slicks and thus left outside the Top 10. However, it may have just saved the dominant team from embarrassment, as neither driver was a sure thing to make Q3 even in ideal circumstances. The porpoising which has caused so many problems for the team this year has been even worse in Italy, with team principal Toto Wolff saying the drivers were having to lift off the throttle in the start/finish straight in order to mitigate the issue.
An already difficult season for Merc and its drivers has reached a nadir in Imola, with the car woefully uncompetitive around this circuit.
So, we're going to fade the struggling team and its lead driver here, taking Hamilton to finish outside the points (Top 10) at +175. It quickly went from bad to worse for Hamilton during Saturday's sprint race, as he dropped to 15th from 13th and ended up gaining just one of those spots, so he will start Sunday in 14th. Taking a look at the field ahead of him, there isn't exactly an easy overtake, leaving him with a challenge to crack the points.
In 13th is Sebastian Vettel, whose Aston Martin uses the same Mercedes power as Hamilton and was lapping at over a full tenth of a second quicker than Hamilton in qualifying. In 12th is Yuki Tsunoda, whose Red Bull power train is vastly superior to Hamilton's Mercedes — and Tsunoda overtook him during the sprint race. Then in 11th, there's Hamilton's teammate Russell, who has been quicker than Hamilton in each session this weekend. And, finally, in 10th is Mick Schumacher, whose Ferrari engine is superior to Mercedes, and he was lapping quicker during the sprint race despite being on the wrong tire compound (mediums) which cost both him and teammate Kevin Magnussen.
Hamilton remaining outside the points is hardly a lock but at +175, too much deference is being given to the GOAT.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton - No points finish (+175 at bet365)
Emilia Romagna GP predictions (pre-sprint race)
Top-6 sprint race finish
After a chaotic qualifying session, in which there were five different red flags, we were left with a mixed up first three rows with five different teams represented. The only team to have both drivers inside the Top 6 is McLaren, who enjoyed its first positive grand prix in Australia the last time out and again appear to have pace in Imola with Lando Norris qualifying third and Daniel Ricciardo sixth.
Despite Ricciardo's place inside the Top 6 to start tomorrow's sprint race, he sits at +100 with the seventh-best odds of finishing there on Saturday. While there will be fierce competition around him for a spot in the first three rows, including from Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz behind him, there are a couple reasons to trust Ricciardo to maintain his Top-6 position into Sunday's feature race.
The first is that the sprint race has been good to Ricciardo in its brief history, as an event that has typically rewarded the grid's best pure drivers, of which Ricciardo is one. Last year's sprint races saw him gain one place at Silverstone in a fifth-place finish and two at Monza (in a race he would win on Sunday) in a third-place finish.
The second is that, again, the McLaren appears to have genuine pace here. Norris and Ricciardo both qualified in the Top 10 in all three sessions, with Norris replicating his P3 finish in Q2 and Ricciardo replicating his P6 finish in Q1. In a brief 21-lap race, Ricciardo and McLaren should have the pace to maintain their position and secure a place in the first three rows for Sunday.
Pick: Daniel Ricciardo - Top-6 sprint race finish (+100 at bet365)
Podium finish
It was a hard-luck finish to qualifying for Red Bull's Sergio Perez, who will start the sprint race in seventh after finishing Q1 in fifth and Q2 in fourth. While the constant yellow and red flags, as well as off-and-on rain, impacted the entire field, few drivers were as hard done by as Perez.
Twice Perez was in the middle of a lap that had seen him post a purple (quickest overall) sector or mini sector when a red flag occurred, forcing him to abandon his lap. While his abandoned lap in Q3, after Kevin Magnussen went off the track, wasn't going to be quick enough to take pole it would have seen him finish in the Top 3. Instead, he had to settle for seventh, but he'll have plenty of time to make up ground to earn a podium finish on Sunday.
Both Perez's pace and the pace of Red Bull (his teammate Max Verstappen took pole) would indicate the team has at least the second-quickest car on the grid this weekend. Perez should be able to pick up positions in Saturday's sprint race to position himself well for a podium finish Sunday. If the team's qualifying pace carries into Saturday, this is as good as the price will get on a Perez podium finish all weekend.
Pick: Sergio Perez - Podium finish (+120 at bet365)
