Week 16 in the CFL kicks off on Friday night with the Montreal Alouettes hosting the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium.
The Tiger-Cats are coming off their biggest win of the season but enter this contest as slim 2.5-point road underdogs against an Als team fresh off a bye. Despite both of these teams sitting at least two games below .500, both are still very much in playoff contention thanks to a weak East Division.
Here are my best CFL picks and predictions for Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes on September 23.
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes picks and predictions
Last week, the Ticats showed what they are capable of by putting up 424 yards and 48 points against Winnipeg's elite stop-unit. Now, Dane Evans & co. take on a Montreal defense that surrendered 303 passing yards to Hamilton backup quarterback Matthew Shiltz a month ago.
Evans has been turning the ball over way too much this season, but his problems seemed to be a blend of psychological and physical (as he was playing through a shoulder injury). Both factors appeared to turn the corner last week, and he's still a quarterback that averages 280 passing yards per game and matches up against a Montreal stop-unit that seldom forces turnovers.
Sure, the Als are coming off a game where they forced four turnovers against the Lions. However, that was a BC offense with Antonio Pipkin under center, and their task will be much tougher against Hamilton.
The Als have some key absences in their secondary, with starting safety Marc-Antoine Dequoy joining All-Star defensive back Greg Reid (who has missed virtually the entire season with a knee injury), and starting halfback Najee Murray on the sidelines.
Expect the Ticats momentum on offense to continue and take Over 24.5 on their team total.
My best bet: Tiger-Cats Team Total Over 24.5 (-110 at bet365)
Tiger-Cats at Alouettes betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Tiger-Cats desperately needed a win last week and managed to beat the Blue Bombers 48-31 as six-point pups at Tim Horton's Field. It was easily the most impressive performance of the year for the Ticats, who came into the season as a Grey Cup contender but have stumbled to a 4-9 start.
Dane Evans threw for 327 yards and five touchdowns, and the Ticats added another 97 yards on the ground against a Winnipeg defense that has allowed the fewest points per game in the CFL.
Ironically, these two squads with losing records are the only teams to have beaten the Grey Cup favorite Bombers this season.
The Alouettes are coming off a bye and have won three of their last four games, most recently defeating the Lions 31-10 two weeks ago. That stretch began with an upset win against the Bombers in Week 10 and was followed by a 29-28 victory on August 20.
That was a back-and-forth battle between these teams, with both offenses holding on to the ball and throwing for more than 300 yards as the Als won on a 48-yard field goal as time expired. These teams also faced off in Week 8 in Hamilton, with the Ticats taking a 24-6 lead into the fourth quarter and holding on for a 7-point victory.
The Als are seventh in the league in net offense with 329.7 yards per game. They rank fourth in the league in net defense (347.5 ypg) and have been terrible against the run, surrendering 5.2 yards per carry and 105.8 ypg (both numbers are second-worst in the league).
The Ticats are a respectable fourth in the league in net offense (351.2 ypg) and third in net defense (339.8 ypg). Their poor record has been largely due to a league-worst minus-20 turnover margin, with Evans usually the culprit.
Over/Under analysis
The Ticats are eighth in the league in scoring defense, allowing 27.8 points per game, while the Als are seventh with 26.8 ppg. That said, Hamilton's scoring defense has been hindered by poor field positioning (and defensive touchdowns) thanks to sloppy turnovers from its offense.
Neither team has been getting any pressure from the edge, with both squads tied for second-last in the league with 29 sacks. Both defenses rely on the interior of their line and blitzes to pressure opposing passers, which leads to gaps in the back end.
That has led to the Tabbies allowing a league-high 24 passing completions of 30-plus yards and Montreal ranking last in the league in opponent second-down conversion rate.
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes game info
• Location: Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, QC
• Date: Friday, September 23, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Dylan Wynn DT (Out), Lemar Durant WR (Doubtful), Tunde Adeleke DB (Questionable), Ciante Evans DB (Out), Alex Fontana C (Out), Simoni Lawrence LB (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Matt Shiltz QB (Out), Chris Van Zeyl T (Out), Lawrence Woods III DB/KR (Out).
Alouettes: Marc-Antoine Dequoy DB (Out), Philippe Gagnon G (Questionable), William Stanback RB (Out), Greg Reid DB (Out), Najee Murray HB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes weather
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Alouettes' last six home games. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes.
