The 2022 CFL regular season wraps up on Saturday night with the Calgary Stampeders welcoming the Saskatchewan Roughriders to McMahon Stadium. Neither team has much to play for in this rematch from last week with the Stamps looking forward to the West Division semifinal next weekend and the Riders poised to pack up their lockers for an early offseason.
CFL betting lines opened with the Stampeders as 5.5-point home favorites for this Week 21 showdown. Here are my best Roughriders vs. Stampeders CFL betting picks and predictions on October 29.
Roughriders vs Stampeders best odds
Roughriders vs Stampeders picks and predictions
It can be argued that the Stampeders should be faded in this spot since they have virtually nothing to play for and don't want to risk injuries before next week's playoff road date with the Lions. That said, they also didn't have anything to play for last week and still cruised to a 32-21 win on the road at Mosaic.
The Roughriders' season was on the line in that game but they didn't seem to care, and even benched veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo in favor of untested sophomore Mason Fine. With that loss, the Riders are officially eliminated and will find it tough to find motivation on Saturday after what has been a very disappointing season.
The Stamps might choose to rest a few key players this weekend. but considering that backup QB Bo Levi Mitchell is a two-time MOP winner and backup running back Dedrick Mills has cracked the 100-yard mark twice this season (including 103 yards on 17 carries last week), they should be just fine. I'll lay the points with the home side against a Saskatchewan squad that has likely mentally checked out.
My best bet: Stampeders -5 (-105 at bet365)
Roughriders vs Stampeders spread analysis
The Stamps are 11-6 straight up this season, with all of their defeats coming by fewer than three points or on the final possession of the game. Jake Maier took over for Mitchell midseason and anchored an offense that led the league with 30.9 points per game.
The defense was also impressive and is third in the league with 22.8 ppg allowed despite three contests against the high-powered Blue Bombers, and an early-season shootout against the Lions when they had record-breaking QB Nathan Rourke.
The Riders were officially eliminated from the playoffs after their loss last week and now sit at 6-11 SU (7-10 ATS) on the season. They appeared to throw in the towel even before that game by announcing that 25-year-old Mason Fine and his 51 career pass attempts in the CFL would start over Fajardo. Sure, Fajardo was inconsistent this season, but he's experienced and Saskatchewan's awful offensive line hadn't done him any favors.
That line has allowed a league-worst 71 sacks (a whopping 18 more than second-worst Edmonton) and wasn't any better in front of Fine. He ate dirt five times and ended up passing for just 196 yards in that loss.
As we outlined above, even if Calgary chooses to rest players, they have the depth to not miss a beat. Ka'Deem Carey leads the league with 1,088 rushing yards but the dropoff from him to backups Mills and Peyton Logan isn't much. The biggest strength of the Stamps' stop unit has been their pass rush and they have a terrific rotation of four defensive ends that can get to the QB.
As far as the secondary and wide receiver corps goes, the Stamps have been pretty banged up in those areas so they can't really dig any deeper on their depth chart. Matter of fact, wide receivers Kamar Jorden and Luther Hakunavanhu, along with defensive backs Titus Wall and Natrell Jamerson, practiced in full on Tuesday after missing significant time with injuries. The Stamps will likely look to give those guys some snaps on Saturday so they aren't immediately thrown into the fire of a playoff game.
Roughriders vs Stampeders Over/Under analysis
Something needed to be changed for a sputtering Saskatchewan offense that ranked last in the league in second-down conversion rate (39.9%) and average yards per play (5.7). That said, making the QB change at this point in the season was pretty pointless and as we saw last week, Fine isn't an upgrade.
Calgary's defense is first in the CFL in opponent second-down conversion rate (42.2%) and sacks (50). That makes it perfectly built to exploit the weaknesses in Saskatchewan's attack. Add in the Stamps' ability to force turnovers and the Riders' tendency to kill their own drives with penalties, and I have a tough time seeing Saskatchewan move the chains here.
The Riders' defense might not have too much success either. While they were stingy earlier in the season, they massively regressed over the last couple of months with the absence of Anthony Lanier affecting their ability to get pressure up the middle.
Roughriders vs Stampeders trend to know
The Stampeders are 8-8-1 ATS this season. Find more CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Stampeders.
Roughriders vs Stampeders game info
| Location: | McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, October 29, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Roughriders vs Stampeders key injuries
Roughriders: Mike Edem S (Out), Anthony Lanier II DT (Questionable), Amari Henderson DB (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Questionable), Nick Marshall DB (Questionable), Demarcus Christmas DT (Out), Charleston Hughes DE (Questionable), Kienan Lafrance RB (Questionable), Justin McInnis WR (Questionable), Duke Williams WR (Out), Frankie Hickson RB (Out), Micah Teitz LB (Out).
Stampeders: Questionable), Forlarin Orimolade DE (Out), Kamar Jordan WR (Questionable), Brad Muhammad DB (Questionable), Elie Bouka DB (Questionable), Derek Dennis LT (Out) Tre Roberson CB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Roughriders vs Stampeders weather
