The Ottawa Redblacks and Montreal Alouettes face off in Week 18 of CFL action on Thanksgiving Monday.
Montreal can clinch a playoff spot and home-field advantage in the first round with a win, while Ottawa is merely looking to end their season on a positive note after firing head coach Paul LaPolice.
The Redblacks upset the Als in Montreal last month, but oddsmakers expect a different result this time as CFL betting lines opened with the Als as 6.5-point home favorites.
Here are my best free Redblacks vs. Alouettes CFL picks and predictions for October 10.
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Redblacks vs Alouettes best odds
Redblacks vs Alouettes picks and predictions
Teams can sometimes experience a short-term boost after the much-needed departure of a coach like LaPolice, who had clearly lost the locker room a long time ago.
For that reason, I'm reluctant to lay this many points with the Alouettes, regardless of how important this game is to them. Instead of playing a side, I'd rather bet the Over 47.5, given how inconsistent both teams have been on defense.
Ottawa quarterback Nick Arbuckle has been up-and-down, but even in last week's loss to BC, he threw for 363 yards. With quarterbacks coach Will Arndt taking over the playcalling duties for the Redblacks, there should be continuity when it comes to their offense. The fact that they have nothing to play for could also result in some more downfield looks.
Meanwhile, the Als' offense has been more efficient lately, with QB Trevor Harris starting to gel with their new play-caller (and former Alouettes legend) Anthony Calvillo, who took over in July.
Montreal's ground game has also been churning out yards with RBs Jeshrun Antwi and Walter Fletcher. The Alouettes could also soon get back All-Star William Stanback, who has been practicing in full for the first time since breaking his ankle in Week 1.
My best bet: Over 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Redblacks vs Alouettes spread analysis
The Alouettes have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games, with that lone loss during that span coming against the Redblacks in Week 13. Giveaways were the difference maker in that contest, with Ottawa's offense not turning the ball over once while the Als threw two interceptions and had a pair of fumbles.
Since that defeat, Montreal has won three in a row, most recently beating the Elks 25-18 last Saturday. Another win would clinch a playoff spot for the 7-7 Alouettes, who trail the Argos by just one game in the East.
The Als canned their own coach after a 1-3 start and have gradually looked better on both sides of the ball. Despite surrendering 38 points to the Redblacks five weeks ago, Montreal has allowed just 21.2 ppg in its last six games.
Since upsetting the Als in Week 13, the Redblacks have dropped three in a row and are fresh off a 34-19 loss to the Lions. That was the nail in the coffin for LaPolice, who had led them to a disappointing 3-11 record for the second season in a row.
The Redblacks' offense will likely be led by Arbuckle until the end of the season (with Caleb Evans getting some snaps), and regardless of who has been under center, they have struggled to finish drives. Ottawa is last in the league with 20.2 points per game, although the Redblacks rank fourth in yards per game.
Despite a strong pass rush, Ottawa's defense has also struggled, allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt in the league (8.4) while also getting gashed for 5.2 yards per carry on the ground.
Redblacks vs Alouettes Over/Under analysis
The total for this game opened at 49.5 but has ticked down to 47.5, which is a bit puzzling when you consider how their previous two meetings this season went.
Last month they combined for 838 yards of offense and 62 points. In Week 7, the Alouettes won a 40-33 shootout, with the two sides totaling 928 yards.
Neither of these defenses has been able to stop the run, with the Als ranking dead-last in the league with 5.23 ypc allowed and the Redblacks only marginally better at 5.18.
Montreal has been slightly better in pass coverage on the year but struggled when facing Ottawa, giving up more than 300 yards through the air on both occasions.
Both secondaries have also been getting burned deep, with the Alouettes surrendering the third-most completions of 30-plus yards in the league and the Redblacks second-last in that dubious category.
Redblacks vs Alouettes trend to know
The Redblacks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Montreal. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Alouettes.
Redblacks vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Monday, October 10, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Alouettes key injuries
Redblacks: DeVonte Williams RB (Questionable), Davon Coleman (Questionable), Frankie Griffen LB (Questionable), Ucambre Williams OT (Questionable), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Kwaku Boateng DE (Out), Nate Behar WR (Out), Justin Howell LB (Out).
Alouettes: William Stanback RB (Questionable), Greg Reid DB (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out), Nick Usher DE (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Redblacks vs Alouettes weather
