Two winless teams try to get their CFL season on track on Canada Day as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the Edmonton Elks.
It's not a big surprise for the rebuilding Elks, who entered the season with low expectations, however, Hamilton was expected to be a Grey Cup contender and oddsmakers expect the Ticats to take this Week 4 matchup with CFL betting odds opening with them as 6.5-point home favourites.
Here are our best free Elks vs. Tiger-Cats picks and predictions for Friday, July 1.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line for this game hit the board with the Ticats installed at -6.5 with the Over/Under at 46.5. As of Tuesday afternoon, the line has started to creep up to -7 at some books while the total has stayed steady.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats Week 4 predictions
- Prediction: Tiger-Cats -6.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110)
- Best bet: 1H Tiger-Cats -3.5 (-116)
Predictions made on 6/28/2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats game info
• Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON
• Date: Friday, July 1, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Elks at Tiger-Cats betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Elks: Enock Makonzo DB (Questionable), Nyles Morgan LB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Duron Carter S (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Don Jackson RB (Questionable), Brandon Revenberg OG (Questionable), Cariel Brooks DB (Out), Alex Fontana C (Out), Lemar Durant WR (Out), Coulter Woodmansey OL (Out), Kyle Saxelid OL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Tiger-Cats.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Elks opened the season with an ugly 59-15 beatdown at the hands of the Lions before losing by double digits to the Roughriders in Week 2. Last week, they went into McMahon Stadium as 9.5-point pups and had a 17-13 lead until late in the third quarter, before losing by a final score of 30-23.
The Tiger-Cats entered this season looking to bounce back from a bitter overtime loss in the Grey Cup at home last season. They were expected to challenge for the Cup again, but a tough early-season schedule has resulted in an 0-3 straight up and ATS mark.
Inconsistency on offense and poor play in crunch time has been the biggest flaws for Hamilton. The Ticats were in a tight defensive battle on the road in Regina in their season opener before the Riders separated in the fourth quarter. In Week 2, they squandered a 24-3 halftime lead against the Stampeders to lose in overtime, and last week, they once again fell apart in the second half, this time against the Blue Bombers.
One positive takeaway from Hamilton's early-season play has been its defense, which at times has looked terrific. Although quarterback Dane Evans needs to cut down on his interceptions, he's at least a proven veteran while Edmonton will be giving Canadian rookie Tre Ford his first pro start.
Hearing from multiple sources that the #Elks are expected to start @treford_1 at QB this week vs #TiCats
— Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) June 30, 2022
Also hearing that #Bombers rec Nic Demski is expected to miss a couple of games (ankle). @CFLonTSN @TSN_Sports @TSN_Edge pic.twitter.com/eWjfoCeyIe
Evans shredded the Stamps through the air in Week 2 and should be able to exploit a banged-up Elks secondary that has looked very vulnerable.
With the exception of last week's competitive tilt against their rivals, the Elks have looked awful this year. Although the Ticats haven't been able to put together a full game, they have looked like a good team in spurts, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
That advantage, along with the home-field edge, has me putting my money on Hamilton before this spread creeps above a touchdown.
Prediction: Tiger-Cats -6.5 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Both of these offenses need to get much better at holding on to the ball.
The Elks have some talented weapons on offense but they haven't been executing and their line has struggled. That's a big reason why they are opting to go with Ford at QB often the turnover-prone Arbuckle.
While Ford is a dynamic athlete who won the Hec Crighton Award last year and runs a 4.45 40-yard dash, he's also very green, and the number of home-grown Canadian pivots that have been successful have been few and far between.
Ford will be thrown into the fire against a Ticats defense that is still capable of being one of the best in the CFL.
Hamilton allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.4) in the league last year and was expected to be just as good this year, after returning virtually the same unit and adding three-time All-Star Micah Johnson at defensive tackle.
While that stop-unit has been broken down at times this season, they should be able to pressure Ford and force him into mistakes. That said, Evans might be under pressure himself, with Hamilton's beat-up offensive line struggling to protect him with several starters on the IL.
With the Under 16-7 in the Tiger-Cats' last 23 games overall, that's the direction I'm betting on Canada Day — especially with wet and windy weather possible in the forecast.
Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Both of these teams are looking for their first win but Hamilton is clearly the better squad on paper and when watching the tape.
The Ticats have also been playing extremely well on defense, especially in the first half of games, where they are allowing just 7.7 ppg. Look for them to jump out to a big start at home against a rookie QB and back them on the first-half spread.
Pick: Tiger-Cats first half -3.5 (-116 at BetRegal)
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