Week 13 in the CFL wraps up on Monday with a Labour Day showdown between the Edmonton Elks and Calgary Stampeders.
This is the biggest spread on the CFL betting board since Week 3, but it makes sense with the Stamps clobbering the Elks 49-6 when these teams previously clashed in July.
However, rivalry games can often have unpredictable results and the Elks upset the Stamps at McMahon Stadium during last year's Labour Day Classic. Can the Elks pull off another shocker? I let you know with my best free Elks vs. Stampeders CFL picks and predictions for September 5.
Elks vs Stampeders odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Calgary opened as a -12.5 favorite at most books, and remains there as of writing. the total has seen movement in both directions after opening around 49.5, and also remains there, with a few dangling 50.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Elks vs Stampeders Week 13 predictions
Predictions made on 9/1/2022 at 4 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Elks vs Stampeders game info
• Location: McMahon Stadium, Calgary, Alberta
• Date: Monday, September 5, 2022
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Elks at Stampeders betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Elks: Kenny Lawler WR (Out), Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Makana Henry DT (Questionable), Tony Washington OT (Out), Tre Ford QB (Out), Tre Watson LB (Out), Aaron Grymes S (Out), Christian Rector DT (Out), James Wilder Jr. RB (Out).
Stampeders: Titus Wall DB (Out), Branden Dozier DB (Questionable), Tre Roberson CB (Out), Ryan Sceviour G (Questionable), Darius Williams DB (Questionable), Sean McEwen C (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Elks are 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Stampeders are 5-1 ATS versus teams below .500. Find more CFL betting trends for Elk vs. Stampeders.
Elks vs Stampeders picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Sometimes a loss can feel like a win, and with the Stampeders heading to IG Field last week and coming away with a close 31-29 defeat, they'll likely have plenty of confidence. Not only is Winnipeg one of the toughest venues to play in, but quarterback Jake Maier completed 23 of 28 passes for 294 yards and three scores against the league's best defense.
Maier had been sharp over the last two years when subbing in for an injured Bo Levi Mitchell, but that was the first time he was actually ahead of the former MOP winner on the depth chart, and he's expected to start again. Calgary's ground game was also very effective in that contest and is now second in the league in rushing yards per game (109.2) while ranking first in yards per carry (5.8).
Expect the Stamps to move the ball at ease against a terrible Edmonton defense that ranks last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (116.8) and yards allowed per pass (9.4).
The Elks haven't been any better on offense, where they rank last in the league in yards per play. They'll be even worse on that side of the ball with superstar wideout Kenny Lawler expected to miss the next few weeks with an ankle injury.
Their second-leading receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux had just been placed on the six-game IR and now he'll be joined by Lawler, who led the league in receiving yards with Winnipeg last year and is tied for second in yards this season and has kept them in games despite mediocre play at QB.
12.5 points seems like a lot of chalk to swallow in a rivalry game, but the Elks don't have the firepower to keep pace with Calgary's high-powered offense — especially with Lawler sidelined.
Prediction: Stampeders -12.5 (-105 at BetRegal)
Over/Under analysis
The total is tough to handicap because, while the Stamps should be able to put up plenty of points against Edmonton's porous defense, Edmonton will likely struggle to move the chains without any play-makers on offense.
Ultimately, I'll lean towards the Calgary offense in this one. Maier looks like the real deal and the Stamps would likely be more likely to take their foot off the pedal if they had Mitchell under center, but the younger QB is more aggressive downfield.
Running back Ka'Deem Carey also returned to Calgary's lineup last week and flashed while top receiver Malik Henry also came off the IL to catch seven passes for 122 yards and three scores. And while the Stamps defense is a respectable fifth in the league with 6.3 yards per play allowed, the fast pace of their offense has resulted in them allowing a league-high 371 yards per game.
Betting trends also strongly point towards this matchup going above the total. The Elks are 6-1 O/U in their last seven games on the road while the Over has cashed in four straight home contests for the Stamps. The Over is also 5-0 in the last five meetings between these rivals.
Prediction: Over 49.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
I mentioned that the Stamps have the better aerial attack and ground game while also defending better against the run and pass. However, those aren't the only areas where there is a massive disparity between these teams.
The Elks are one of the league's most penalized teams, while the well-disciplined Stamps are among the least. Calgary also has a league-best plus-11 turnover ratio while Edmonton is second from the bottom at minus-10. If that wasn't enough, the Elks are also the worst team in the CFL on special teams, ranking last in the league in punt and kickoff return average while their coverage unit has surrendered a league-high nine big play returns.
I'm surprised that the Elks even have three wins given how awful they've been across the board, and head coach Chris Jones seems content to shuffle players in and out of the lineup as he tinkers in a rebuilding year.
Although the Elks kept things relatively close against Calgary in Week 3 (losing 30-23) they were outgained 437-290 in that contest and had a massive performance from the now-injured Arceneaux. With no weapons on this Edmonton roster, I'm expecting a lopsided beatdown more in line with the Stamps rout in Week 5.
Pick: Stampeders -12.5 (-105 at BetRegal)
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