Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Newman doesn't have to play hero

With ugly quarterback play from Dane Evans, Hamilton's been giving away games all too often. But with a new quarterback getting the start on Labour Day against the Argonauts is there value in backing a strong Tiger-Cats squad?

Sep 5, 2022 • 11:36 ET • 4 min read

It's Labour Day on Monday but it feels more like Groundhog Day for CFL bettors with the Toronto Argonauts and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats clashing for the fourth time in the last five weeks.

The Argos took two contests in Toronto, while the Ti-Cats won at Tim Hortons Field in Week 10. With the series heading back to Hamilton for Week 13, the Tabbies are slim 2-point underdogs faves with rookie Jamie Newman at quarterback.

Here are our best free Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats CFL picks and predictions for September 5.

Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Ti-Cats at -1.5 with the Over/Under at 49.5. As of Friday afternoon, you could still get the same lines at most books but some have shifted the spread to Hamilton -1 with the total up to 50.5. 

On Sunday Hamilton revealed its depth chart for the game and rookie Jamie Newman was installed as the starter with Dane Evans at No. 3. This caused the line to jump the fence with the Argos now 2-point faves and the total moved back to the opening number of 49.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats Week 13 predictions

Predictions made on 9/5/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats game info

Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON
Date: Monday, September 5, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Argonauts at Tiger-Cats betting preview

Weather

Key injuries

Argonauts: Andrew Harris RB (Out), Peter Nicastro CB (Out), Isiah Cage OT (Out), Chris Edwards DB (Questionable), Robert Priester DB (Questionable), Trevon Tate OT (Out), (Questionable), Shaquille Richardson DB (Out), Eric Rogers WR (Out).

Tiger-Cats: Matthew Shiltz QB (Out), Alden Darby DB (Questionable), Simoni Lawrence LB (Out), Ciante Evans DB (Out), Lawrence Woods KR/DB (Out), Chris Van Zeyl OT (Out), Alex Fontana C (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the Tiger-Cats' last six home games while going 6-2 in the Argonauts' previous eight contests on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats.

Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Tiger-Cats lost 37-20 last week despite outgaining the Argos 452-301. That was largely due to giving the ball away, with quarterback Dane Evans throwing three interceptions (including a pick-six) and losing a fumble. 

That's been the story of the season for the Ti-Cats, who are a Top-3 team in net offense and net defense but have a 3-8 record thanks to a league-worst turnover margin of minus-21. Just to show you how bad that number is, the Elks have the second-worst turnover margin at minus-10.

Evans had been the biggest culprit, with 13 interceptions and seven fumbles (six lost) in nine games. Although Evans practiced last week despite an ongoing shoulder injury, he won't play in this contest with head coach Orlondo Steinauer saying, "I wouldn't say there's a zero percent chance but if he could really play, he'd be up."

With reliable backup Matthew Shiltz sidelined with a wrist injury that gives the starting job to rookie Jamie Newman and flipped the line to favor the Argos. While Newman is an untested 24-year-old with just two pro passes to his name, he might be a better fit than this line is giving him credit for. 

Keep in mind that he came in to spell Shiltz in Week 10 against the Argos and rushed for 55 yards and a score to help the Ti-Cats win. While most CFL quarterbacks were studs at smaller and non-FBS schools, Newman tore it up in the ACC for Wake Forest.

Newman completed 61% of his passes for 2,868 yards and 26 touchdowns with another 574 yards and six scores on the ground as a junior in 2019. Then transferred to Georgia for 2020 where he was going to be Heisman darkhorse but opted out due to the pandemic. 

He's a big and mobile quarterback with a strong arm and a high IQ. And the Ti-Cats won't need him to play hero with his arm, just make smart reads and not make costly mistakes as Evans has been.

The Tabbies lineup is better than Toronto's especially in the trenches and in the secondary where the Boatmen are extremely banged up. As long as Newman provides stability, I think the Ti-Cats hold on to cover after collapsing in the second half in each of their previous two defeats to the Argos. 

Prediction: Tiger-Cats +2 (-105 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Although the spread moved three points with the news that Newman would take over, the total only ticked down by a single point.

That's interesting because while I'm optimistic about Newman's talent, I think Hamilton will employ a more conservative playbook with the rookie under center and won't attack vertically as much.

The Ti-Cats defense is very good, especially on the defensive line where they should be able to exploit a banged-up Argos line that hasn't been able to pass block on the edge. 

As good as the Ti-Cats defense is on paper, the team has been allowing 27.5 points per game because costly turnovers have given opposing offenses a short field to work with.

However, I'm expecting more ball security from Newman which should not only slow down Hamilton's offense but limit Toronto's scoring chances as well.

Prediction: Under 49.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The Argos are on top of the East Division but it's with a middling 5-5 record and they have plenty of flaws. They have been decimated by injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary while prized free-agent signing Andrew Harris is done for the year with a pec injury.

They have also arguably been outplayed by the Ti-Cats in their wins against them this year but benefitted from some brutal mistakes from Evans. Newman won't be expected to carry the team, just not lose the game for them, and that puts value on Hamilton with the line moving against them. 

Prediction: Tiger-Cats moneyline (+115 at bet365)

CFL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s CFL Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our CFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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