Week 7 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with the Saskatchewan Roughriders hosting the Toronto Argonauts in the second leg of a home-and-home series. The first game took place in Wolfville, Nova Scotia last week, with the Argos winning a 30-24 thriller.
CFL betting lines for the rematch originally opened with the Riders as 6.5-point home favourites but have since shortened to as low as -1 after the Roughriders had a COVID-19 outbreak, which postponed this game to Sunday.
Here are our best free Argonauts vs. Roughriders picks and predictions for July 24.
Argonauts vs Roughriders odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Riders as high as -6.5 but moved all the way down to -2.5 by Thursday morning after news of a COVID-19 outbreak on the Riders as well as an injury to starting quarterback Cody Fajardo.
Most books pulled the odds immediately following the news that the game would be moved to Sunday and when the line reopened it was at Riders -1.5 before shortening to -1. The total has ticked down from 47 to 46.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Argonauts vs Roughriders Week 7 predictions
Predictions made on 7/22/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Argonauts vs Roughriders game info
• Location: Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Argonauts at Roughriders betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Argonauts: Dariusz Bladek OL (Questionable), Royce Metchie DB (Questionable), Peter Nicastro C (Out), Eric Rogers WR (Out), Juwan Brescanin WR (Out).
Roughriders: Cody Fajardo QB (Out), Duke Williams WR (Out), Garrett Marino DT (Out), Pete Robertson DE (Out), Darnell Sankey LB (Questionable), AC Leonard DE (Questionable), Terran Vaughn OT (Questionable), Nick Marshall (Questionable), Kyran Moore (Questionable), Mason Fine QB (Questionable), Mitchell Picton WR (Questionable), Justin McInnis WR (Questionable), Charbel Dabire DT (Questionable), Shaq Evans WR (Out), Dan Clark C (Out), Micah Teitz LB (Out), Godfrey Onyeka DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in the Roughriders' last nine games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Roughriders.
Argonauts vs Roughriders picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Argonauts won as 2.5-point pups in Nova Scotia last Saturday, with a 50-yard interception return from Wynton McManis allowing them to pull ahead with just two minutes left in the game.
Oddsmakers expected the Riders to bounce back earlier this week when the line hit the board with Saskatchewan installed as almost a touchdown fave at home. That changed in a heartbeat after reports came out that 13 Roughrider players and five members of the coaching staff tested positive for COVID-19.
With the game being pushed back to Sunday and the possibility that some of those guys will be good to go, I would be hesitant to put too much stock in that situation with so much uncertainty. However, while we don't know which players will test negative by Sunday, we do know that third-string quarterback Jake Dolegala will get the start under center.
BREAKING: Riders name Jake Dolegala starting QB for Week 7 after Cody Fajardo, Mason Fine miss practicehttps://t.co/MPiNZpKGCk
— 3DownNation (@3DownNation) July 21, 2022
(H/T @therealballsy)#CFL #Riders #RiderNation #BringIt #BEL13VE pic.twitter.com/350VplVYC4
The rookie out of Central Connecticut has never taken a snap in the CFL and will be a massive downgrade from Fajardo, who has been dealing with a lingering knee injury. He also won't have Saskatchewan's top wideout in Duke Williams, who was suspended following a pre-game altercation last week.
On the other side of the ball, the Riders' vaunted pass rush could be severely limited. Through the first five weeks of the season, Saskatchewan had ripped off a 4-1 record thanks in large part to a dominant pass rush that leads the CFL with 23 sacks — a whopping 10 more than second-place Montreal.
However, last week, the Riders were missing suspended defensive tackle Garret Marino and injured ends A.C. Leonard and Pete Robertson (the league leader in sacks with seven). That resulted in zero sacks against the Argos, which enabled McLeod Bethel-Thompson to complete 70.3% of his passes for 276 yards and a pair of scores.
Marino and Robertson will be out once again while Leonard is questionable, and if the Riders can't get pressure, their defense will have a tough time finding their usual success.
The Argos have a middling 2-2 record but they almost upset the unbeaten Blue Bombers in Week 4 and have the talent on both sides of the ball to win against a depleted Riders squad.
It's always tough to upset the same team in back-to-back weeks, especially with the rematch taking place in a hostile environment like Mosaic Stadium. But, this is no ordinary matchup, with the injuries to Saskatchewan's defensive line and a third-string QB as well as the COVID-19 outbreak.
Prediction: Argonauts moneyline (+100 at SportsInteraction)
Over/Under analysis
While the spread has shifted by 5.5 points, the total has ticked down by just half a point. That's a bit of a surprise, given that Saskatchewan is starting a third-string QB who doesn't have a single pass attempt as a pro.
We mentioned the suspension of Duke Williams, and the Riders were already missing All-Star receiver Shaq Evans, while three other projected starters in Kyran Moore (knee), Mitchell Picton (ankle), and Justin McInnis (COVID) are questionable. That should mean a big dip in offensive production from the Riders.
That said, the Argos are averaging just 18.8 points per game this season and they had a modest 22 points until that pick-six last week. Bethel-Thompson can be up-and-down and the Argos' return game has been lackluster.
Although the Riders' stop-unit won't be quite as dominant, since their line isn't at full strength, they still have the depth to help keep this game below the total.
Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
With Dolegala at the helm, the Riders' team total of 24 on Sunday seems like a lofty mark. Not only is he surrounded by a depleted WR corps, he will be moving his immobile 242-pound frame behind an offensive line that has allowed a league-worst 24 sacks.
Even with Fajardo, the Riders have had a tough time attacking deep and they'll need to be even more reliant on their strong running game, which should lead to a very conservative game plan from Saskatchewan coach Craig Dickenson.
While the Argos are second-last in the league with 384.5 yards per game allowed, that number is heavily inflated by their June 25 trip to BC, when they surrendered 583 yards to the Lions' high-octane offense.
In their other three games, they've limited foes to a much more impressive 318.3 ypg. Expect them to hold the Riders below their team total in this one.
Pick: Roughriders team total Under 24 (-108 at BetRegal)
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