Argonauts vs Elks Week 19 Picks and Predictions: Defense Keeps Things Honest

The Elks are not good and they haven't won at home since 2019. Still, they've played better in the season's second half than their record would indicate, which makes the Argos -6 line tough to swallow. Instead, the Under on the total is the right call.

Oct 14, 2022 • 15:43 ET • 4 min read

The Toronto Argonauts head to Commonwealth Stadium to face off against the Edmonton Elks in Week 19 of CFL action this Saturday.

The Argos could clinch first place in the East with a victory while the cellar-dwelling Elks are merely aiming to win a game in front of their home fans.

CFL betting lines have seen a lot of movement for Saturday's game with the Argos opening as 2.5-point favorites before that number moved to -6. Here are our best free Argonauts vs. Elks CFL betting picks and predictions for October 15. 

Argonauts vs Elks best odds

Argonauts vs Elks picks and predictions

I liked the Argos at under a field goal but with the line moving through that key number at -3 and all the way to -6, the value on the spread is long gone.

Instead, I'll take the Under 50.5 with how stingy the Argos have been on defense lately and how one-dimensional their offense has looked. 

Toronto has allowed just 18.2 points per game in its last five games and while the Argos gave up 29 points to the Stampeders two weeks ago, they limited quarterback Jake Maier to 175 passing yards and picked him off twice. Now they take on an Edmonton team that has been held below 20 points in back-to-back games with quarterback Taylor Cornelius struggling with accuracy.

Although the Elks were shredded by the Blue Bombers last week and by the Stampeders in Week 14, they've shown massive improvement on D during the second half of the season. In six of their last eight games, they have limited foes to fewer than 330 yards. 

Head coach Chris Jones is starting to shape the identity of this stop unit and he'll benefit from being able to match up against a Toronto offense that can't run the ball. 

My best bet: Under 50.5 (-106 at BetRegal)

Argonauts vs Elks spread analysis

The Argos are fresh off a hard-fought home win against the Lions and have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games. With a Montreal loss on Friday night, Toronto would clinch the East Division title and a first-round bye with a victory in Edmonton.  

Despite dealing with a plethora of injuries all year, the Boatmen will be playoff-bound thanks to QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson and a stout defense. That defense recently lost star linebacker Wynton McManis for the rest of the regular season but OLB is typically a position that isn't too tough to find replacements for. 

The Elks are coming off an ugly 48-11 loss to the Blue Bombers and have lost back-to-back contests after upsetting the Roughriders on the road in Week 15. 

The Argos lead the CFL in takeaways (41) and will look to take advantage of an Elks offense that's second last in the league with 44 turnovers. Edmonton's offense had briefly shown signs of life in September but Cornelius has regressed by throwing a pair of interceptions in Week 17 and completing just 11 of 24 passes last week. 

The Elks also don't have much of a home-field advantage at Commonwealth, having not won a game in Edmonton since 2019 while going 0-7 SU and ATS this season.

Argonauts vs Elks Over/Under analysis

The Under has gone 4-1 in the Argos' last five games and has also gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.

The Argos allow the fewest yards per pass attempt (7.8) in the league and have the lowest opponent pass efficiency rating (82.4). With a talented group of defensive backs led by Jamal Peters, the Boatmen should match up well against an Edmonton wide receiver corps that has some weapons even with Kenny Lawler done for the year. 

Although Toronto's defensive line hasn't generated much pressure this season, Ja'Gared Davis and Shawn Oakman are studs and should be able to have their way with a weak Edmonton offensive line.

However, Toronto's offensive line hasn't been much better with multiple starters spending most of the season on the IR, and the running game has been non-existent. A.J. Ouellete has carried the ball just 64 times for 276 yards (4.3 yards per carry) since taking over as the starting running back in Week 11.

That will make it tough for the Argos to take advantage of a terrible Elks run defense. That said, Edmonton has also struggled against the pass, allowing a league-worst 9.8 ypa. 

Another factor to consider when betting the total is special teams and these are the two worst teams in the league when it comes to both punt and kickoff returns.

Argonauts vs Elks trend to know

The Argonauts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record while the Elks are 1-5 ATS in their previous six contests versus teams with a winning record. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Elks.

Argonauts vs Elks game info

Location: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB
Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Argonauts vs Elks key injuries

Argonauts: Brandon Banks WR (Questionable), Dejon Allen WR (Questionable), Dashaun Amos DB (Questionable), Jake Reinhart LS (Questionable), Eric Rogers WR (Questionable), Eli Mencer DL (Questionable), Ja-Gared Davis DE (Questionable), Joe Carbone FB (Questionable), Shane Ray DL (Questionable), Wynton McManis LB (Questionable), Davaris Daniels WR (Questionable).
Elks: J-Min Pelley DL (Questionable), Duron Carter DB (Questionable), Kevin Brown RB (Questionable), Tobi Antigha LB (Questionable), Kenny Lawler WR (Questionable), Vincent Forbes-MombleauWR (Questionable),Keisean Lucier-South DL (Questionable), Mark McLaurin DB (Questionable), Nyles Morgan LB (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Argonauts vs Elks weather

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