Alouettes vs Blue Bombers Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Week 1

The Montreal Alouettes scored 28 points to win last year's Grey Cup, but their offense has lost several key pieces. As for their defense, that remains strong, and both should be reasons why the Under hits.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Jun 5, 2024 • 15:34 ET • 4 min read
Blue Bombers Alouettes CFL
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The 2024 CFL season kicks off on Thursday night with a rematch of last year's Grey Cup between the Montreal Alouettes and Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Montreal won that game 28-24, but my Alouettes vs. Blue Bombers predictions expect a lower-scoring contest. Here are my best CFL picks for this June 6 matchup.

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers prediction

My best bet
Under 48 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis
The Montreal Alouettes caught fire down the stretch last year to win their first Grey Cup since 2010. While Cody Fajardo was named Grey Cup MVP after throwing for 290 yards, it was an outlier performance for a QB who tends to be a bit inconsistent.

Let's not forget Montreal was held to 17 and three points, respectively, in the first two meetings between these teams last year, and Fajardo looked shaky in both games. 

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have boasted one of the league's top defenses for years and they return nine starters from last season — including three-time CFL Most Outstanding Defensive Player Adam Bighill. They're usually even tougher to score against at home, where a jam-packed and boisterous stadium can make life hell for visitors.

The Als lost their best receiver, Austin Mack, to the NFL while running back William Stanback departed for BC. With those losses, Montreal's offense should take a step back, but the stingy defense that spearheaded the title run returns intact.

The Als went 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their final eight games last year and held foes to just 15.4 ppg over that span. The weakest part of their stop unit was the defensive line, which has been upgraded, while their secondary and linebacker corps will be just as good as last year.

It isn't easy to stop this explosive Bombers aerial attack, but the Als have the personnel to at least hold it in check. However, they don't have the firepower to put up many points of their own. 

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 48

Cody Fajardo Under 260.5 passing yards

Blue Bombers moneyline

Brady Oliveira Over 85.5 rushing yards

As explained above, I don't expect Fajardo to replicate his success in the Grey Cup here. The Bombers have plenty of experience game-planning against Fajardo from his time with Saskatchewan, and defensive coach Richie Hall will be sure to cook up something to slow down Montreal's passing game.

While I'm not willing to lay 7.5 points against the defending champs, I do like the Bombers to win here. They've been dominant at home for the last several years, and their lineup continuity will be a big help at the start of the season.

Oliveira rushed for 1,534 yards last year and the Bombers were fortunate to resign him in the offseason. The workhorse RB rushed for 110+ yards in both regular season clashes with Montreal and churned out another 119 yards in the Grey Cup.

The Als have a terrific pass defense, but they aren't quite as tough against the run, and they'll likely focus on limiting deep plays, which will open things up for Oliveira in the box. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers odds

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers live odds

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers opening odds

  • Spread: Montreal +6.5 (-110) | Winnipeg -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Montreal +240 | Winnipeg -300
  • Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) | Under 48 (-110)

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Alouettes went 6-7 SU and ATS in their first 13 games last season but went 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their final eight contests.
  • The Bombers went 15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS, and 14-6 O/U last year.
  • Winnipeg has gone 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 home games at home.
  • The Bombers have one of the best offenses in the CFL, led by two-time MOP Zach Collaros at QB.

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers trend

The Under is 7-3 in Montreal's last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Alouettes vs. Blue Bombers.

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers game info

Location: Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg, MB
Date: Thursday, 6-6-2024
Kick-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers key injuries

Alouettes: Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Wes Sutton DB (Out), Dylan Wynn DT (Out), Jesse Gibbon OG (Out).
Blue Bombers: None.
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Alouettes vs Blue Bombers weather

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