Alouettes vs Argonauts Week 21 Picks and Predictions: Both Teams Are Gearing Up for the Playoffs

Toronto and Montreal meet up in a potential preview of the Eastern Final. With both teams locked into their current playoff seed, we're fading Montreal's offense which won't be operating at 100%. Find out more in our Alouettes vs. Argonauts betting picks.

Oct 27, 2022 • 16:23 ET • 4 min read

Week 21 is the final weekend in the CFL regular season, and we get a rematch on Friday night with the Montreal Alouettes taking on the Toronto Argonauts.

The Argos edged the Als 24-23 last week to clinch first place in the East Division, and with a first-round bye secured, they will start backup quarterback Chad Kelly on Friday. The Boatmen opened as 3.5-point home favorites before that line slimmed to -3.

Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Argonauts on October 28.

Alouettes vs Argonauts best odds

Alouettes vs Argonauts picks and predictions

It's tough to handicap this game since neither team has anything to play for, and both could rest starters on both sides of the ball.

With so much uncertainty in terms of personnel, I'm reluctant to bet on the spread. However, we do know who they will have at quarterback, which has me more confident in betting the Under on Montreal's team total. 

The Alouettes will rest starting QB Trevor Harris and go with a platoon of Dominique Davis and Davis Alexander. Alexander is a rookie that looked very sharp in the preseason but has never taken a snap as a pro. 

Davis is a short-yardage specialist who has rushed for 12 touchdowns this season. He's a career backup with limited passing ability and has thrown 12 touchdowns with 20 interceptions in his career. 

Regardless of who is throwing the ball, I don't like their chances of moving the ball, especially with Als center Sean Jamieson and their two best receivers (Eugene Lewis and Reggie White Jr.) sitting out practice this week.

The Argos have been playing most of their defenders in practice this week, and even if they choose to rest a few of them, they have enough depth to limit a pair of backup quarterbacks in what will likely be a vanilla offense.

My best bet: Alouettes team total Under 22.5 (-108 at BetRegal)

Alouettes vs Argonauts spread analysis

These teams played a tense contest in Montreal last week, with the Argos entering the fourth quarter with a 16-6 lead. The Als stormed back to tie it up with less than a minute on the clock, but the Argos ended up winning on a missed field goal as time expired. 

That victory clinched the division title for the Argos, who, after this weekend, will get to enjoy a bye before hosting the Eastern Final on November 13. Meanwhile, the Als will have to settle for a home playoff date with the Ticats next week, regardless of what happens on Friday.

The Alouettes lost to the Argos by a single point in their other meeting this season as well. Montreal kicker David Cote missed a potential game-winning 21-yard field goal with less than a minute on the clock, leading to a 20-19 Toronto victory in Week 2. 

These are two very closely matched teams, and both have played well lately. The Als are 6-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS) in their last nine games, while the Argos have won seven of their last eight contests, going 5-2-1 ATS over that span.

That said, this contest will likely come down to depth and which side wants it more. 

Alouettes vs Argonauts Over/Under analysis

The Als aren't the only side that is resting their starting QB, with the Argos going with the rookie Chad Kelly who was a former college star at Mississippi. 

The nephew of Bills great Jim Kelly, Chad wasn't able to stick around in the NFL (in part due to off-field issues), but he has talent and could be an impact player at this level.

It's tough to say how much of a downgrade (if any) Kelly is from usual starter McLeod Bethel-Thompson, but it says a lot that Toronto's team total has stayed the same despite the news.

We're a bit unsure about who we'll see on defense from either team. However, it's worth mentioning that Montreal rested stud defensive tackle Almondo Sewell on Wednesday while several other starters in Raheem Wilson, Micah Awe, Nafees Lyon, and Thomas Costigan are banged up and also haven't practiced.

Toronto's defense has allowed just 22.8 points per game and leads the league with 27 interceptions. The Argos have also battled through injuries on their defensive line and in their secondary all season, so even if they play some backups, they'll have guys with experience on the field.

Alouettes vs Argonauts trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Alouettes' last six games while going 5-2 in the Argos' previous seven contests. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Argonauts.

Alouettes vs Argonauts game info

Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Date: Saturday, October 29, 2022
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Alouettes vs Argonauts key injuries

Alouettes: Reggie White Jr. WR (Questionable), Sean Jamieson C (Questionable), Micah Awe LB (Questionable), Nafees Lyon CB (Questionable), Raheem Wilson DB (Questionable), Thomas Costigan DL (Questionable), Greg Reid DB (Out).

Argonauts: Isiah Cage OT (Questionable), Trevon Tate OT (Questionable), Peter Nicastro C (Out), Wynton McManis LB (Out), Damonte Coxie WR (Out), Eric Rogers WR (Out), Shane Ray DE (Out).

Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Alouettes vs Argonauts weather

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