Andy Ruiz Jr vs Luis Ortiz Picks and Predictions: Veteran Heavyweights Go the Distance

Two Top-10 heavyweights will meet on Saturday night in Los Angeles, as Andy Ruiz Jr. will face off against Luis Ortiz in a veteran clash. With a potential title fight with Deontay Wilder on the line, our picks and predictions break down Ruiz Jr. vs. Ortiz.

Sep 1, 2022 • 20:46 ET • 4 min read
Andy Ruiz heavyweight boxing
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Andy Ruiz Jr. vs. Luis Ortiz is scheduled for 12 rounds in the heavyweight division at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. 

This fight, between two Top-10 heavyweights, may not have any titles on the line, but can potentially set up a mega fight in 2023 with fellow Premier Boxing Champions stablemate Deontay Wilder.

Ex-champion Ruiz is a massive favorite to win the bout, coming in as a -380 favorite. Ortiz, who is beginning to show signs of decline, comes in as a moderate underdog at +275. We break this fight down in our Ruiz vs. Ortiz picks and predictions.

Andy Ruiz Jr vs Luis Ortiz odds

Method of victory Andy Ruiz Jr Luis Ortiz
Win outright -380 +275
Win by KO/TKO -135 +550
Win by points or decision +260 +650
Draw +1,800 +1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of August 31, 2022.

Andy Ruiz Jr vs Luis Ortiz betting predictions

Picks made on September 1. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Andy Ruiz Jr vs Luis Ortiz

When considering a subtitle for marketing purposes, it wouldn't surprise us if the fight was dubbed “The Battle of the Overs,” as we have the division’s biggest overachiever facing off against its most overestimated fighter. 

Ruiz, despite having a reputation of being lazy and showing a lack of dedication to his craft, is boxing’s first heavyweight champion of Mexican heritage and won that fight as a late substitute against Anthony Joshua in 2020. 

Ortiz is the boxing purist's dream of a Cuban boxer with impeccable stopping power, though he’s shown that solely against mid-tier opponents and may best be known for losing two fights to ex-champ Deontay Wilder in fights he was on the verge of winning.

Both fighters have been relatively inactive since 2020, but a win here boosts their chances at another major fight in the division. Ruiz was last seen bouncing back from a loss in the Joshua rematch, outpointing fellow Mexican slugger Cris Arreola in May 2021 with new trainer Eddy Reynoso in his corner. 

Ortiz looked every bit of his 43 years of age, struggling mightily until finally stopping Charles Martin in six rounds last January.

This fight mostly comes down to Ruiz’s activity vs. Ortiz’s power. Shot for shot, Ortiz is the harder puncher and could turn out Ruiz’s lights with a well-timed counter punch. At the same time, Ruiz has incredibly fast hands and the division’s best combination punching, and it isn’t improbable that he could overwhelm the tentative Cuban with his activity. 

The biggest factor that may influence this fight is Ruiz’s conditioning. If Ruiz has remained disciplined after such a long layoff and is in fighting shape, he’ll be too busy for Ortiz to land that money punch. If he shows up slow and sluggish, however, it may give his older foe the methodical pace and open window he’ll need to keep him relevant in the twilight of his career.

Expect Ruiz to employ a strategy meant to smother Ortiz and limit his counterpunching, which could be made easy by Ortiz’s offensive lapses. Ortiz would be best suited to utilizing his superior height and reach advantages to keep Ruiz outside, timing him with his southpaw jab and big right hook but must show he can fight him on the inside as well.

Andy Ruiz Jr vs Luis Ortiz boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction: Ruiz ML (-380)

When the master boxer Ortiz had to pick himself off the canvas twice to beat Martin earlier this year, the writing was on the wall that his time was up. Though he bailed himself out by taking advantage of Martin’s wide looping shots, he won’t find that option with a conditioned and prepared Ruiz. 

Make no mistake, the Mexican can be hit and hurt, but he cannot be discouraged to stop punching.

The threat of a stoppage will keep Ruiz honest, but Ortiz is going to let him right in to try and time him for a big shot, letting the points pile up to his detriment. Once the fight reaches the middle rounds, either Ortiz will be too fatigued to utilize his power or Ruiz gets on his bicycle to coax Ortiz into chasing him. 

For all that’s been said about his power, Ortiz doesn’t hit as hard when he has to initiate his own offense.

Oddsmakers have this fight being Ruiz’s to lose, and we tend to agree. While we’re not discounting Ortiz scoring a stoppage, we feel the mixture of combination punching and movement will be enough for Ruiz to come out the winner in this critical heavyweight clash.

Prediction: Andy Ruiz moneyline (-380 at DraftKings)

Best Bet: Ruiz by decision/technical decision (+260)

Ruiz being a big favorite isn’t odd, but it’s surprising that the likely outcome is that he stops Ortiz. Both Wilder and Martin are home run hitters, whereas Ruiz is a death by 1,000 needles type of puncher. 

Ruiz normally stops his opponents around the fourth round, and that’s not happening against a knockout artist who will be at his most dangerous while his legs are still fresh. 

There won’t be a need for Ruiz to assert himself, especially as he’ll feel Ortiz’s power and potentially hit the canvas early on. We’re going with Ruiz to survive an early rocky moment, but outhustle Ortiz for the rest of the fight to win a decision for a +260 pickup.

Prediction: Andy Ruiz by decision or technical decision (+260 at DraftKings)

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