Naoya Inoue vs. Nonito Donaire is scheduled for 12 rounds in the bantamweight division with the WBC, WBA, and IBF titles on the line on June 7 at the Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. Inoue hopes to make it 2-0 against the great Donaire, who himself hopes he can secure the biggest victory of his legendary career at age 39.
Inoue is deserving of his moniker as “The Monster,” and he is a -550 favorite. Donaire is at +350 to score the upset.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Inoue vs. Donaire on June 7.
Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire odds
| Method of victory | Naoya Inoue | Nonito Donaire |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -550 | +350 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -185 | +650 |
| Win by points or decision | +380 | +750 |
| Draw | +2,600 | +2,600 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of June 5, 2022.
Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire betting predictions
Picks made on June 5. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire betting preview
The first fight between these foes is remembered as a classic, mainly because Donaire performed better than he had any reason to and left Inoue bloodied and looking the most vulnerable we’ve seen him. In spite of that, Inoue fought through a crimson mask and a broken orbital bone to nearly stop Donaire in the fifth and eleventh rounds, winning a clear decision in the end.
Both fighters have healed up and have shown no ill effects of their clash in their fights since. Inoue has gone 3-0 with knockouts in each fight, whereas Donaire has a pair of knockouts while claiming the WBC title. There is every sign that their rematch will reflect the action from that first fight.
There are so many things Inoue does well that he is hard to plan against. A rare mix of excellent boxing technique along with blunting power, Inoue has climbed the pound-for-pound ladder and is considered to be the best active fighter in the sport. Even against an all-time great in Donaire, Inoue was able to overcome him in convincing fashion.
Donaire’s biggest advantages remain the same. He’s the naturally bigger fighter and is the only person strong enough to engage Inoue head-on. Though he had success in spots, Donaire is the one who has to adjust his strategy as he threw everything and the kitchen sink at Inoue only to get beaten in the end.
Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction
As good as the first fight was, there wasn’t much left to the imagination that a rematch would produce a different result. If anything, Inoue should be a bigger favorite considering how well he performed while compromised with injuries. And at his age, Donaire doesn’t have the legs or speed to outbox Inoue, and he has to put his hopes in another huge shot to give him a chance.
There is a chance that Donaire will land his money left-hook, but Inoue knows full well that he nearly stopped Donaire with blood pouring down his broken face. He’ll be sure to respect Donaire’s power, but might have an easier time here, as he’ll find his veteran opponent coming right to him early on.
While Donaire is hoping his bursts of speed and power can down Inoue early in the fight, that window is only going to be open for three rounds or so. Should Inoue escape calamity, he’ll start walking Donaire down and breaking him up with his crippling power.
If Donaire couldn’t beat Inoue three years ago with everything that could swing the bout in his favor, he isn’t going to beat him now. As is the cycle of life in boxing: one legend will do the job for an emerging one, and Inoue will conquer Donaire once more.
Prediction: Naoya Inoue to Win (-550 at FanDuel)
Best Bet
Unlike their first fight, Inoue will be wary of Donaire and should avoid getting caught with something early. It didn’t take long for Inoue to damage Donaire, and we don’t expect Inoue to carry Donaire at any point if he starts to hurt him.
There’s also the fact that Inoue knows exactly what to expect from Donaire. He might target Donaire’s body early to hamper his mobility, then start pouring it on him once the 39-year-old begins to dig in to try and force a big shot. It’s hard to imagine the almost 40-year-old taking the same amount of damage he did again and managing to go the 12-round distance.
We see Inoue finishing Donaire off this time, hurting him to the body early and wearing him down in the middle rounds. By the ninth round, there may not be enough left from Donaire to repel “The Monster” any further. We like Inoue to wrap things up in the ninth for a solid +1,200 pickup.
Pick: Naoya Inoue by KO, TKO, or DQ in Round 9 (+1200 at FanDuel)
