Erislandy Lara vs Gary O'Sullivan Picks: Spiked Into the Mat

Erislandy Lara has made a habit of dominating inferior opponents and on Saturday in Brooklyn, it will be no different. Lara's career is fading but Gary "Spike" O'Sullivan doesn't pose a challenge, as our boxing picks highlight.

May 28, 2022 • 11:22 ET • 4 min read
Gary O'Sullivan boxing picks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Erislandy Lara hopes to keep his Hall of Fame career alive at middleweight against trial horse Gary O’Sullivan. 

Lara vs. O’Sullivan is scheduled for 12 rounds in the middleweight division on May 28 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Former junior middleweight kingpin Lara is hoping to go on one last run, whereas O’Sullivan is trying to change his reputation as a punching bag with a funny mustache.

Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Lara vs. O’Sullivan on May 28.

Erislandy Lara vs Gary O'Sullivan odds

Method of victory Erislandy Lara Gary O'Sullivan
Win outright -1,800 +950
Win by KO/TKO -215 +1,400
Win by points or decision +185 +2,000
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 25, 2022.

Erislandy Lara vs Gary O'Sullivan betting predictions

Picks made on May 25. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Erislandy Lara vs Gary O'Sullivan betting preview

Cuba’s Lara was a mainstay of the junior middleweight division for nearly a decade, reigning as the recognized best during a seven-year title reign and regarded as one of the best tacticians in the sport. Watching Lara in his prime was a chore, as he often fought down to the level of his opponents. Now past his prime, Lara is finally moving up to middleweight.

It wasn’t too long ago that Lara was still in the mix at junior middleweight. He lost his title by split decision against Jarrett Hurd in 2018, and when Hurd showed zero interest in rematching him, he fought future champ Brian Castaño to a standstill in a fight he should have won. Since then, Lara has gone 3-0.

Whether O’Sullivan is a step up from Thomas LaManna, who Lara savaged in under two minutes last May, is to be seen. His wins have come against ho-hum opposition, and he’s taken one-sided losses to Billy Joe Saunders, Chris Eubank Jr., David Lemieux, and most recently, to Jamie Munguia. 

Lara being a big favorite here comes with some risk. He’s at the age where his athleticism and skills can leave him overnight, and he always fights at a slow pace even if he’s outclassing his opponent. O’Sullivan might make it to the later rounds if he’s able to get away with roughing Lara up.

It’s a big if, but O’Sullivan has a better chance than the odds indicate.

Erislandy Lara vs Gary O'Sullivan boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction 

At 39-years-old and never really fighting with a sense of urgency, Lara is inching closer to his past due point where he’ll take losses against fighters who have no business beating him. That won’t be the case against O’Sullivan. If anything, the Cuban can take fights like these until he’s 45 and still win.

O’Sullivan takes too many shots and won’t be able to figure out the crafty Lara, though he might be able to find some success in pressuring the older man. Being the physically bigger fighter could give the underdog a shot here, especially if he can lean on Lara and sap the energy out of his legs.

What this does come down to, though, is that a huge gap in class exists between them. Lara is a former champion who has been near the top of the pound-for-pound lists for the better part of a decade, and O’Sullivan has been the reliable resume booster that gets these jobs because of his tendency to lose. 

Lara will get his card pulled at middleweight, but not here. Expect the Cuban stylist to deliver a win against another average Joe.

Prediction: Lara to win (-2,000 at SugarHouse)

Best Bet 

Though Lara has been inactive and is aged, it will still take a fighter with special talents to knock him off. O’Sullivan isn’t a big puncher or mobile enough to trap Lara up against the ropes, and he’s likely to fall victim to Lara’s traps. If Lara gets a chance to open O’Sullivan up, he could have him in trouble with his counters.

True to form, though, is that Lara will feel O’Sullivan out and exert as much effort as needed. This may not result in an appealing bout, especially if Lara doesn’t feel like he has to step on the gas, and it’ll go to a decision. 

Because Lara might be rusty, considering his age and only logging in one round of action in over a year, taking him to outpoint O’Sullivan is the prop we like at an attractive +200.

Pick: Lara to win by decision (+200 at SugarHouse)

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