Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on July 23 from the O2 Arena in London, England.
This should be a terrific clash between heavyweight contenders, with the UFC hoping to replicate its success from a fantastic Fight Night in London back in March. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC odds opening with this fight as a pick'em, but money has since come in on Aspinall, now the favorite at -138.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall picks and predictions for tonight.
Blaydes vs Aspinall fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Blaydes vs Aspinall method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +200 | +175 |
| To win by Points | +550 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +1,600 | +500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on July 19, 2022.
Blaydes vs Aspinall picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Blaydes vs Aspinall betting preview
Curtis "Razor" Blaydes is the No. 4-ranked contender in the heavyweight division and is coming off a second-round knockout win against Chris Daukaus in March. Blaydes is 11-2 in his last 13 trips to the octagon, with his only defeats coming by way of knockout to the hardest punchers in MMA: Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis.
The 31-year-old is the best wrestler in the division and averages a whopping 6.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 42% of his significant strikes coming on the ground.
Tom Aspinall is two spots behind Blaydes in the heavyweight rankings and has won eight fights in a row, with each of those victories coming from a finish inside the first two rounds.
The 29-year-old is a perfect 5-0 in the Octagon with four Performance of the Night bonuses. He's fresh off a dominating performance against his toughest opponent to date when he faced Alexander Volkov at the O2 in March and submitted him in the first round.
Aspinall has a background in BJJ and boxing and is a very well-rounded heavyweight that combines crisp hands with advanced grappling ability.
Blaydes vs Aspinall tale of the tape
| Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| 259 lbs | Weight | 251 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 16-3 (11 KO) | Record | 12-2 (9 KO) |
Blaydes vs Aspinall UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Aspinall ML
Blaydes is coming off an impressive knockout victory against Daukaus, but his striking is still not in Aspinall's class, and we've seen it exposed in previous fights. Aspinall has better boxing fundamentals as well as quicker hands and more power.
Often when Blaydes has faced off against superior strikers, he has relied on his takedowns and top control to grind out the win, but that will be dangerous against Aspinall, who has some of the best Jiu-Jitsu and submissions in the division.
Regardless of where this fight goes, Aspinall should have the edge.
Prediction: Aspinall moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Aspinall ML
Blaydes has improved as a striker, but that skill set is still predicated on being a takedown threat. Aspinall will be less intimidated by that offensive wrestling and should be able to push Blaydes onto the backfoot with his forward pressure.
Aspinall does a great job of mixing in his stand-up and ground game and has the speed and fight IQ to take advantage of the holes in Blaydes' game.
Follow the line movement and back Aspinall at anything below -145.
Pick: Aspinall moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
